Ice Storm in Kansas, November 29 to 30, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1104 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015

A MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN REMAINING POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
PERIODIC EPISODES OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
ADDITIONAL LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND A FEW POCKETS OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET AT TIMES.

LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER
AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THE
FREEZING LINE SHOULD BEGIN TO RETREAT WEST-NORTHWEST ALLOWING
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST KS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO
TRANSITION TO LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON SUNDAY.

THE PRIMARY MID/UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN PARKED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT BASIN AREA IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. POINT
SOUNDINGS ACROSS CENTRAL KS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN ELEVATED WARM
LAYER WITH PARTIAL MELTING SUPPORTING A MIX OF ICE PELLETS AND
PERHAPS SOME SNOW WHILE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST WILL REMAIN RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON THE SFC
TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE...MAINTAINED A WINTRY MIX IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.

MAINTAINED MID POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH LARGE-
SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. DEEP LAYER WESTERLY
FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
RISING TEMPERATURES AND A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE DAY.

TUE...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S/AROUND
50.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015

RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS ARE PROGGED AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE WEEK AS A MID/UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015

A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AXIS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL KS TO
EASTERN OK WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY...KEEPING LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW AND A VERY MOIST/SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE. EXPECTING
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING
EVERYWHERE ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM WILL PERSIST FROM THE BAJA
NORTHEASTWARD TO OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SUNDAY WITH EMBEDDED
WEAK PERTURBATIONS CAPABLE OF INDUCING LIFT AND LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE HUT...ICT AND SLN TERMINALS
STAND THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
AND CERTAINLY OCCASIONAL LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE CNU TAF SITE
IS WARM ENOUGH FOR PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY.

ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE IS FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE...SUPPORTIVE OF A MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING
AND LIQUID PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING POOR FLYING
CONDITIONS AT MOST TERMINALS SUNDAY NIGHT.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    30  34  31  40 /  90  40  80  40
HUTCHINSON      29  36  29  38 /  80  40  80  40
NEWTON          30  33  31  38 / 100  40  80  50
ELDORADO        30  35  32  41 /  90  40  70  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   31  36  32  42 /  80  40  60  30
RUSSELL         25  29  28  35 /  30  30  80  50
GREAT BEND      25  32  28  36 /  40  40  80  40
SALINA          29  36  30  38 /  60  30  80  60
MCPHERSON       29  36  30  37 /  80  40  80  50
COFFEYVILLE     35  41  36  47 /  50  50  60  30
CHANUTE         33  37  35  45 /  50  50  60  40
IOLA            32  37  34  44 /  50  50  60  40
PARSONS-KPPF    34  40  36  46 /  50  50  60  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>095-098-099.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
307 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-292115-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
307 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY ADDITIONAL ICE AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SLICK AND HAZARDOUS
ROADS...ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED AND ELEVATED SURFACES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING BUT WILL
TRANSITION TO LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING RAIN AND ICE PELLETS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. ICE AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS MAY RESULT IN
CONTINUED TRAVEL CONCERNS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

RECENT HEAVY RAIN WILL LEAD TO RISES ALONG THE NEOSHO RIVER IN
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW FLOOD
STAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/