Montana, 2015

Winter Storm in Montana, November 2 to 4, 2015

November 2 to 4, 2015 · NWS TFX · 8 events in 8 counties and zones

A storm system developed over the Great Basin and tracked northeastward into central and eastern Montana the first week of November. Heaviest snow amounts were in the mountains but the storm's impacts at lower elevations included power outages in Bozeman and numerous vehicle slide offs on area roads.

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
8

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS TFX wrote it up.

A storm system developed over the Great Basin and tracked northeastward into central and eastern Montana the first week of November. Heaviest snow amounts were in the mountains but the storm's impacts at lower elevations included power outages in Bozeman and numerous vehicle slide offs on area roads.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 2, 4:45 PM MST, 15 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 2, 4:45 PM MST, 15 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
445 PM MST MON NOV 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM IS JUST
BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT BASIN
TONIGHT AND INTO WYOMING ON TUESDAY...THEN INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
ON WEDNESDAY. THE EC/GFS/WRF ALL HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON THE
TRACK OF LOW. THE FURTHER NORTH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
GOES THE FURTHER NORTH THE MAIN AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WILL FALL. FOR
NOW...I WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CENTER THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA...MAINLY
ALONG A LINE FROM DILLON TO BIG SKY...THEN NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS
THE BIG SNOWY MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF LEWISTOWN. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD SHOULD PUSH INTO THE BOZEMAN AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...INTO
THE HELENA/LEWISTOWN AREA AROUND 2 AM...AND INTO THE GREAT FALLS
AREA AROUND 5 AM. SOME RAIN WILL MIX IN AT FIRST...THEN MOSTLY
SNOW WILL FALL AROUND DAY BREAK. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THE
GFS/WRF MODELS INDICATE TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID 30S AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS...WHICH SHOULD CHANGE SOME OF THE SNOW BACK TO
RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. THUS TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS ARE ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE RANGE NOW (AROUND AN INCH)...WITH
THE EXPECTATION OF SOME RAIN MIXING IN ON TUESDAY. IF THE
PRECIPITATION STAYS AS ALL SNOW ON TUESDAY...SNOW AMOUNTS AROUND
3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. FOR AREAS NORTH OF
GREAT FALLS...GENERALLY A SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FALLING LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY ON WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME WET
ROADWAYS COULD FREEZE OVER. ON WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION...BUT ANY NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE LITTLE. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR
WEDNESDAY. BRUSDA

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT
OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MAJOR MODEL SOLUTIONS CONCUR ON THE TIMING
AND THE EXIT OF THE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WINTER WEATHER
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE EXITED BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH COOL TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK INDUCED RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING. TIMING AND LOCATION
ARE BEGINNING TO DEVIATE ACROSS THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS...HOWEVER
THERE IS DECENT CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENT OCCURRING, AND BEING A FAST
MOVING SYSTEM THAT WILL LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION CREATED FROM THIS
EVENT. A LARGE SCALE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SHORTWAVE AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK TO
SEASONAL VALUES BY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
RIDGE IS REPLACED WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE A FEW
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW AND MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
LOCATION BEGIN TO DRAMATICALLY DIFFER ON LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE
EVENTS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL TURN COOLER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WINTER PRECIPITATION
EVENT NEXT WEEK. SUK

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 2344Z.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL DEGRADE
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA TONIGHT. AREAS OF
RAIN AND SNOW WILL CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH LOCAL MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  30  39  25  39 /  40  90  90  30
CTB  24  42  20  40 /  20  30  50  20
HLN  33  41  28  39 /  80 100  90  30
BZN  31  39  27  37 / 100 100  90  40
WEY  24  38  20  34 /  80  80  80  40
DLN  29  39  24  36 / 100 100  60  30
HVR  27  43  26  41 /  20  50  80  40
LWT  30  39  26  36 /  80 100 100  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY
FOR MTZ008-012-014-015-050>055.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR
MTZ050-054.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR MTZ008-015-055.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS

Event by event

8 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.

Winter Storm, Beaverhead

When
November 2, 5:00 PM MST to November 4, 3:00 AM MST
Where
Beaverhead forecast zone
Reported by
Mesonet

Fifteen inches of snow fell at the Lakeview Ridge SNOTEL site (elevation 7400 feet).|Additionally, eleven inches of snow fell at the Beagle Springs SNOTEL site (elevation 8850 feet).

Winter Storm, Gallatin

When
November 2, 5:00 PM MST to November 4, 3:00 AM MST
Where
Gallatin forecast zone
Reported by
Mesonet

Sixteen inches of snow fell at the Carrot Basin SNOTEL site (elevation 9000 feet).|Also, twelve inches of snow fell at the Beaver Creek SNOTEL site (elevation 7850 feet) and eleven inches fell at the Shower Falls SNOTEL site (elevation 8100 feet).

Winter Storm, Madison

When
November 2, 5:00 PM MST to November 4, 3:00 AM MST
Where
Madison forecast zone
Reported by
Mesonet

Thirteen inches of snow fell at the Albro Lake SNOTEL site (elevation 8300 feet). Additionally, twelve inches fell at the Clover Meadow SNOTEL site (elevation 8800 feet) and ten inches fell at Lakeview 18NW.

Winter Storm, Southern Lewis and Clark

When
November 3, 3:30 AM MST to November 4, 3:00 AM MST
Where
Southern Lewis and Clark forecast zone
Reported by
Mesonet

Six inches of snow fell at the Frohner Meadow SNOTEL site (elevation 6480 feet).

Winter Storm, Cascade

When
November 3, 5:00 AM MST to November 4, 3:00 AM MST
Where
Cascade forecast zone
Reported by
Trained Spotter

Six inches of snow fell at Cascade 18S.

Winter Storm, Meagher

When
November 3, 5:00 AM MST to November 4, 3:00 AM MST
Where
Meagher forecast zone
Reported by
Mesonet

Nine inches of snow fell at the Boulder Mountain SNOTEL site (elevation 7950 feet).

Winter Storm, Jefferson

When
November 3, 5:00 AM MST to November 4, 5:00 AM MST
Where
Jefferson forecast zone
Reported by
Department of Highways

Homestake Pass on I-90 reporting hazardous travel conditions due to snow-covered and icy roads.

Winter Storm, Broadwater

When
November 3, 5:00 AM MST to November 4, 5:00 AM MST
Where
Broadwater forecast zone
Reported by
Department of Highways

US-287 reporting hazardous travel conditions due to icy and snow-covered roads.

What these are

Winter Storm
A storm that brought snow, sleet or freezing rain at warning levels, usually over several hours or days.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Montana in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Montana, November 2015

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 606221, 606223, 606226, 606224, 606222, 606227, 612263, 612264.