High Wind in Nevada, November 24 to 25, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
954 AM PST TUE NOV 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY LEADING TO ANOTHER WARM DAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL SPREAD
MAINLY ACROSS THE SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COOLER AIR INVADING THE WHOLE AREA. AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SIERRA AND PARTS OF LINCOLN
COUNTY TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY.  COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&

.UPDATE...SATELLITE SHOWS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN LINCOLN
COUNTY. OUTSIDE OF THE HRRR, THERE IS NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA, AND AS
TEMPTING AS IT IS TO REMOVE POPS THERE, I WILL LEAVE THEM BE AS IT
WOULD ALSO PUT US OUT OF COORDINATION WITH THE SURROUNDING GRIDS.
WE SHOULD STILL SEE SHOWERS MOVE ON IN BY THE EVENING.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 125 AM PST TUE NOV 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT OUR LOCAL WEATHER IS NOW MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WILL BE SINKING INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHERE IT WILL SET UP CAMP FOR SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY IN OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM. CONSIDERED EXPANDING THE WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE
WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON REACHING THE CRITERIA
AND STRONGER WINDS WILL BE FIGHTING STUBBORN LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS.
WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY...IVE HELD OFF.  STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE SPRING MOUNTAINS WHERE WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGEST WINDS...WITH
GUSTS EXCEEDING 60 MPH POSSIBLE...ARE FAVORED BETWEEN 10PM AND
4AM...THOUGH IF THEY MATERIALIZE TO THEIR FULL POTENTIAL MAY LINGER
A BIT BEYOND THAT TIME. THIS IS PRETTY WELL COVERED BY THE CURRENT
HIGH WIND WARNING. HIGH RES MODELS DEPICT A SHARP GRADIENT IN WINDS
KEEPING MOST OF THE GUSTY WINDS WEST OF THE LAS VEGAS
VALLEY...NEGATING THE NEED FOR A WIND PRODUCT.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SLOWER TIMING OF WEATHER
FEATURES MAY RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS PERSISTING ON WEDNESDAY
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT FROM BARSTOW TO KINGMAN AND
THOSE AREAS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR WIND PRODUCTS AS WELL.

OUTSIDE OF THE WIND CONCERNS...PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
NOT BE ANYTHING REAL IMPRESSIVE. INITIAL FRONT MOVING IN FROM
CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE DECAYING AS IT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT BUT MAY HAVE ENOUGH OF A MARINE PUSH
ASSOCIATED WITH IT TO SQUEEZE OUT A HUNDREDTH OR TWO ACROSS THE
BARSTOW-DAGGETT AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OF GREATER CONSEQUENCE
IS ANY SPILLOVER PRECIP WHICH FALLS IN THE SIERRA WHICH WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW. AN INCH OF TWO OF SNOW IS TO BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
SIERRA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FURTHER EAST...A BAND OF SNOW IS LIKELY
TO DEVELOP ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND TRANSLATE
EAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. SNOW AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF LINCOLN COUNTY AS
THIS MOVES THROUGH WHICH WILL MAKE FOR WINTRY DRIVING CONDITIONS.

BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH WINDS
DECREASING AND ANY ORGANIZED AREAS OF PRECIPITATION EXITING THE
REGION. DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH MAKES THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRICKY DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR WIDESPREAD FREEZES
ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AS THE COLD TROUGH SITS OVER THE GREAT
BASIN.

.LONG TERM...THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSED LOW WOBBLING AROUND OVER MAINLY
NORTHERN NV/CA THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS
LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE MAIN THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION
WILL BE OVER THE SIERRA AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LINCOLN
COUNTY. EVEN THAT MAY BE IFFY AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS
SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MAY
PROVIDE A BOOST IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE MODELS ARE NOT IN TOTAL AGREEMENT
REGARDING THIS FEATURE. THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO FINALLY MOVE OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY LEAVING THE REGION UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. IN FACT THE LATEST MODEL
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY A BIT COOLER THAN BEFORE AND THAT
IS HOW I TRENDED THE MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY IS WITH TIMING OF
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS. GUIDANCE VARIES WIDELY BUT WILL SIDE WITH AN
ONSET AROUND NOON DUE TO A STRONG INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP STRONGER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN TOO EARLY. TURBULENCE/MOUNTAIN
WAVE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN SOME CORRIDORS. LLWS IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT AROUND INVERSION LEVEL/2KFT AGL.
ONCE SOUTHWEST WINDS REACH THE SURFACE...THEY SHOULD LAST THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP AT ALL
TERMINALS BY THE AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN WAVES AND ASSOCIATED TURBULENCE
AND LLWS STILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY AT KBIH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&

UPDATE...STACHELSKI
SHORT TERM...OUTLER
LONG TERM...HARRISON
AVIATION...STEELE

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