A slow moving cold front and storm system produced widespread heavy rainfall and flooding across the Missouri Ozarks region.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SGF wrote it up.
A slow moving cold front and storm system produced widespread heavy rainfall and flooding across the Missouri Ozarks region.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 27, 5:34 AM CST, 4 hours 4 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
534 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0233 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
As of 3:00 am this morning, a cold front was slowly moving
through the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures are in the 60s ahead of
this front but quickly fall into the upper 30s and lower 40s
behind the passage of the front. In fact, the temperature dropped
almost 20 degrees in about 15 minutes here at the office this
morning with the passage.
PW values are impressive for this time of year with values around
1.5 inches. There is strong subtropical jet stream above the
region that is bringing in a lot of moisture over the area. It is
like a continuous conveyer belt of water just streaming in. There
are no big changes in the forecast. Widespread moderate to heavy rain
will continue to move across the Missouri Ozarks today. The
heaviest axis of rainfall will gradually shift from northwest of
the I-44 corridor southward across the I-44 corridor and southern
Missouri later today and tonight. Temperatures behind the front
will not move much today with temperatures staying in the middle
to upper 30 north of I-44 and lower to middle 40s south of I-44.
Hi-Res short term models continue to indicate that the freezing
line or 32 isotherm may reach portions of Bourbon and Crawford
Counties Kansas and portions of Vernon County Missouri this
evening and overnight. Will have to monitor how far south the
freezing line does make it.
Right now...the thinking is there will be a limited risk for light freezing
rain across those areas tonight with a very light glaze of ice
possible on exposed or elevated objects. At this time, we do not
think this will cause any travel problems for our area with the
ground temperatures rather warm. A degree will make all the
difference between just light rain or light freezing rain with
temperatures borderline of 32 or 33 degrees. The rest of the area
tonight will stay above freezing in the middle to upper 30s and a
cold rain.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 0247 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
With a large and deep upper level trough across the western U.S.,
our area will remain in a southwest flow for the weekend. Several
more impulses will ride along the upper level flow and interact
with the stalled out front to our south. This will continue the
chance for additional rainfall Saturday and Sunday. Storm total
rainfall from now through the weekend still looking at widespread
2 to 4 inches of rainfall with some amounts approaching 5 inches
across far southern Missouri south of Highway 60. Flooding of low
water crossings, streams, and rivers is a big concern over the
next few days.
The large storm system over the western U.S. will lift out across
the Central Plains and Upper Midwest by Monday. Showers will end
from southwest to northeast on Monday. The weather pattern shifts
to more of a northwesterly or westerly flow by the middle of next
week with seasonable cool and drier weather.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 0520 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
The cold front has passed east of all airports early this morning
so will not have to contend with wind shift for this round of
TAFS. Wind speeds are expected to average around 10 kts.
The main concern will be ifr to lifr ceilings during much of the
forecast period as a continuous fetch of moisture spreads
northeastward ahead of an upper level trough centered over the
southwest US. Will keep rain prevailing through at least the
first 12 hours at all airports with gradual tapering from west to
east through the evening/overnight hours.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 0247 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
Current daily rainfall records for November 27th...
Springfield 1.49 inches set back in 1917
Joplin 1.10 inches set back in 1913
Rolla-Vichy 1.51 inches set back in 1990
West Plains 1.46 inches set back in 1990
All climate sites are on track with the current rainfall forecast
to end up in the top 5 wettest November on record.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MOZ055>058-
066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
KS...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ073-097-101.
&&
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Terry
CLIMATE...GriffinHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 417 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-281030- BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON- ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS- LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON- LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE- TANEY-OZARK-OREGON- 417 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED... ELEVATED TO LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK. LIMITED ICE ACCUMULATION RISK. DISCUSSION... WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED. SOIL CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY MOIST SO ANY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL QUICKLY BECOME RUNOFF LEADING TO FLOODING. NUMEROUS LOW WATER CROSSINGS...CREEKS...AND RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME FLOODED. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK LATER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF BOURBON COUNTY AND CRAWFORD KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS VERNON COUNTY MISSOURI. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND MAY PRODUCE A THIN GLAZE OF ICE ON ELEVATED AND EXPOSED SURFACES. NO TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME BUT FORECAST AND OBSERVED TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND MAY EXTEND FLOODING CONCERNS. RESIDUAL FLOODING OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS...CREEKS....AND RIVERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. && MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE) THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER... HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE) GRIFFIN
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
19 flood, 1 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
MODOT reported that Highway 86 was closed between Newtonia and Stark City due to flooding.
Route K was closed at Route V because of flooding.
Highway 97 was closed in both directions along the Spring River.
A portion of Oak Road near Fairview was flooded.
Dry Branch Creek flooded a portion of Iris Road northeast of Neosho.
A section of Highway EE northwest of Mansfield was flooded and impassable.
A storm total rainfall report of 2.39 inches was measured.
A portion of Highway H was flooded and impassable. This flooding was near the headwaters of Mill Creek and Rocky Hollow.
Hunter Creek flooded a section of Highway EE east of Ava.
Cowskin Creek flooded a section of Highway Y.
An off duty NWS employee reported about 6 inches of water over Greenwood Road.
Excessive rainfall caused the headwaters of Bryant Creek to flood Highway U. This road was impassable.
A portion of Highway Z was flooded near Elk Creek.
Elk Creek flooded a section of Highway AB because of excessive rainfall.
A portion of Highway 95 in northwest Ozark County was flooded and impassable.
Route T south of Gainesville was closed due to Flooding.
Route V along the Little Osage River was closed due to flooding.
Highway O was closed at Spring Creek south of Alba.
Highway 181 was closed due to flooding.
Route KK was closed in Vernon County at Dry Wood Creek.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, November 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 606231, 606232, 606233, 606234, 606235, 606236, 606250, 606240, 606237, 606238, 606239, 606241, 606242, 606243, 606244, 606245, 606246, 606247, 606248, 606249.