One last period of rain, freezing rain and snow occurred Sunday night into early Monday morning across north central Kansas. The counties impacted by ice accumulations that approached one quarter of an inch were only a handful including Washington, Marshall, and Clay while the rest of the area experienced enough of a warm up to keep the bulk of the precipitation as rain or as in Ottawa, Cloud…
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The episode as NWS TOP wrote it up.
One last period of rain, freezing rain and snow occurred Sunday night into early Monday morning across north central Kansas. The counties impacted by ice accumulations that approached one quarter of an inch were only a handful including Washington, Marshall, and Clay while the rest of the area experienced enough of a warm up to keep the bulk of the precipitation as rain or as in Ottawa, Cloud and Republic Counties the amounts that fell during this period were too light to verify the last winter storm warning that was issued for those areas.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Topeka, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 29, 5:27 PM CST, 4 hours 33 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Topeka KS 527 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday) Issued at 243 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015 20Z water vapor imagery shows an upper low over UT cut off from the mean westerlies with a vort max rotating around the southwest quad of the upper low. A fetch of mid level moisture continues to feed into the central plains within southwest flow, although it is shifted a little further east. At the surface, a broad area of high pressure remains over the region. Current trends show the surface high weakening this morning. Temps have effectively been steady with overcast skies an neutral temperature advection. The weather will get worse for north central and parts of northeast KS before getting better. Models continue to show large scale forcing overspreading the forecast area as the vort max over Las Vegas lifts through the central plains late tonight. Large scale assent is progged to overspread the area leading to widespread precip overnight and Monday morning. Unfortunately the cold air at the surface is likely to remain right about where it is. Models seem to gradually be coming into agreement with the thermal profiles, although the GFS continues to be the warmer solution while the HRRR and RAP tend to keep the freezing line about where it is now. From a big picture view, temps will be steady through the night. However from a perspective of the precip type forecast, where the freezing line sets up will have a major impact. The forecast tends to regard the GFS as a slightly warm outlier which has verified to warm recently. With this in mind think an axis of freezing rain from Abilene through Marysville is probable. Models are generating between a third and a half inch of QPF with the system overnight. With temps expected to be right at or a degree or two colder than freezing, think significant ice accumulations are possible and I have a quarter to a third of an inch within that corridor. The model forecast soundings also show a small window across north central KS where there is ice in the cloud and a thermal profile hovering around freezing. This could allow for some minor accumulations of snow from Concordia to Washington and northwest. At this point it looks like there could be around an inch of snow just west of the axis if ice accumulations. From Emporia to Topeka and areas east, temperatures are expected to remain just above freezing through the night with precip remaining all rain. I am relatively confident in this scenario happening, but there is a higher than normal risk in being off on the location depending on where freezing temps set up. Will issue a warning for the areas most likely to see the damaging ice accumulations and have an advisory in the remaining north central counties for a mix of freezing rain and snow. Models are still on track in lifting the forcing north of the area during the afternoon. Therefore precip should taper off during the day. As the surface low lifts north, a Pacific cold front sweeps through shifting winds to the west with weak cold air advection occurring. Since there should not be a lot of insolation, afternoon highs Monday are not anticipated to be much more than 5 or 10 degrees warmer than the morning temps. .LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 243 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015 Tomorrow night the mid/upper level low pressure center is forecast to lift northeastward over the upper Midwest. There is the potential for a shortwave rotating around the main mid level low to pass over northeast KS during the day Tuesday. Models are indicating fairly light precip is possible near the NE state line in the form of rain or snow. After that there is a trend of quiet weather going through next weekend. This current system will push the moisture well into the gulf for several days as a reinforcing trough drops down from western Canada. Surface high pressure gradually migrates across the central US with temperatures warming into the 40s and 50s by the end of the week. Towards the end of the weekend a mid level low pressure digs over the southern Rockies and eventually the plains. This system will have some return flow ahead of it although the moisture appears limited for now. This system has a better chance of producing mostly rain. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening) Issued at 526 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015 LIFR cigs are expected throughout evening and overnight hours at all terminals. Precip should remain all rain at the Topeka terminals, while MHK is expected to transition back to -FZRA after midnight. All precip is expected to transition to light drizzle by late Monday morning. Cigs will remain border line LIFR/IFR through tomorrow evening as low status is expected to remain. && .TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Monday for KSZ009>011- 021>023-034>037. Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Monday for KSZ008-020. && SHORT TERM...Wolters LONG TERM...Sanders AVIATION...Baerg
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 315 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015 KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-302115- REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY- POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS- WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON- 315 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM COUNCIL GROVE TO SENECA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A NARROW AXIS OF FREEZING RAIN IS FORECAST TO SET UP FROM ABILENE TO MARYSVILLE. NEW ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. FURTHER NORTHWEST FROM CONCORDIA TO WASHINGTON...THE FREEZING RAIN MAY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE. BECAUSE OF THIS...WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE POSTED FOR TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY. THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS AFTER NOON. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT THE TYPE OF WINTER PRECIPITATION FALLING AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA. && MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP WOLTERS
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.
Report from EM estimated another .20 to .25 of ice accumulation from freezing rain Sunday night into early Monday morning. Report was from Marysville.
Report from EM estimated another .20 to .25 of ice accumulation from freezing rain Sunday night into early Monday morning. Report was from Washington. Additional impacts were modest due to temperatures that continued to warm and thus had changed freezing rain to rain.
Report from EM estimated another .20 to .25 of ice accumulation from freezing rain Sunday night into early Monday morning. Report was from Clay Center. Some sporadic power outages remained early Monday morning from the cumulative impact of the ice accumulation over the weekend.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, November 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 603362, 603364, 603365.