Deep low pressure moving from the upper Great Lake to Quebec pushed a secondary cold front across the region during the morning of the 29th. Strong southwest winds in the wake of the front brought down trees and power lines in parts of western New York.
Every event with a place to put it; 4 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BUF wrote it up.
Deep low pressure moving from the upper Great Lake to Quebec pushed a secondary cold front across the region during the morning of the 29th. Strong southwest winds in the wake of the front brought down trees and power lines in parts of western New York. Wind gusts were measured to 61 mph at the waterfront in the City of Buffalo, 60 mph at Dunkirk airport, and 59 mph at the Buffalo Airport.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 28, 2:52 PM EST, 16 hours 8 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
352 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIFT OUT ACROSS
ONTARIO PROVINCE AND QUEBEC TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO OUR REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS THEN LINGERING INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIFT OUT
ACROSS ONTARIO PROVINCE AND QUEBEC TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. IN THE
PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL SWING AN INITIAL TRAILING COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
OUT AHEAD OF THE INITIAL COLD FRONT...PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THIS BOUNDARY CROSSES OUR REGION.
BEHIND THIS FIRST FRONT A RELATIVE BREAK/LULL IN THE RAIN WILL
THEN FOLLOW UNTIL LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...WHEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ALONG
WITH ANOTHER NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SECOND
FRONT...SCATTERED TO BRIEFLY MORE NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THURSDAY. THIS STATED...ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
DURING THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE HELD IN CHECK BY THE COMBINATION OF
THE EXPECTED STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES...DIURNAL
INFLUENCES...AND DRYING ALOFT FOLLOWING THE SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
ALL OF THE ABOVE SAID...THE BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERN DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG WINDS...INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF
LINGERING STRONG SOUTHEASTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING 70-80
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED
BY A SECOND ROUND OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLIES ALONG/IN THE WAKE OF
THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WITH RESPECT TO THE FIRST ROUND OF SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...WEST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY THESE HAVE DROPPED OFF PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED
AS OF THIS WRITING...WHICH WILL ALLOW US TO DROP THE INITIAL ROUND
OF WIND ADVISORIES/ WARNINGS FROM LIVINGSTON COUNTY WESTWARD AS OF
4 PM. MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST THE STRONGER WINDS WILL LINGER A BIT
LONGER INTO THIS EVENING /UNTIL THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST/...SO THE INITIAL ROUND OF
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM ONTARIO COUNTY
EASTWARD.
ONCE THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLIES DIMINISH THIS EVENING...A
RELATIVE LULL WILL THEN FOLLOW OVERNIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONGER WINDS ACCOMPANIES/FOLLOWS THE PASSAGE OF THE SECONDARY
COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT/ INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND
DEVELOPING COLD AIR ADVECTION. DUE TO THE LAKE-DRIVEN FUNNELLING
EFFECTS WE TYPICALLY EXPERIENCE IN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
REGIME...THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THIS SECOND ROUND WILL BE
SITUATED IN THE USUAL AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...WHERE WIND
GUSTS TO 40-45 KNOTS WILL LIKELY BE COMMON...AND WHERE WIND
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE LOWER LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT BRIEFLY
STRENGTHENING THE LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AND SHUT
DOWN THE REMAINING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. CLOUD COVERAGE DECREASES AS
THE DRIER AIR MASS BUILDS IN.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE EAST
COAST WITH OUR REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE IN THE RAISE DURING SATURDAY. CURRENT
FORECASTS KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER RAIN JUST ON
OUR DOORSTEP MAY PUT A DAMPER ON HALLOWEEN EVENING OUTDOOR EVENTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY... LOW PRESSURE SLIPS ACROSS ONTARIO WITH AN
ASSOCIATION COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS LINGERS THE LONGEST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE CHANCE
POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON
MONDAY BEFORE LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION EKES FAR ENOUGH NORTH THAT THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES MAY
SEE A FEW SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIFT OUT
ACROSS ONTARIO PROVINCE AND QUEBEC TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. IN THE
PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL SWING AN INITIAL TRAILING COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
OUT AHEAD OF THE INITIAL COLD FRONT...PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THIS BOUNDARY CROSSES OUR REGION.
BEHIND THIS FIRST FRONT A RELATIVE BREAK/LULL IN THE RAIN WILL
FOLLOW UNTIL LATE TONIGHT/ THURSDAY MORNING...WHEN THE SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH ANOTHER NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SECOND FRONT...SCATTERED TO BRIEFLY
MORE NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY.
IN TERMS OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS...EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS AND LOCALIZED IFR OUT TO DETERIORATE TO IFR/MVFR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE INITIAL COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS
OUR REGION. THIS MIX OF IFR/MVFR WILL THEN PERSIST UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT...BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO MVFR/VFR. IN
GENERAL...THE LOWEST FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT ANY GIVEN MOMENT WILL
TEND TO BE FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WITH RESPECT TO WINDS...STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND/OR
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING LOW LEVEL JET WILL
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS THE JET SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. A RELATIVE LULL WILL
THEN FOLLOW OVERNIGHT... BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER WINDS
ACCOMPANIES/FOLLOWS THE PASSAGE OF THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THIS SECOND ROUND
WILL BE SITUATED NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT
KDKK/KBUF/KIAG/KROC/KART AND SURROUNDING AREAS WITH GUSTS TO 40-45
KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
MONDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIFT OUT ACROSS
ONTARIO PROVINCE AND QUEBEC TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND WILL SWING
AN INITIAL TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING.
LINGERING STRONG SOUTHEASTERLIES OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GALES ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO INTO THIS
EVENING...AND ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
LOWER LAKES REGION... INCLUDING THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING...RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL
BRING A SECOND ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS TO LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
ON THURSDAY...ALONG WITH ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER. THESE WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY EVENING...BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NEW YORK SHORES
OF LAKE ERIE AND THE NIAGARA RIVER IN CHAUTAUQUA AND ERIE COUNTIES.
AS WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...
WATER LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO FIVE TO SIX FEET ABOVE LOW
WATER DATUM. THESE LEVELS WOULD LIKELY NOT RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING. HOWEVER ANY PERSONS NEAR OR AT THE SHORELINE SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR THE RISE IN THE LAKE LEVELS. IN ADDITION ANY TIED OFF
BOATS OR VESSELS AT DOCKS COULD BE DAMAGED BY SUCH RAPID WATER
RISES.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ001>003-
010>012-019-020-085.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR NYZ010-019-085.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ007-008.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ007.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ006-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020-
040-041.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ020-
040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ030-042>044.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ030.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
LOZ043>045-063>065.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
LOZ042-062.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ045-065.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SLZ022.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 5 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR SLZ022-024.
&&
SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...LEVAN
LONG TERM...LEVAN
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LEVAN<!doctype html>
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</html>The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Broadcast media relayed reports of trees down scattered about the City of Buffalo.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New York in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in New York, October 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-10-01. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 605402, 605403, 605405, 605404.