High Wind in California, April 14, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
255 PM PDT TUE APR 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS
PASSED OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA EARLIER...RELATIVELY COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO ABOVE AVERAGE ON THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SECOND AND DEEPER TROF PASSED OVER THE DISTRICT OVERNIGHT AND
EARLIER TODAY WITH SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN WINDS AND TEMPERATURES.
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN BLOWING IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE
WITH GUSTS REACHING 55 MPH OVER THE KERN MTNS AND DESERTS. TEMPS
HAVE ALSO SEE BIG CHANGES AS MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS WERE RUNNING 10
TO 15 DEG-F BELOW THIS TIME ON MONDAY. WILL ALLOW THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS TO REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS STILL HAS A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE WEAK DYNAMICS AND
THE LACK OF MOISTURE PREVENTED ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FROM
OCCURRING...ANOTHER TROF AND MOISTURE STREAMING FROM THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PACIFIC MAY GIVE THE SIERRA A POSSIBLE CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW.

MODELS STILL PROGGING THE TROF TO CLOSE OFF AFTER PASSING THROUGH
THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
DIG SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...A NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP. WHILE THE SURFACE PATTERN
FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL HAVE THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/INTER-MTN WEST...A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND
BECOME ALMOST TRULY OFFSHORE. YET...A DRYING-EFFECT IS CERTAIN AS
MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES COULD DROP INTO THE TEENS TOWARD THE
LATTER PART OF THE COMING WEEK. IN ADDITION...THE MOJAVE DESERT
COULD HAVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING THIS
EVENT.

THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS SHOWING HIGH
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW. WHILE MODELS DO
ATTEMPT OF PUSH ANOTHER TROF THROUGH THE AREA TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND...THE TRAJECTORY MAY REMAIN OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...AS UNCERTAINTY DECREASES TOWARD
NEXT WEEKEND...WILL INTRODUCE A MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THE LATTER
PERIODS //SATURDAY THRU MONDAY// AS THE FAVORED AREAS REMAIN OVER
THE MTN WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SURFACE WIND GUSTING ABOVE 30KT POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THRU 03Z WED AND GUSTS TO 35-40 KT AND LOCALLY
AROUND 45 KT OVER THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN AND DESERT AREAS THRU 06Z
WED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 04-14       98:1985     52:1956     60:1985     36:1972
KFAT 04-15       96:1947     57:1988     62:1925     35:1970
KFAT 04-16       95:1947     51:1917     58:1947     35:1896

KBFL 04-14       99:1985     56:2003     62:1962     33:1893
KBFL 04-15       97:1994     57:2007     61:1947     36:1921
KBFL 04-16       97:1947     50:1995     64:1947     34:1922
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ095-098-099.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ089>091.

&&

PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...SANGER
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD