Winter Weather in Nevada, November 2 to 3, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
340 AM PST MON NOV 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WINTER STORM IS MOVING INTO THE SIERRA AND WILL IMPACT NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH TODAY WITH RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW. THE BRUNT OF THE STORM WILL AFFECT THE I-80
CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEHIND THE STORM. DRIER
WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

THE WINTER STORM HAS MOVED INTO THE SIERRA WITH SOLID SPILLOVER
INTO WESTERN NEVADA. THE PRIMARY CORE OF MOISTURE STARTED A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH THAN PROJECTED, BUT HAS SINCE BECOME MORE DIRECTED
TOWARDS THE TAHOE BASIN. ALSO, SNOW LEVELS ARE HANGING AROUND 9000
FEET, BUT ARE SLOWLY DROPPING WITH SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWING
LEVELS DOWN TO 6500 FEET BY AROUND 18Z LATER THIS MORNING. THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AREA WEBCAMS SHOW MOSTLY RAIN, BUT SOME SNOW IS
BEGINNING TO STICK. CONTINUE TO EXPECT A 1-2 FEET OF SNOW
ESPECIALLY ABOVE 8000 FEET. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE FOR AREA
PASSES WHERE 4-7 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. DID
EXTEND THE ADVISORY FOR TAHOE BASIN AND MONO COUNTY DUE TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW AHEAD OF THE 500MB TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD
BE A NUISANCE SNOW AFFECTING AFTERNOON COMMUTES FROM LAKE TAHOE
LEVEL UP TO AREA PASSES.

FOR ELEVATIONS DOWN TO 6000 FEET...COLDER SIERRA VALLEYS MAY PICK
UP AN INITIAL INCH OR TWO FROM THIS FIRST ROUND THROUGH 18Z THIS
MORNING. ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES ARE FAIRLY ISOTHERMAL RIGHT NOW, BUT
SHOULD TREND BELOW FREEZING AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH SNOW
STARTING TO ACCUMULATE ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN MOISTURE
BAND. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING MORE MOISTURE BLOSSOMING AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE 500MB TROUGH WHICH WOULD HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE TO IMPACT LOCATIONS AROUND LAKE TAHOE AND TRUCKEE WITH A
ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE AN INCH TO
THREE INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
SECOND ROUND FOR SIERRA VALLEY LOCATIONS.

RAIN CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO WESTERN NEVADA WITH SOME AREAS OF
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION OCCURRING OVER TERRAIN FEATURES. LOCATIONS
AROUND RENO HAVE PICKED UP AROUND 1/4 INCH OF RAIN SO FAR WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER 1/2 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH FROM THE HIGHWAY
395 CORRIDOR WEST INTO THE FOOTHILLS. SOME FLURRIES TO A DUSTING
OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE 500MB TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN NORTHWEST
RENO SOUTH ALONG THE CARSON RANGE TO GALENA(GENERALLY AROUND
5000FT). INCREASED QPF FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NEVADA INTO THE BASIN
AND RANGE AS ALL MODEL SUITES CONTINUE TO INCREASE MOISTURE.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MUCH COLDER WITH SNOW LEVELS
DOWN TO VALLEY FLOORS. MODELS CONTINUE TO PRESENT HIGH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE CONTENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SLIDER TYPE SYSTEM.
ANTICIPATING SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW WITH BEST CHANCES FOR NORTHERN
WASHOE COUNTY AND SURPRISE VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA. SHOWERS WILL HAVE
CONVECTIVE CHARACTERISTICS, BUT MAY NOT HAVE MUCH PUNCH BY THE
TIME THE SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE RENO AREA AS THE PARENT LOW EJECTS
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. STILL COULD SEE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS;
SOME WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOW PELLETS AND BRIEF BURSTS OF
SNOW. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE RAPID VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
AROUND THESE SHOWERS FOR AREA COMMUTERS. MORE TO COME FOR THIS
SYSTEM LATER TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE DISPLACES THE LOW BY WEDNESDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEVADA. COLDER TEMPERATURES LINGER WITH HIGHS
10-15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. BOYD

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY, BRINGING WEAK LIFT AND CONVERGENCE. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED, ALTHOUGH IT STILL WARRANTS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THURSDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE NEAR
VALLEY FLOORS IN THE WESTERN NEVADA, SO IF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER WE
COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW DOWN TO THE LOWER VALLEYS.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
ALOFT. VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL BE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME, WITH ONLY
A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING EACH DAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
TEENS AND 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND,
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS LOOK TO STAY NORTH OF OUR
AREA. WE DID KEEP IN THE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR AREAS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE. HOON

&&

.AVIATION...

STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS, ALONG WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION, ICING,
AND TURBULENCE. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 9000 FT MSL AND
EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGH THE MORNING. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH
SNOW AT KTRK/TVL AFTER 15Z ALTHOUGH RUNWAY ACCUMULATIONS FOR
KTRK/KTVL/KMMH WILL BE MINIMAL TODAY WITH 2 INCHES OR LESS. FOR THE
WESTERN NEVADA TERMINALS KRNO/KCXP/KNFL/KLOL, LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL MAY REDUCE CIG/VIS TO MVFR, BUT NO SNOW IS EXPECTED.

GUSTY SIERRA RIDGE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
UP TO 50 MPH. TURBULENCE IS LIKELY ALONG AND EAST OF THE SIERRA
CREST THROUGH TODAY. HOON

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING NVZ002.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING ABOVE 7000
     FEET FOR CAZ073.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING CAZ072.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)