High Wind in California, November 2, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1008 AM PST MON NOV 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM.
WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
BE FELT AREA WIDE BY TUESDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE SLOWLY RETURNING TO SEASONAL
NORMALS BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.UPDATE...UPDATED THE GRIDS THIS MORNING TO REMOVE THE WIND ADVISORY
HEADLINE FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES. HAVE ALSO INCREASED
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE AREA BECAUSE EXCELLENT MIXING HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO ALREADY SURPASS THE FORECASTED HIGHS.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION...
239 AM PST MON NOV 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN PACIFIC TOWARDS THE AREA AND APPEARS TO HAVE A DECENT
MOISTURE TAP ASSOCIATED WITH IT. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN FALLING
OVERNIGHT IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN NEVADA BUT CLEAR SKIES
CONTINUE OVER THE THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 2 AM. A COUPLE OF NEW
TRENDS WERE NOTED IN THE 00Z MODEL DATA INCLUDING SLOWER TIMING FOR
BOTH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND WIND. THE WIND ADVISORY
OFFICIALLY BEGAN AT MIDNIGHT IN THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND 4 AM IN
OTHER AREAS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGESTS MORE OF A MID MORNING
TIME FRAME WHEN WINDS RAMP UP AND NEW MODEL TRENDS KEEP WINDS GOING
MOST OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT...INCLUDING THE SPRING MOUNTAINS. WILL BE
CONSIDERING EXTENDING THE ADVISORY BY ABOUT ANOTHER 6 HOURS OR SO
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

THE SYSTEM TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN KEEPS THE BEST MOISTURE
NORTH OF THE CWA SO FORECASTED QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIGHTER WITHIN THE
FORECAST AREA. ALSO, THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS LATER WITH THE
SLOWER MODEL TIMING AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST IN THE SIERRA
UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS IN THE
SIERRA LOOK CLOSER TO 3-6 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FEET WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE PEAKS. I THINK THIS JUSTIFIES THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY THERE AND WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE IT. THE SLOWER
TIMING DELAYS THE SPREADING OF PRECIP EAST OF THE SIERRA BY ABOUT 6
HRS. THIS IS PROBLEMATIC FOR THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT GOES
INTO EFFECT IN LINCOLN COUNTY AT 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON SINCE THE
PRECIP ISN'T FORECAST TO REACH LINCOLN COUNTY UNTIL AFTER 10 PM
TONIGHT. 00Z MODEL QPF AMOUNTS CAME IN LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
AND UNLESS 12Z MODELS RETURN TO A WETTER SOLUTION, THERE MAY ONLY BE
A COUPLE OF INCHES AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000 FEET. LEANING TOWARDS
CANCELLING THIS ADVISORY.

THE ARRIVAL OF A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IS THE OTHER BIG STORY.
OVERALL, TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE AT LEAST AS WARM IF NOT A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THEN THE BOTTOM FALLS OUT WITH
HIGH TEMPS 15-20 DEGREES COLDER TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SEVERAL DEGREE
DROP ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COLDER AIRMASS WILL BRING THE FIRST FREEZING
TEMPERATURES TO MANY AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER BETWEEN LAUGHLIN/BULLHEAD
CITY AND HAVASU FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP A BIT BY FRIDAY
BUT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TRAVERSE QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHALLOW
TROUGH PUSHES IN FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH LOOKS PRETTY WEAK
THROUGH SUNDAY AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR
AREA. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. &&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR A SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION GENERALLY UNDER 8 KTS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...THEN BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 KTS AND GUSTS TO
AROUND 35 KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS OF
MECHANICAL TURBULENCE LIKELY. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
TODAY THEN SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LIGHTER SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 15-30 KTS AND LOCAL GUSTS TO 50
KTS. MECHANICAL TURBULENCE IS LIKELY. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH TROUGH THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE SIERRA EARLY TODAY AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS
LATER TODAY. SHOWERS...LOWERING CIGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF LAS VEGAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

GORELOW/SALMEN/HARRISON

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