Heavy rain and flooding affected portions of eastern Kentucky on Christmas day 2015. 75 inches of rain during this event.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
Heavy rain and flooding affected portions of eastern Kentucky on Christmas day 2015. Several locations received between 1.5 and 2.75 inches of rain during this event.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 25, 7:55 AM EST, 2 hours 20 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 755 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 755 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015 ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS NOSED IN ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THE HRRR RUNS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME CAPTURING THE NORTHEAST EXTENT OF THIS CONVECTION...BUT IT IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH THE IR SATELLITE REVEALING WARMING CLOUD TOPS. RAINFALL RATES WITHIN THE MORE INTENSE SHOWERS AND STORMS FURTHER WEST AND SOUTHWEST HAVE BEEN WELL OVER AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. STILL EXPECTING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA TO BEGIN PICKING UP THROUGH MID-DAY...WITH ALREADY MORE NUMEROUS CONVECTION STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN TENNESSEE. HAVE FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY POP GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 400 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015 THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES A DEVELOPING INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH STEMMING FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION AND NOSING UP INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY...WITH A WEAKER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOSING ITS GRIP ON THE OHIO VALLEY. ALOFT...DEEP TROUGHING IS RULING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE RIDGING IS HOLDING FAST OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS IS RESULTING IN A DEEP MOISTURE FEED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONVECTION HAS INITIATED ALONG THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AS WELL AS ACROSS THE DEEPER SOUTH...MAINLY THANKS TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT...ALTHOUGH THERE IS ALSO A WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION AS WELL. EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS ON THE FRINGE OF THE WEAKENING OHIO VALLEY PRESSURE. MANY VALLEYS HAVE DECOUPLED WITH THE THINNER CLOUD COVER EARLIER...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE MID 40S IN PLACES...ALONG WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW QUITE A BIT OF RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN QPF AMOUNTS AND EXACT PLACEMENT. AS SUCH...HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO A GENERAL BLEND OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO MAKE IT IN BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z TODAY...WITH LOCATIONS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY SEEING AMOUNTS IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE. THE SHORTER RANGE GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER PRECIP RATES...SO WILL EMPHASIZE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WITHIN THE FLOOD WATCH THAT IS ALREADY OUT. ONE FACTOR THAT COULD POTENTIALLY LIMIT THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATE ACTIVITY IN OUR AREA IS HOW WELL CONVECTION GETS ORGANIZED TO OUR SOUTH...AS SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE MODELS ARE SHOWING A POTENTIAL TO CUTOFF THE MOISTURE FEED DURING THE DAY. SHOWERS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS CLOSE BY AND AT LEAST A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS OVERHEAD. IN GENERAL...THE RAINFALL RATES SHOULD DIMINISH INTO TONIGHT...AS FORCING GRADUALLY WEAKENS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...AS THE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION AND DEEPER MOISTURE TEMPORARILY EXITS. STUCK CLOSE TO THE BLEND ON THE TEMPERATURES. TODAY WILL FEATURE ABOUT A TEN DEGREE DIFFERENCE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THANKS TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BISECTING THE AREA...WITH NEAR 60 NORTH OF I-64 AND UPPER 60S NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER. SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY BY FAR AS THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH. HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...EASILY ECLIPSING RECORDS FOR THE DATE. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 411 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015 THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN ACTIVE AND AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE. A STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER TX CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS TRUDGES EAST INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION BY MONDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY BY MONDAY NIGHT. STILL...THIS SOUTHERN FLOW PUSHES THE LOW ALONG WITH A 110 KNOT JET STREAM CROSSING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AS IT NEGATIVELY TILTS HEADING INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE NEXT WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO TX BEFORE IT TOO LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY BY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE AS WELL TRACKS NORTHEAST QUICKLY PUSHED ALONG WITH A 120 KNOT JET STREAK WITHIN A CONTINUED ACTIVE PATTERN. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SECOND MENTIONED WAVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD DIFFERS GREATLY BETWEEN THE EURO AND THE GFS WITH THE GFS SETTING UP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP FURTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE SUPER BLEND RESULTS MATCH NICELY WITH THE OVERALL MODEL TRENDS. DEALING WITH THE SPECIFICS ON SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST TO START THE DAY ON SUNDAY. EAST KENTUCKY WILL BEGIN THE DAY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH UNSEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. IN FACT...THE JKL RECORD OF 71 IS IN JEOPARDY OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN. THE FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. MINIMAL INSTABILITY BUT PLENTY OF SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA AS THE SURFACE LOW OUT WEST INTENSIFIES AND DEVELOPS A WARM THAT PUSHES FURTHER NORTH PUTTING EASTERN KENTUCKY IN MORE STRATIFORM PRECIP THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THIS...THE HEAVIER RAINFALL REMAINS OUT WEST IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY SO AT THIS TIME...NOT REAL CONCERNED FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM EXITS BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER WEATHER MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS. THE NEXT LOW TAKES A FAMILIAR TRACK AS THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT DOES DEVELOP A BIT FURTHER EAST. IN FACT THE EURO BRINGS PRECIP TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THE GFS DEVELOPS IT FURTHER EAST. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS IS QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT AND THIS IS SHOWN WITH THE SUPER BLEND PUTTING LESS POP IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SO WILL HIGHLIGHT A LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED. WE ARE TRENDING TOWARD A MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN THE COMING NEW YEAR. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 755 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015 SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL DROP DOWN TO IFR OR WORSE AT TIMES DURING THE HEAVIER CONVECTION. IN GENERAL...EXPECTING THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS TO AFFECT LOCATIONS FROM WEST TO EAST AT THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 14 AND 19Z. OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND CONTINUED IFR OR LOWER CEILINGS LOOK TO HOLD IN THEREAFTER. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE DAY. THE DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS I-64...TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER...AS A SURFACE FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR AREA. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KYZ058>060-068-069-079- 080-083>088-104-106>120. && UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 513 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015 KYZ058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-261200- ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE- MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE- MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE- LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY... STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BRODHEAD...MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE... ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...STEARNS... WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE... MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CUMBERLAND...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK... WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE... PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN... PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN... JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...COAL RUN...ELKHORN CITY... PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON 513 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE SEEN IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS EARLY TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING A RISK OF FLOODING TO THE AREA. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE A RISK OF FLOODING ALONG CREEKS...STREAMS...AND EVENTUALLY THE LARGER RIVERS IF ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL MATERIALIZES. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE POSITION AND AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN ANY REPORTS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OR FLOODING. KYZ044-050>052-261200- FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO... JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD 513 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RISK OF FLOODING ALONG CREEKS... STREAMS...AND EVENTUALLY RIVERS IF ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL MATERIALIZES. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE POSITION AND AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN ANY REPORTS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OR FLOODING THIS WEEKEND. GREIF/GEOGERIAN
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 904 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015 KYZ058-068-069-079-080-108-111-112-114>116-251445- JACKSON-ROCKCASTLE-LAUREL-PERRY-LEE-OWSLEY-WOLFE-ESTILL-BREATHITT- CLAY-PULASKI- 904 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015 ...AN AREA OF STRONG SHOWERS WILL AFFECT JACKSON...ROCKCASTLE... LAUREL...PERRY...LEE...OWSLEY...WOLFE...ESTILL...BREATHITT...CLAY... PULASKI... AT 904 AM EST...AN AREA OF STRONG SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER MCKEE...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BEATTYVILLE...MCKEE...BOONEVILLE...FINCASTLE...WANETA...LANE...HAZEL PATCH...WILLOW SHOALS...CRESSMONT...VADA...LEROSE...IDA MAY... PARROT...JEP HILL...WELCHBURG...ST. HELENS...CHESTNUTBURG... COLLINGSWORTH...ROYRADER AND TRAVELLERS REST. THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS... INTERSTATE 75 IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 42 AND 53. KENTUCKY HIGHWAY 80 IN LAUREL COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 7... AND BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 9 AND 10. KENTUCKY HIGHWAY 80 IN PULASKI COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 37 AND 40. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE SHOWERS...WHICH WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. && LAT...LON 3711 8440 3760 8397 3771 8348 3724 8350 TIME...MOT...LOC 1404Z 250DEG 48KT 3744 8399 GREIF
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
920 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
KYZ051-052-060-104-106-251500-
ROWAN-ELLIOTT-BATH-MENIFEE-MORGAN-
920 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015
...AN AREA OF STRONG SHOWERS WILL AFFECT ROWAN...ELLIOTT...BATH...
MENIFEE...MORGAN...
AT 920 AM EST...AN AREA OF STRONG SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER RATLITT...OR NEAR FRENCHBURG...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOREHEAD...SANDY HOOK...FRENCHBURG...MARSHALL...WELLINGTON...SALT
LICK...CAMPSITES IN THE INDIAN CREEK AREA OF THE DANIEL BOONE
NATIONAL FORREST...TABOR...WAGNER STORE...LYTTEN...WRIGLEY...BRUIN...
LITTLE SANDY...BLAZE...VALE...DENNISTON...BLAIRS MILLS...WAGNER...
YALE AND CORNWELL.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 64 IN EASTERN KENTUCKY NEAR MILE MARKER 137.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE SHOWERS...WHICH WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.
&&
LAT...LON 3823 8309 3818 8305 3820 8304 3821 8301
3817 8298 3818 8292 3816 8291 3811 8289
3805 8295 3803 8301 3786 8369 3789 8375
3813 8370 3824 8331 3819 8327 3819 8324
3824 8322 3827 8318
TIME...MOT...LOC 1420Z 246DEG 33KT 3803 8356
GREIFThe Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 64 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 15:14 UTC.
17 flood, 2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Stopped up culverts caused water to pond on Hwy 460 and Near Science Ridge Rd and on Hwy 599.
Minor flooding occurred along Adams Ridge Road and Hardwicks Creek Road in Clay City.
A creek was out of its banks in the Knob Lick area.
An inch of water was seen flowing across the corner of Pine Hill Road and Barnes Road.
Three to four inches of water was seen flowing across Buck Branch Road. An inch of water was seen flowing across Ryan Cemetery road.
An inch of water was seen flowing across the road between Barnesburg Road and Welborn road.
Three to four inches of water was seen flowing across Buck Branch Road. An inch of water was seen flowing across Ryan Cemetery Road.
Some nuisance flooding was reported mainly in the west end of the county where water was flowing onto roads due to clogged ditches.
Osborn and Marsh Creeks were out of their banks.
Flowing water almost reached the bottom of a car door on Mud Lick Branch Road.
High water affected roads in the Means community, but no roads were ever closed due to the water.
Lick Branch Road was impassable due to flash flooding.
A stopped up drain caused Hacker Fork Road to flood.
High water forced the closing of Hwy 460 near mile marker 1 in Means. High water also affected Hwy 713 near the Montgomery county line.
High water caused by brush backing up under a bridge lead to flooding of Little Leatherwood Creek Road.
High water affected Hwy 92.
Long Branch was out of its banks near White Mountain Road off Hwy 66.
High water affected a road in Mousie.
High water affected Bosco Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, December 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 612480, 612481, 612482, 612483, 612484, 612485, 612486, 612487, 612488, 612489, 612491, 612490, 612494, 612492, 612493, 612495, 612496, 612497, 612498.