Montana, 2015High Wind in Montana, January 15 to 19, 2015
January 15 to 19, 2015 · NWS TFX · 18 events in 9 counties and zones
A low pressure system off the Pacific coast caused a tightening pressure gradient that allowed strong winds aloft to mix down to the surface across much of Central Montana.
- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 18
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
A low pressure system off the Pacific coast caused a tightening pressure gradient that allowed strong winds aloft to mix down to the surface across much of Central Montana.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 15, 4:35 AM MST, 1 hour 25 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 15, 4:35 AM MST, 1 hour 25 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
435 AM MST Thu Jan 15 2015
Updated Aviation
.DISCUSSION...Today through Saturday Evening. The center of the
high pressure ridge that worked its way through WA/OR yesterday has
now reached western MT and is expected to make steady progress
through the state today. The passing ridge will bring mostly clear
skies across the central and southwest counties through this
evening, along with high temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s
for most of the region, though the Helena Valley and a few far
southwest valleys will remain in the upper 20s to around 30
degrees. Not much change in model solutions for past several runs
in their depiction of shortwave trof closely following the ridge as
it exits into the Dakotas late tonight. Moisture associated with
the trof will bring some scattered areas of light snow, mostly to
the higher elevations of the Rocky Mtn Front and some of the
southwest mtn ranges. The most notable model change was a northward
shift in the path of the jet stream, now projected come across more
of central MT on Fri. With the resulting increase in coverage of 60
mph winds in the mid- and low-levels mainly north of a
Helena-to-Great Falls line, have expanded the earlier high wind
watch to now include the western Hiline and extending south to
Cascade and southern Lewis & Clark counties. Winds in the added
area likely will begin later than along the Rocky Mtn Front and last
into mid-Friday evening.
A surface cold front will push across our region Fri night as the
trof heads into eastern MT. The drying effects of the gusty
downslope winds will limit precipitation development through the
central counties, but can't rule out some isolated rain/snow showers
as the front sweeps south. Will also be monitoring conditions for
spotty areas of freezing rain, though current model soundings
generally indicate a low probability of occurrence. Precipitation
will dissipate quickly during the Fri overnight hours and dry
conditions are forecast for Sat. The cold front will bring a
temporary break in the warming trend as high temps on Sat drop back
into the mid- and upper 30s.
Waranauskas
Saturday Night through Thursday...Progressive westerly flow aloft
coupled with embedded shortwaves and ample Pacific moisture will
keep unsettled weather over the Northern Rockies through the weekend
and early next week. Accumulating snow will be likely in the
mountains at and above pass level while windy conditions are
expected along and areas adjacent to the Rocky Mountain Front.
Forecast confidence is moderate to high regarding accumulating
mountain snow and gusty winds along the Rocky Mountain Front and
high wind and winter weather highlights may be needed. Snow amounts
Saturday night through Sunday Night will be 2 to 4 inches at pass
level with locally higher amounts above pass level. Snow levels will
be around 5000 feet so have kept a slight chance of rain and snow
across the plains/valleys. There is also the potential for high
winds greater than 58 mph along the Rocky Mountain Front and
adjacent plains Saturday night through Sunday evening as a strong
Pacific cold front moves across the region. Will continue to monitor
for possible high wind highlights. Highs on Sunday will be well
above seasonal averages.
Early next week, the overall flow aloft will shift northwesterly,
which will allow for cooler air to move into the area as well as
keep off and on chances for light snow. There is still uncertainty
regarding precipitation chances and snow amounts, but at this time
any snow accumulations should be light. Drier conditions are
expected by the middle of next week as a ridge of high pressure
begins to build over the Western U.S., though temperatures will
remain near to slightly below seasonal averages.
MLV
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
Fog has returned to the Helena Valley overnight with periods of
MVFR/IFR conditions through 15z. Fog may also affect KBZN this
morning with brief periods of MVFR conditions possible. Elsewhere,
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period with
increasing mid- and high-level clouds this afternoon. Strong
westerly flow aloft will result in gusty downslope winds and
increased mountain wave activity along the Rocky Mountain Front and
adjacent plains, including KCTB and KGTF where wind gusts of 30 to
40 kts are possible. Downslope winds will continue to strengthen on
Friday. Some mountain obscuration is possible by this evening. MLV
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 44 33 44 25 / 0 10 10 20
CTB 39 26 40 23 / 0 10 10 20
HLN 30 21 38 23 / 0 10 10 20
BZN 33 19 37 18 / 0 10 20 20
WEY 28 16 29 11 / 0 20 20 30
DLN 37 25 39 19 / 0 20 20 20
HVR 39 26 43 25 / 0 10 10 20
LWT 47 30 44 24 / 0 10 10 20
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Friday morning through Friday evening
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Liberty...Toole.
HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Friday afternoon
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.
&&
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High Wind, Eastern Glacier
- When
- January 15, 6:00 AM MST to 7:00 AM MST
- Where
- Eastern Glacier forecast zone
- Measured
- 38 kt (44 mph) measured sustained
- Reported by
- Department of Highways
High sustained winds, measured at 38KT (43MPH), were reported 1 mi E of East Glacier Park, MT at the Two Medicine Bridge DOT sensor.
High Wind, Madison
- When
- January 16, 4:00 AM MST to 9:00 AM MST
- Where
- Madison forecast zone
- Measured
- 35 kt (40 mph) measured sustained
- Reported by
- Department of Highways
High sustained winds, measured at 35KT (40MPH), were reported 4 mi NNE of McAllister, MT at the Norris Hill DOT sensor.
High Wind, Toole
- When
- January 16, 5:30 AM MST to 11:00 AM MST
- Where
- Toole forecast zone
- Measured
- 39 kt (45 mph) measured sustained
- Reported by
- Mesonet
High sustained winds, measured at 39KT (44MPH), were reported at the Sunburst, MT sensor.
High Wind, Southern Rocky Mountain Front
- When
- January 16, 6:30 AM MST to 5:00 PM MST
- Where
- Southern Rocky Mountain Front forecast zone
- Measured
- 50 kt (58 mph) measured gust
- Reported by
- Mesonet
High wind gusts, measured at 50KT (58MPH), were reported 13 mi W of Bynum, MT at the Dellwo sensor.
High Wind, Eastern Glacier
- When
- January 16, 9:45 AM MST to 11:00 AM MST
- Where
- Eastern Glacier forecast zone
- Measured
- 54 kt (62 mph) measured gust
- Reported by
- ASOS
High wind gusts, measured at 54KT (62MPH), were reported 3 mi SW of Cut Bank, MT at the Cut Bank airport ASOS.
High Wind, Cascade
- When
- January 16, 1:00 PM MST to 2:00 PM MST
- Where
- Cascade forecast zone
- Measured
- 52 kt (60 mph) measured gust
- Reported by
- RAWS
High wind gusts, measured at 52KT (60MPH), were reported 3 mi WNW of Raynesford, MT.
High Wind, Southern Lewis and Clark
- When
- January 16, 3:20 PM MST to 4:20 PM MST
- Where
- Southern Lewis and Clark forecast zone
- Measured
- 53 kt (61 mph) measured gust
- Reported by
- Department of Highways
High wind gusts, measured at 53KT (61MPH), were reported 8 mi SW of Wolf Creek, MT at the Sieben Flats DOT sensor.
High Wind, Madison
- When
- January 17, 5:00 PM MST to 6:30 PM MST
- Where
- Madison forecast zone
- Measured
- 35 kt (40 mph) measured sustained
- Reported by
- Department of Highways
High sustained winds, measured at 35KT (40MPH), were reported 4 mi NNE of McAllister, MT at the Norris Hill DOT sensor.
High Wind, North Rocky Mountain Front
- When
- January 17, 8:30 PM MST to January 18, 8:00 PM MST
- Where
- North Rocky Mountain Front forecast zone
- Measured
- 72 kt (83 mph) measured gust
- Reported by
- Department of Highways
High wind gusts, measured at 72KT (83MPH), were reported 1 mi E of East Glacier Park, MT at the Two Medicine Bridge DOT sensor.
High Wind, Southern Rocky Mountain Front
- When
- January 18, 6:00 AM MST to 8:00 PM MST
- Where
- Southern Rocky Mountain Front forecast zone
- Measured
- 74 kt (85 mph) measured gust
- Reported by
- Mesonet
High wind gusts, measured at 74KT (85MPH), were reported 13 mi W of Bynum, MT at the Dellwo sensor.
High Wind, Southern Rocky Mountain Front
- When
- January 18, 6:00 AM MST to January 19, 8:00 AM MST
- Where
- Southern Rocky Mountain Front forecast zone
- Measured
- 52 kt (60 mph) measured gust
- Reported by
- Mesonet
High wind gusts, measured at 52KT (60MPH), were reported 13 mi W of Bynum, MT at the Dellwo sensor.
High Wind, Eastern Glacier
- When
- January 18, 9:30 AM MST to 4:00 PM MST
- Where
- Eastern Glacier forecast zone
- Measured
- 36 kt (41 mph) measured sustained
- Reported by
- ASOS
High sustained winds, measured at 36KT (41MPH), were reported 3 mi SW of Cut Bank, MT at the Cut Bank airport ASOS.
High Wind, Toole
- When
- January 18, 12:00 PM MST to 4:30 PM MST
- Where
- Toole forecast zone
- Measured
- 35 kt (40 mph) measured sustained
- Reported by
- Mesonet
High sustained winds, measured at 35KT (40MPH), were reported at the Sunburst, MT sensor.
High Wind, Hill
- When
- January 18, 1:00 PM MST to 5:00 PM MST
- Where
- Hill forecast zone
- Measured
- 50 kt (58 mph) measured gust
- Reported by
- Mesonet
High wind gusts, measured at 50KT (58MPH), were reported 20 mi N of Rudyard, MT.
High Wind, Southern Rocky Mountain Front
- When
- January 18, 6:00 PM MST to January 19, 8:00 AM MST
- Where
- Southern Rocky Mountain Front forecast zone
- Measured
- 52 kt (60 mph) measured gust
- Reported by
- Mesonet
High wind gusts, measured at 52KT (60MPH), were reported 17 mi W of Pendroy, MT.
High Wind, Cascade
- When
- January 18, 6:00 PM MST to 7:00 PM MST
- Where
- Cascade forecast zone
- Measured
- 52 kt (60 mph) estimated gust
- Reported by
- Trained Spotter
High wind gusts, estimated at 52KT (60MPH), were reported 4 mi S of Cascade, MT.
High Wind, Blaine
- When
- January 18, 6:00 PM MST to 7:00 PM MST
- Where
- Blaine forecast zone
- Measured
- 55 kt (63 mph) measured gust
- Reported by
- Trained Spotter
High wind gusts, measured at 55KT (63MPH), were reported 10 mi S of Chinook, MT.
High Wind, North Rocky Mountain Front
- When
- January 19, 6:00 AM MST to 8:00 AM MST
- Where
- North Rocky Mountain Front forecast zone
- Measured
- 54 kt (62 mph) measured gust
- Reported by
- Department of Highways
High wind gusts, measured at 54KT (62MPH), were reported 1 mi E of East Glacier Park, MT at the Two Medicine Bridge DOT sensor.
- High Wind
- Sustained non-thunderstorm winds of 40 mph or more for an hour, or gusts of 58 mph or more.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
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NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 552745, 552746, 552748, 552747, 552749, 552750, 552751, 552752, 552753, 552764, 552769, 552755, 552758, 552756, 552754, 552760, 552761, 552772.