Tornado and Hail in Arkansas, April 19, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
239 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

...SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING OVER
ARKANSAS...

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS ARE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IN THIS AFTERNOON TO
EVENING PERIOD...WITH STORMS MOVING OUT OF AR AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THEN CONVECTION CHANCES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKER UPPER SHORT
WAVE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE W TO NW UPPER FLOW FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS ARE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY WHILE
LOWERING TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN A WARM
UP.

MORNING LIGHT CONVECTION MOVED THROUGH THE AREA WITH ONLY LIGHT
RAIN AMOUNTS. THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES WERE CLEARING OVER WEST TO
CENTRAL AR AND THE HEATING IS HELPING WITH INSTABILITY. VISUAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOBE OF ENERGY ALONG THE RED RIVER AND
MOVING EAST...WHILE SOME CU IS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN AR. THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MOVED TO CENTRAL KS WHILE SHOWING
SIGNS OF OPENING UP INTO A WAVE AS COMPARED TO A CLOSED OFF LOW.
THE COLD FRONT WAS ALSO OVER CENTRAL KS TO WESTERN OK.

OVERALL TRENDS HAVE NOT CHANGED. AS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST...CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
EVENING TO AROUND MIDNIGHT. DOES APPEAR TO BE MORE LIKELY A LINE
OF STORMS WILL FORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING OVER
FAR WESTERN AR...THEN MOVE THROUGH AR THIS EVENING. ANALYSIS STILL
HAS MAIN SEVERE STORM THREAT TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A LOWER
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. WIND PROFILES NOT SHOWING MUCH
VEERING SHEAR IN THE LOWEST ATMOSPHERE...WHILE CERTAINLY ENOUGH OF
INSTABILITY (LI TO -5 TO -7 AND CAPE TO NEAR 2000 J/KG)...AND
MOISTURE AND LIFT. SE AR MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF ISOLATED
TORNADO IN THE END IF VEERING OF THE WINDS CAN OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

THE FORECAST WILL START A GOOD CHANCE OF CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE
SEVERE STORMS OVER MOST OF WESTERN TO CENTRAL AR...EARLY THEN A
BIT MORE INTO THE EVENING FOR EASTERN AR. ONCE THE LINE OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP WHEN THE MAIN LIFT MOVES INTO AR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING...IT WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE EAST WITH
A MID LEVEL AND ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ANY ISOLATED
STORMS AHEAD OF THE LINE COULD ALSO REACH SEVERE LEVELS. THE
STORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY MOVE EAST AND PUSH OUT OF AR AROUND
MIDNIGHT...WITH MUCH LIGHT CONVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT THEN
CLEARING OVERNIGHT. DRYING AND MOSTLY SUNNY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
ON MONDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SOME UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS
SEEN IN THE UPPER W TO NW FLOW...AND A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL ON MONDAY...THEN WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER LOWS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND THE PACIFIC OCEAN WITH AN UPPER RIDGE FROM EAST TEXAS TO THE
ROCKIES. THE WESTERN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
BY FRIDAY AND THE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS. THE RIDGE IS EAST
OF ARKANSAS BY SATURDAY AND THE UPPER LOW OPENS TO A TROUGH AND
MOVES TO THE PLAINS. RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES SUNDAY AND
WILL PROVIDE NORTHWEST FLOW FOR ARKANSAS.

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. A STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED OVER ARKANSAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND WILL BE PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY BY LOW PRESSURE.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF
SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     53  67  45  68 /  80  10  10  20
CAMDEN AR         54  71  46  73 /  70  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       47  64  42  65 /  70  10  10  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    52  69  46  71 /  60  10  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  54  70  47  71 /  70  10  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     56  70  48  72 /  70  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      50  68  45  69 /  40  10  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  50  65  42  67 /  70  10  10  20
NEWPORT AR        53  67  45  69 /  70  10  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     55  69  47  71 /  70  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   50  68  44  69 /  60  10  10  20
SEARCY AR         53  68  45  70 /  70  10  10  20
STUTTGART AR      55  68  47  70 /  70  10  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1053 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-201000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1053 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AFTER A LULL IN THE SHOWERS AROUND MID DAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT AREA FOR THESE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WHERE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM INTO A LINE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS BECOMING THE PRIMARY THREAT. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY COME TO
AN END AS THE STORMS PUSH EAST OF THE STATE AROUND MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON MONDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN
TO THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH OF
ARKANSAS BY MIDWEEK...WITH WEAK STORM SYSTEMS APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS
NOT EXPECTED...AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

51