Although only three of the 24 counties in this South Central Nebraska area measured widespread snow accumulation of 3+ inches, several other counties experienced some unusual and memorable holiday weather between the late afternoon of Christmas Day 2015 and the early morning of Saturday the 26th. Most notably in the unusual department, a fairly narrow axis of legitimate elevated thunderstorms…
Every event with a place to put it; 12 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GID wrote it up.
Although only three of the 24 counties in this South Central Nebraska area measured widespread snow accumulation of 3+ inches, several other counties experienced some unusual and memorable holiday weather between the late afternoon of Christmas Day 2015 and the early morning of Saturday the 26th. Most notably in the unusual department, a fairly narrow axis of legitimate elevated thunderstorms blossomed between 5-9 PM from Franklin/Webster counties northeastward through the Hastings-Grand Island-Aurora-York-Osceola areas. These storms, which featured frequent lightning at times, produced a varied mix of sleet, graupel (snow pellets), freezing rain and light snow. While most places saw fairly minimal accumulation of this wintry mix, the NWS office in Hastings tallied 1.1 of graupel as thunderstorms persisted for nearly two hours. Needless to say, this event likely marked one of the only...if not the only...occurrence of Christmas thunderstorms in South Central Nebraska.
While elevated convection occurred mainly during the early evening hours in central and eastern portions of South Central Nebraska, the focus for precipitation later in the evening and into the late-night hours shifted to the north and west where slightly colder air aloft allowed plain snow to be the primary precipitation type. More specifically, a southwest-to-northeast oriented snow band overspread locations primarily northwest of a line from Beaver City-Kearney-Wolbach during the 9 PM-midnight time frame before eventually departing far northern counties such as Valley/Greeley between 3-5 AM on the 26th. While most counties within this snow zone accumulated no more than 1 to 2.5, a more concentrated swath of 3-5 targeted much of Sherman/Valley/Greeley counties. According to NWS cooperative observers, some of the highest totals featured: 4.5 at Ord, 3.5 at Arcadia and Loup City and 3.1 at Greeley. Fortunately, winds were not a major issue, averaging only 10-15 MPH from an east-northeast direction. In addition to the aforementioned round of convection and the primary snow band, there was yet another round of precipitation worthy of mention: mainly between 11 PM-4 AM, areas of steady light freezing drizzle developed within several of the same central and eastern counties that earlier had experienced thunderstorm activity. This freezing drizzle coated all elevated surfaces with a light glaze in places such as Hastings and Grand Island. However, somewhat ironically, many roadways did not become overly-slick from this freezing drizzle given that the ground was already textured by the earlier occurrence of graupel/snow pellets.
In the mid and upper levels, this complex, messy and memorable holiday weather event occurred under pronounced southwesterly flow aloft on the downstream side of an expansive, large-scale trough centered over the western United States. On the smaller scale, forcing was provided by a lead shortwave disturbance ejecting out from the parent trough through western Nebraska into South Dakota. In the lower levels at 850 millibars, precipitation development and intensity (especially the convection) was aided by a rather strong southeasterly low level jet that ramped up to around 40 knots and interacted with weak elevated instability. The complexity of the varied precipitation types over South Central Nebraska was very evident in the 850 millibar temperature gradient, as the 0 C line roughly bisected the heart of the area from southwest-to-northeast throughout this event, with southeastern counties averaging a few degrees above freezing at this level and northwestern counties a few degrees below freezing. Meanwhile, down at the surface, persistent easterly flow held all but the far southeast fringes of the area down in the 27-32 F range, promoting the various frozen precipitation types.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 25, 3:55 PM CST, 1 hour 5 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 355 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 353 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015 UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING THE AREA UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...SITTING OUT AHEAD OF A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS WHICH IS GRADUALLY PUSHING EAST. THE CWA HAS BEEN AFFECTED BY INCREASED BROADER SCALE LIFT THROUGH THE DAY...AND WHILE FOR THE MOST PART HAS BEEN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...THERE HAVE BEEN BOUTS OF SNOW/SLEET THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EVEN HAD A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES IN SMITH COUNTY KS A LITTLE BEFORE 3. AT THE SFC...WINDS HAVE BEEN BECOMING MORE E/SE WITH TIME TODAY...AND INCREASING WITH SPEED...AS THE CWA COMES UNDER MORE INFLUENCE OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER CO. THE SHORT TERM PERIOD FORECAST IS A MESSY ONE...AND CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW. MODELS HAVENT CHANGED TOO MUCH LOOKING AT THE OVERALL STORY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER SWRLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH THE NRN PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES EAST OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN WRN CONUS TROUGH...SWINGING THROUGH WRN NEB AND INTO THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT/TOMORROW. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE BACK EDGE OF THIS BOUT OF ACTIVITY IS PUSHING INTO FAR SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT ANY BREAK THERE ENDS UP BEING IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED. THERE ARE 2 AREAS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS THE LOWEST...THE ONSET OF THE MAIN PRECIP THIS EVENING/WHETHER A NARROWER BAND THAT SOME OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT ACTUALLY DEVELOPS...AND WITH THE TEMP PROFILE/PTYPE. DID BUMP UP POPS ACROSS THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF THAT INITIAL BAND SETTING UP...BUT MODELS EVEN NOW HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN ITS LOCATION. THERE ALSO CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES IN MODELS REGARDING THE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WITH SOME ON THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SIDE KEEPING MAINLY ERN/SRN LOCATIONS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL LIQUID...EVEN INTO THE FIRST PART OF TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BECAUSE OF THOSE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES...HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT A RANGE OF PRECIP TYPES...FROM SN TO RA OR EVEN SLEET. ANOTHER CONCERN IS WITH THE DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS RESULTING IN DZ/FZDZ NEEDING TO ALSO BE IN THE FORECAST. THIS ISSUE WOULD BE AN ISSUE MAINLY IN THE E/SERN HALF OF THE CWA...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THE W/NW OF IT BEING SN...OR -FZDZ IF THE DEND LAYER DRIES OUT. AS WE GET CLOSER TO/INTO THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW...POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP GREATLY LOWERS. THE MAIN STORY TURNS TO THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING A BLAST OF COLDER AIR/NRLY WINDS. EXPECTING HIGHS FOR THE DAY TO OCCUR EARLIER THAN NORMAL AND FALL/BE STEADY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHILE WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH. JUST NOT THE MOST PLEASANT OF DAYS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR A FEW DAYS...THE BETTER CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL HAS BEEN ACROSS OUR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WITH SOME ADJUSTMENT TO TOTALS AND COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORS...DECIDED TO GO WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR VALLEY/GREELEY COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WHICH AT THIS TIME HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO SEE THE HIGHER SNOW ALONG WITH ANY -FZDZ. EVENING CREW WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON 1-WHETHER THAT NARROW BAND DEVELOPS FURTHER SOUTH OF THOSE COUNTIES...AND 2-HOW MUCH OF AN ISSUE -FZDZ BECOMES. JUST NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO HAVE OTHER COUNTIES INCLUDED IN THE ADV...BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SOME ADDITIONS MAY BE NEEDED. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 353 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015 THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE TRACK OF THE STRONG WINTER STORM SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT AT THIS TIME THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE STORM TRACK WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED BELOW. SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE DUG SOUTH INTO MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. BY 6 PM SUNDAY EVENING THERE CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN PLACING THE UPPER 500 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. FROM THERE THE UPPER LOW WILL TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENTS BEGIN TO COME INTO PLAY. BY NOON ON MONDAY THE 500MB LOW COULD BE AS CLOSE AS WICHITA KANSAS ON A TRAJECTORY TOWARDS KANSAS CITY IF YOU BELIEVE THE 09Z SREF MEAN...OR PERHAPS MORE LIKELY SOMETHING CLOSER TO THE 12Z GFS...ECMWF...AND GEFS WHICH WOULD BE SOMEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN OR CENTRAL MISSOURI. THIS UPPER LOW TRACK WILL DICTATE WHERE THE HEAVY SNOW BAND WILL SET UP. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY)...AT THIS TIME THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THIS HEAVY SNOW WILL EXTEND IN A SWATH FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTHEASTERN KANSAS...AND EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. THAT BEING SAID...AT LEAST SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL LIKELY EXTEND NORTHWEST OF THIS HEAVIEST SNOW BAND...WHICH BASED ON THE MOST LIKELY STORM TRACK COULD STILL RESULT IN OUR FORECAST AREA SEEING 1 TO 5 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE UPPER STORM TRACK AFTER IT HEADS NORTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS IS HIGH AND THUS THE UNCERTAINTY IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IS ALSO HIGH. IF THE UPPER LOW WERE TO TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST MORE LIKE THE SREF MEAN THEN OUR FORECAST AREA COULD SEE SOME THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS...ALTHOUGH THAT IS A LESS LIKELY SCENARIO. ALSO POSSIBLE WOULD BE THE FURTHEREST SOUTHEAST TRACK BY THE 12Z GFS...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA COMPLETELY DRY WITH VERY MINOR AMOUNTS OF SNOW IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. WHAT IS PRETTY CERTAIN IS PRECIPITATION TYPE AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT WE GET SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY SHOULD BE SNOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. AS FOR WHERE THAT HEAVY SNOW BAND IS GOING TO SET UP...KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST. SNOWFALL TIMING...THERE COULD BE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW MAKING IT AS FAR NORTH AS OUR KANSAS COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. THEN SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY ALL AREAS UNTIL LATE EVENING WHEN SNOW COULD START TO WORK NORTH INTO OUR KANSAS COUNTIES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THIS SNOW COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS YORK AND BLUE HILL NEBRASKA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE AT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE OVER KANSAS. MONDAY IS THE DAY THAT WE STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND THAT MAY EXTEND INTO MONDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY IF THE SYSTEM WERE TO SLOW DOWN AT ALL. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE JET STREAM WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND THE MONDAY STORM SYSTEM. THEREFORE...IT WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE 20S...MAYBE SOME LOWER 30S BY FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW...BUT OVERALL IT LOOKS PRETTY DRY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015 CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA AT MIDDAY...BUT NOT A LOT HAS BEEN MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. BECAUSE OF THIS KEPT ANY PRECIP MENTION CONFINED TO A TEMPO GROUP...WILL SEE HOW ACTIVITY EVOLVES IN THE COMING HOURS. THINKING THAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK...BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP WORKS ITS WAY IN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. EVEN THIS CLOSE IN TIME...MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME VARIATION WITH EXACTLY WHERE THINGS WILL DEVELOP...WHILE MOST AGREE WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING ROUGHLY I-80 NORTH...SOME OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP NARROW BANDS IN PLACES. DO HAVE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING ON...BUT EXPECT THERE TO BE ADJUSTMENTS AS THINGS ACTUALLY DEVELOP. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR NEZ039-040. KS...NONE. && SHORT TERM...ADP LONG TERM...WESELY AVIATION...ADP
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 403 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015 CORRECTED FOR MISSPELLING KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087- 261200- PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE- SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK- GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN- WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER- 403 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. .DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE CHANCES FOR SNOW AND SLEET WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA EXPECTED TO HAVE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE BEST CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WHERE 1 TO 4 INCHES IS FORECAST. THE HIGHEST TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS FORECAST ACROSS VALLEY AND GREELEY COUNTIES...WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORY MESSAGE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A POTENT WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS BRINGING HEAVY SNOW TO PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. AT THIS TIME...THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS FORECAST TO FALL FROM SOUTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. HOWEVER...AT LEAST SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS MAY RANGE ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING UP TO 5 INCHES. THERE IS STILL A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM TRACK WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY TO INCREASE IF THE STORM SYSTEM WERE TO TRACK MORE TO THE NORTHWEST...OR DECREASE IF THIS STORM WERE TO TRACK ANY FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. PLEASE STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST IF YOU PLAN TO TRAVEL ANYWHERE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. && MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS (ALL LOWERCASE) HEINLEIN
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
12 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.
A varied mix of sleet, graupel (snow pellets), freezing rain/drizzle and light snow occurred within the county, along with rare December thunderstorm activity.
A varied mix of sleet, graupel (snow pellets), freezing rain/drizzle and light snow occurred within the county, along with rare December thunderstorm activity.
A varied mix of sleet, graupel (snow pellets), freezing rain/drizzle and light snow occurred within the county, along with rare December thunderstorm activity.
A varied mix of sleet, graupel (snow pellets), freezing rain/drizzle and light snow occurred within the county, along with rare December thunderstorm activity.
A varied mix of sleet, graupel (snow pellets), freezing rain/drizzle and light snow occurred within the county, along with rare December thunderstorm activity.
A varied mix of sleet, graupel (snow pellets), freezing rain/drizzle and light snow occurred within the county, along with rare December thunderstorm activity.
A varied mix of sleet, graupel (snow pellets), freezing rain/drizzle and light snow occurred within the county, along with rare December thunderstorm activity.
A varied mix of sleet, graupel (snow pellets), freezing rain/drizzle and light snow occurred within the county, along with rare December thunderstorm activity.
A varied mix of sleet, graupel (snow pellets), freezing rain/drizzle and light snow occurred within the county, along with rare December thunderstorm activity.
A snowfall total of 3.5 inches occurred in Loup City. Also, an NeRAIN observer reported 3.0 four miles north of Litchfield.
A snowfall total of 4.5 inches occurred in Ord. Also, a snowfall total of 3.5 inches occurred in Arcadia.
A snowfall total of 3.1 inches occurred in Greeley.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Nebraska in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Nebraska, December 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 613066, 613067, 613068, 613069, 613070, 613071, 613073, 613074, 613075, 608492, 608494, 608493.