Flash Flood and Heavy Snow in California, December 13 to 14, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
405 AM PST SUN DEC 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. THIS
STORM WILL BRING MOUNTAIN SNOWS AND RAIN TO THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
AND KERN COUNTY DESERT AREAS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT WARMING TREND INTO
THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING STORM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...PRECEDED BY CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT
SPRINKLES MOVING INTO MERCED COUNTY AND YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK.
FARTHER SOUTH IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY SKIES ARE CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH JUST SOME PATCHY MAINLY LIGHT FOG.

SHORT TERM MODELS PROJECT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT AREA OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA AFTER 18Z. THE PRECIPITATION
BAND IS PROGGED TO MOVE STEADILY SOUTH INTO KERN COUNTY BY AROUND
00Z. THIS STORM BRINGS A MODERATE FETCH OF MOISTURE...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING ONE INCH. THIS WILL DROP ANOTHER
ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN THE SIERRA ZONES AND A WINTER STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF KINGS CANYON...AS WELL AS A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO THE SOUTH. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE SNOW IN THE SIERRA. SJ VALLEY RAINFALL QPF FROM THE
QUICKLY MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD TOTAL FROM AROUND A TENTH OR
TWO IN THE SOUTH TO AROUND TWO OR THREE TENTHS FARTHER NORTH. SNOW
LEVELS WILL QUICKLY DROP BELOW 4000 FEET AND AS THE PRECIPITATION
REACHES THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS THERE COULD BE A DUSTING OF SNOW
ON THE PASSES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS FOR THE
POSSIBLE SNOW AND DEVELOPING GUSTY WINDS. WINDS IN THE DESERT AND
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL BECOME BREEZY WITH THE PASSING SYSTEM
AS WELL...WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS EXPECTED BELOW MOUNTAIN PASSES.

EXPECT JUST SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS INTO MONDAY EVENING AS
THE STORM SYSTEM LIFTS OUT...FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
DURING THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO APPROACH OUR AREA
BY THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT
SOME MODEL TRENDS ARE STARTING TO SHOW THE BETTER ENERGY TRACKING
NORTH OF OUR AREA...SO THERE IS LOWER CERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO BEHIND THE CURRENT SYSTEM...THEN BEGINNING TO WARM BY MID
WEEK AND TOPPING OUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
THROUGH 18Z. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWERING ACROSS THE REGION
WITH SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AFTER 18Z...AS RAIN AND SNOW
ENTERS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-13       72:1929     32:1972     54:1929     23:1940
KFAT 12-14       74:1929     32:1972     52:1922     21:1967
KFAT 12-15       76:1958     39:1963     54:1962     25:1975

KBFL 12-13       79:1998     41:1972     54:1933     20:1901
KBFL 12-14       80:1958     36:1972     53:1950     20:1901
KBFL 12-15       79:1958     40:1992     51:2006     19:1901
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON PST MONDAY
CAZ097.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON PST MONDAY CAZ096.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON PST
MONDAY CAZ095.

&&

PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...MEADOWS
SYNOPSIS...JEB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD