High Wind in Oregon, January 15 to 16, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
828 PM PST THU JAN 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING AS THE INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM APPEARS WELL ON TRACK.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
ONSHORE WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN ENTERING WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
ROGUE VALLEY CURRENTLY. EXPECT RAIN TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. SNOW
WILL LIKELY BE RESERVED FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5500 FEET, EXCEPT
OVER THE EAST SIDE WHERE SNOW LEVELS MAY DIP DOWN TO NEAR 4500
FEET AT TIMES. CURRENT HEADLINES LOOK OK, SO WON'T BE MAKING ANY
ADJUSTMENTS THERE.

THE FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. BUT THE BREAK WILL BE BRIEF. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE A WARM FRONT OFFSHORE THAT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD FRIDAY
EVENING...AND THEN SPREAD MORE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA INTO
SATURDAY. EXPECT WET WEATHER TO CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE. PLEASE SEE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE SPECIFICS. SOME RAIN MAY LINGER INTO
SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...THEN RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND DRY THINGS OUT. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 16/00Z TAF CYCLE...A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING RAIN, GUSTY
WINDS, AND LOWERING VIS/CEILINGS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN
AND LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AND UMPQUA AREA. EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD
INLAND OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
AT THE COAST, THE CASCADES BY MID MORNING, THEN THE EAST SIDE LATE
MORNING. THIS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VIS OVERNIGHT
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS/VIS AS THE FRONT PASSES. WINDS
WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
MVFR OR BETTER CONDITIONS. -SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 530 PM, THURSDAY JANUARY 15, 2015...A STRONG
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING...WITH GALES
CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING OVER ALL THE WATERS. AS THE FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE COAST DURING THE EVENING EXPECT WINDS TO PEAK AT
35 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 50 KT. AS WIND SEAS BUILD AND
COMBINE WITH WESTERLY SWELL, VERY STEEP AND CHAOTIC SEAS OF 11 TO
17 FT ARE EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER BY FRIDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN, GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP
SEAS. CURRENT MODELS INDICATE THAT WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT TO HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE
WATERS WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT. STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH SEAS POSSIBLY
BECOMING VERY STEEP AS WIND SEAS BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT. BUILDING WEST
SWELL WILL KEEP STEEP SEAS IN THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.
THEN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
NORTHERLY WINDS AND GRADUALLY LOWERING SEAS. -SVEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM PST THU JAN 15 2015/

DISCUSSION...FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK FOR WETTER WEATHER TO
BEGIN THIS EVENING. WINDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED PICKING UP WITH
GALES BEING REPORTED IN THE WATERS AND WEED AIRPORT IN THE SHASTA
VALLEY IS GUSTING TO 42 MPH. THERE HAVE BEEN RETURNS ON THE RADAR
FOR MOST OF THE DAY BUT MOST OF IT WAS FALLING AS VIRGA. HOWEVER,
PRECIPITATION IS STARTING TO FINALLY REACH THE GROUND AS QUAIL
PRAIRIE LOOKOUT IN CURRY COUNTY HAS MEASURED 0.07 INCHES IN THE
PAST HOUR. RAIN AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AS
THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WINDS WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY AND
WARNING CRITERIA FOR AREAS ALONG THE CURRY COAST, SHASTA VALLEY,
AND EAST SIDE AROUND THE SUMMER LAKE AREA. FOR MORE DETAILS ON
THESE HEADLINES SEE NPWMFR. WINDS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM, DUE TO
ARRIVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WILL PROBABLY NEED ANOTHER ROUND OF
ADVISORIES FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY AND EAST SIDE. WHILE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS STRONG, WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS FOR ANY CHANGES IN
THE MODELS THAT MAY LEAD TO WARNING LEVEL CRITERIA BEING MET.

WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR THESE SYSTEMS TO WORK WITH,
PRECIPITATION WILL BE PLENTIFUL. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS WITH THE
FIRST SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 2 TO 3 INCHES FOR THE CURRY
COAST WITH UP TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE COOS COAST, 0.5 TO 1 INCH FOR
WEST OF THE CASCADES AND AROUND 0.30 OR LESS FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF
THE CASCADES. THE ORIENTATION OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO MORE
PRECIPITATION FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS WHILE INLAND AREAS BOTH WEST
AND EAST OF THE CASCADES CAN EXPECT AROUND THE SAME AMOUNTS AS THE
FIRST SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER BOUT OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AGAIN LATE FRIDAY EVENING.

SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT FOR SOME EAST SIDE
LOCATIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL HOVER IN THE 4500 TO 5000 FT RANGE
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION OCCURRING AT
THE SAME TIME, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTH
AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE AS WELL. SEE WSWMFR FOR MORE DETAILS
ON THIS. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY, ABOVE 8000 FT BEFORE
THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRIDAY
EVENING SO SNOW WON'T BE A CONCERN.

BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING, RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE IN
INTENSITY AND LINGERING SHOWERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AS WEAK RIDGING
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST PACIFIC. THIS WILL BEGIN TO DRY US
OUT MONDAY, AND POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS A
RESULT. EAST PACIFIC RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD ON TUESDAY AND
THEN MOVES OVER US ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE A DRY PERIOD,
HOWEVER RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM RAINS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN NOCTURNAL VALLEY FOG FORMATION. THE FOG MAY BE STUBBORN,
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES RIGHT OVERHEAD. THE GFS
SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR RAIN REACHING THE COAST THURSDAY AS A
SYSTEM COMES OVER THE RIDGE, BUT THE ECMWF SHOWS NO SUCH THING AND
MAINTAINS HIGH PRESSURE OVER US. I WOULD TEND TO SIDE WITH THE
RIDGE AT THIS POINT. EITHER WAY, MOST OF US ARE LIKELY TO STAY DRY
ON THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED NIGHT TIME VALLEY FOG PROBLEMS. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618-619.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR ORZ030-031-624-625.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR ORZ030.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
     ORZ027-617-623.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR ORZ624.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM
	 4 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-370.

MAS/MND/TRW/SBN