A long duration winter storm (primarily freezing rain) event began during the evening of Nov 26th and continued into Friday Nov 27th. There was a brief 6-8 hour break in the freezing rain on Friday afternoon into Friday evening.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TOP wrote it up.
A long duration winter storm (primarily freezing rain) event began during the evening of Nov 26th and continued into Friday Nov 27th. There was a brief 6-8 hour break in the freezing rain on Friday afternoon into Friday evening. However another round of freezing rain developed and impacted much of the area on Saturday November 28th and continued through Saturday night into early Sunday morning November 29th. Light rain and freezing rain was reported on Sunday with more widespread rain, freezing rain and snow reported across north central Kansas Sunday night into early Monday morning on the 30th. For the sake of clarity this event will be split into 3 episodes, the initial freezing rain and sleet episode that occurred Thursday night through Friday and the longer, larger ice storm episode that occurred late Friday night into early Sunday morning and the final bout of freezing rain that occurred Sunday night into early Monday.
This episode deals with the second larger ice storm event.
All told, many areas of northeast Kansas received anywhere from one quarter to three quarters of an inch of ice on flat surfaces and on trees and power lines. The cumulative impacts of repeated bouts of freezing precipitation began to cause tree limbs to break, power lines to fall and associated power outages Saturday through Sunday mainly across Morris, Wabaunsee, Pottawatomie, Riley, Dickinson, Clay, Geary and Lyon counties where the greatest impacts were reported by Sunday into Monday. Thousands of residents of those counties were without power by Sunday morning. Total measured ice accumulations from official ASOS sensors for the storm period defined as 6pm Thursday through 6am Monday included: Salina (proxy for Dickinson CO) 0.59, Manhattan 0.49, Topeka Forbes Field 0.47, Emporia 0.77, Lawrence 0.22, Falls City, NE 0.32 Concordia 0.38. Those totals reflect a 4 day ice accumulation amount as reported by the ice sensors on ASOS sites. NWS Topeka issued 3 separate Warnings for this event including one ice storm warning on Sunday morning.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Topeka, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 27, 5:27 PM CST, 4 hours 33 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Topeka KS 527 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday) Issued at 259 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 Scattered freezing rain and sleet showers are now beginning to exit the forecast area as that forcing mechanism moves eastward. The thermo profile indicated by the models suggest a warm nose present over most of the area through Saturday. For tonight and early tomorrow morning temps within this melting layer will result in freezing rain across portions of east central KS, while the rest of the area should see more of a snow sleet mix. Lower in the profile temps in the sub freezing layer are cold and deep enough to refreeze some of this liquid into sleet. So expect the freezing rain and sleet mix to be the predominate precip type. During periods of no precip there is a very slight chance for freezing drizzle with the decrease in mid level lift. There should be a lull in the precip this evening before another weak shortwave lifts out over the plains during the morning hours. The precip amounts appear to be light during this period similar to today so do not expect much additional accumulations of ice or sleet. There will probably be enough though to make travel hazardous since most places have remained below freezing for a decent amount of time. The best chances for light ice accumulations will be locations along a south of I-35 through late morning with up to a tenth of an inch possible. Temperatures are then forecasted to gradually warm tomorrow, which will allow far east central KS to warm near or above freezing. Elsewhere locations stay below freezing through out the day tomorrow. The mid level lift should diminish along with saturation in the cloud growth layer mid day. Therefore the predominate precip type becomes drizzle or freezing drizzle depending on surface temp. There is a slight chance for enough lift in the warm nose for light rain or freezing rain. Again, there may be enough frozen precip to cause travel problems therefore the advisory my need to be extending through tomorrow. Will let the next shifts evaluate the potential for this period of freezing drizzle. .LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 259 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 Winter weather could possibly impact the forecast area for Saturday night through Monday as temps remain around freezing and the cutoff upper low meanders out west. Models prog the southwest flow to remain over the forecast area through Sunday. Within this pattern, models dry out mid levels of the atmosphere and forecast soundings suggest a loss of any ice within the cloud. Also there is little sign of large scale forcing within the southwest flow aloft. So forcing for precip Saturday night and Sunday shifts to isentropic surfaces which show weak lift at best. It is difficult to rule out precip chances all together since a weak perturbation within the pattern could generate some light precip. But at this time with the loss of ice and the low level cold air moderating somewhat, the most likely precip type looks to be drizzle or freezing drizzle depending on what the temp at the surface is. Any accumulations should be very light since deep layer vertical motion is progged to generally be neutral. By Sunday night, there is a consensus for energy to swing around the base of the cut off low and lift out across central and eastern KS. With the expectation for some reasonable dynamics to affect the weather, the best chances for accumulations of a wintry mix should be Sunday night. The thermal profile will again be a complicating factor as the GFS and NAM forecast soundings indicate good low level warm air advection with surface temps hovering around or just above the freezing mark across northeast and east central KS. Because of this, the forecast has only rain mentioned for eastern counties with a mix possible west of Topeka and Emporia. The only place where mid level temps appear to go below freezing for some possible snow is over north central KS from Minneapolis to Washington and points west. The upper low is progged to finally move out into the central plains on Monday. This should lift the best forcing north of the forecast area bringing an end to precip as dry air advects in from the west. Except for some low level warm air advection on Monday as a surface low develops in response to the upper dynamics, the airmass is not expected to change much. Therefore there is not a lot of change in temps. Overcast skies and weak cold air advection should keep highs in the 30s on Sunday with temps across eastern KS trending warmer due to the warm air advection into the lower and mid 40s. Lows should see a slight trend warmer from Sunday to Monday with readings generally in the upper 20s and lower 30s. For Monday night through Friday, the forecast calms down as the forecast area remains on the back side of the upper cut off low and eventually transitions to general ridging over the plains by mid week. Did not stray from the model consensus on temps which show a gradual warming trend through next week. Although there does not appear to be much warm air advection until late in the forecast period. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening) Issued at 526 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 Scattered areas of light freezing drizzle will continue to move out of the area this evening. MVFR conditions are expected to continue into the early morning hours of Saturday. IFR cigs and MVFR visibilities are introduced at 8Z for MHK and 9Z for TOP/FOE as the next round of freezing rain and sleet is expected to move across the area. Rain will taper to light freezing drizzle around midday on Saturday. && .TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for KSZ010>012- 021>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059. && SHORT TERM...Sanders LONG TERM...53 AVIATION...Baerg
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 324 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-282130- REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY- POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS- WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON- 324 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST AREAS UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY. PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN...FREEZING DRIZZLE... SLEET...AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE ENTIRE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. LOCATIONS NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF AN EMPORIA TO OTTAWA LINE CAN EXPECT UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION ON ROADS...SIDEWALKS...TREES AND POWER LINES...AS WELL AS MINOR SLEET ACCUMULATION. AREAS NORTHWEST OF AN EMPORIA TO OTTAWA LINE CAN EXPECT UP TO AN INCH OF SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATION...AND A GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING RAIN REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT. A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW IS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. AREAS WEST OF AN EMPORIA TO TOPEKA LINE ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE MIXED PRECIPITATION. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION AND ANY AMOUNTS THEY HAVE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA KANSAS. && MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP WOLTERS
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
11 ice storm. Local standard time, as filed.
Westar Energy reported numerous power outages across the county affecting over one thousand people. Outages were due to downed tree limbs on power lines and power lines failing due to around one half to three quarters of an inch of ice Sunday morning.
Westar Energy reported numerous power outages across the county affecting over one thousand people. Outages were due to downed tree limbs on power lines and power lines failing due to around one half to three quarters of an inch of ice Sunday morning.
Westar Energy reported numerous power outages across the county affecting over one thousand people. Outages were due to downed tree limbs on power lines and power lines failing due to around one half to three quarters of an inch of ice Sunday morning. County dispatch also reported tree limbs down county wide due to ice accumulation as of early Sunday morning.
Reports of one half to around three quarters of an inch of ice accumulation on elevated surfaces including trees and vehicles. Reports of large limbs down across the county and power outages from dispatch.
Several reports of power outages on Potawatomie Indian Reservation in Jackson County along with tree limbs down due to ice accumulation.
Westar Energy reports that over two thousand residents were without power in the Junction City, Fort Riley and Manhattan areas early Sunday morning due to downed power lines from ice accumulation of one half to three quarters of an inch.
Ice accumulation on trees and vehicles between one quarter to one half inch of ice around Chapman in Dickinson County early Sunday morning. Large tree limbs were reported to be down in Chapman.
COOP observer reports branches down due to ice accumulation estimated to be around three quarters of an inch on branches and elevated surfaces early Sunday morning from White City.
Branches began breaking shortly after midnight around Abilene with at least a few power lines noted down due to tree limbs breaking due to ice accumulation.
NWS techs visited the radar site in Wabaunsee County and measured one half to three quarters of an inch of radial ice accumulation on elevated surfaces that occurred through early Sunday morning. This observation was from 2 miles east of Alma.
EM reported numerous large tree limbs down due to ice accumulation throughout the county by Sunday morning. Estimates of anywhere from one quarter to as much as three quarters of an inch of ice accumulation across the county Sunday morning from the long duration event that began late Friday night and lasted on and off through Sunday morning. Sporadic power outages were also reported.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, November 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 603345, 603346, 603348, 603349, 603350, 603351, 603352, 603353, 603354, 603355, 603356.