High Wind in New Mexico, April 19, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
553 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
SIGNIFICANT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE
ERN PLAINS THIS MORN. NORTH WINDS OF 18 TO 30KT WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 35 AND 45KT CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NE QUARTER OF NM...
THE STRONGEST IN THE VICINITY OF UNION COUNTY BETWEEN 14Z AND 19Z
SUNDAY. THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL HELP TRIGGER ISOLATED AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVE -SHRA AND -TSRA TODAY...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MTS
AND ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN INCLUDING
KLVS...EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS MOST FAVORED. ISOLATED
EVEN HIGHER BASED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALSO ACROSS THE SW MTS THIS
AFTN. LATE TONIGHT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME NEAR MVFR CIGS
ACROSS AREAS E AND SE FROM THE E SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...337 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN OVERALL UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN
HIGH TERRAIN AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH ALL OF THIS WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY TREND BACK TOWARD NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR ALL AREAS FRIDAY AS THE CORE OF AN UPPER LOW
SLIDES OVERHEAD. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WHILE THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUE
OVER THE NORTH THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE FINAL VESTIGES OF WRAP-AROUND PRECIP ARE IMPACTING THE FRONT
RANGE OF COLORADO THIS MORNING AS EVIDENCED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS INDICATED BY THE 00Z/06Z
NAM AND HRRR GUIDANCE TO CLIP NORTHEAST NM THIS MORNING. QPF WILL
BE LIGHT WITH MOST AREAS REPORTING LESS THAN A TENTH. HIGHS AGAIN
TODAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ALL AREAS...WITH READINGS 10-15F BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE
TONIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL HELP FORCE LIGHT GAP
WINDS INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.

ONE LAST UPPER VORT TRANSLATION WITHIN NW FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING
WAVE WILL SLIDE OVER THE NORTHERN MTS AND NE PLAINS MONDAY. THIS
WILL FORCE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS NEAR THE HIGH TERRAIN
AS FAR SOUTH AS I-40. AGAIN TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH A SLIGHT
TREND TOWARD NORMAL FOR THE FAR WEST.

AN AMORPHOUS COMPLEX OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY TAKING
SHAPE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BECOME THE NEXT WEATHER PLAYER FOR
MID TO LATE WEEK. GUIDANCE SHOWS H5 HEIGHTS DEEPENING INTO A 562DM
LOW TUESDAY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE
SLIDING OVER NM. THIS WILL TREND SHOWER AND WIND ACTIVITY DOWNWARD
FOR NM. A 90-110KT 300MB JET AXIS THEN CARVES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND DEEPENS THE TROUGH INTO A TIGHTLY WOUND 550DM H5 LOW
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MID
LEVEL FLOW AND DEEPEN THE LEE SIDE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NM. WINDS
AND TEMPS WILL INCREASE OVER THE STATE WITH SOME POSSIBLE MARGINAL
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES NOTED WEDNESDAY AND/OR THURSDAY.

BEYOND THURSDAY THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
TRANSLATION OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NM BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF OPEN THE WAVE AND SLIDE DISORGANIZED
PRECIP OVER THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF FAST MOVING WEAKLY
DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND RIDGES.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WHILE SOME POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS...AS IT CURRENTLY LOOKS THE RISK
OF A RETURN OF CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HAS
DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT.

A BACK DOOR FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS MORN AND
INTO THE AFTN WILL BRING INCREASINGLY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE
NE PLAINS AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORN.
GUSTS NEAR 45 OR 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR CLAYTON THIS MORN. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT THIS AFTN. CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED AS HUMIDITIES TO REMAIN TOO HIGH. AFTN TEMPS
WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY AS COMPARED TO SATURDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT BACKS UP TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...EXPECT A
FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DUE TO UPSLOPE
FLOW...MORE SO ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS
AND LESS SO FARTHER SOUTH. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE GOOD
TO EXCELLENT MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF WEST CENTRAL AND SW NM WHERE FAIR
TO GOOD RECOVERIES TO BE THE RULE. LOW TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL WEST AND CENTRAL...A BIT BELOW EAST. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...THOUGH WILL BE INCHING UP TOWARD NORMAL ACROSS THE WEST.

LATER MON...WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NM...THOUGH
ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND TO TRIGGER A FEW HIGH BASED
BUILDUPS AND VIRGA IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY
ACTUALLY REACH THE GROUND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN...THOUGH
THE BIGGER CONCERN MAY BE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS WITH ANY VIRGA ACROSS
WESTERN NM. OTHERWISE TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO AROUND 5 DEGREES OF
NORMAL EAST...VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL WEST.

THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EARLIER SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATER MON NIGHT
INTO TUE MORN HAS BEEN MARGINALIZED AND IN SOME MODELS ELIMINATED
FROM THE SCENE COMPLETELY. STILL MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
WEAK UPSLOPE TO CREATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUE AFTN WITH
AID OF AFTN HEATING.

WED LOOKS TO BE BREEZY IN MANY AREAS...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE
STRONGEST WINDS STILL ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THU AND FRI. BUT
CRITICAL CONDITIONS HAVE SHRUNK SIGNIFICANTLY THU AND DO NOT APPEAR
AT ALL FOR FRI. THIS MAY ONLY BE A TEMPORARY REDUCTION AS FCST
MODELS SEEM TO BE IN TRANSITION AGAIN IN THEIR DEPICTION OF UPPER
LVL LOW PRESSURE EVOLUTION OFF TO OUR WEST. THE BACK DOOR FRONT WILL
BE REINFORCED ACROSS NE NM AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THERE
THU AFTN.

NO VENTILATION ISSUES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 6 DAYS...WITH MAINLY
VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENT RATES EXPECTED...THOUGH FAR NORTHEAST NM
MAY DROP INTO THE FAIR OR GOOD CATEGORIES MID TO LATE WEEK. SAT MAY
SEE SOME EROSION OF VENTILATION RATES.

43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ530.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
546 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

NMZ501>540-201200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
546 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PLAINS...PARTICULARLY OVER UNION
COUNTY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WEATHER CAN
CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

GUYER