Widespread aerial flooding occurred across eastern Kentucky again on April 14th and 15th. The hardest hit areas were in Estill, Elliott, and Powell counties.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
Widespread aerial flooding occurred across eastern Kentucky again on April 14th and 15th. The hardest hit areas were in Estill, Elliott, and Powell counties.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 14, 2:25 AM EST, 2 hours 5 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 325 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD UP THE CUMBERLAND RIVER TODAY ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ALONG THE FRONT...JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK...OR PRETTY MUCH THROUGH THE HEART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE NAM HAS HAD A GREAT HANDLE ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN SO FAR...SO HELD CLOSE TO THAT MODEL THROUGH TODAY WHILE INCORPORATING THE LATEST WPC RAINFALL GUIDANCE. AS SUCH...THE INHERITED FLOOD WATCH IS WELL NEEDED AND WELL PLACED. HOWEVER...I DID EXTEND IT IN TIME A FEW HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE 14/00Z NAM IS A LITTLE SLOWER TO SHIFT THE HEAVIER PRECIP TO THE EAST. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO ADD UP TO TWO TO THREE INCHES IN A STRIPE SOUTH OF I-64 AND NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY/HWY 80...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A GENERAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE. THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER. IN FACT...SKY COVER WAS INCREASED THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW KEEPS A LOW OVERCAST IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THEIR HIGHS EARLY TODAY...AND THEN FALL BACK INTO THE 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE ON WEDNESDAY CAUSING ANOTHER INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE PATTERN HEADING THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BOTH MODELS BEGIN WITH A CLOSED LOW BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL STREAM TO THE NORTH AND SETS UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN THE SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. BY THEN...A FEW WAVES MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN STREAM AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE WESTERN GULF AND THE BAJA REGION WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A CONTINUED WET PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED. ESPECIALLY AS THE CLOSED LOW CREEPS EASTWARD. AS WELL...DURING THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME...A FEW WAVES MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER MOVING INTO THE TN VALLEY AND EAST KENTUCKY. BY THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TIME FRAME...THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE EAST INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY REGION...THIS AS A POTENT WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS BRINGS A SECOND SHOT OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA. DURING THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY TIME FRAME...ANOTHER STRONG WAVE MOVES THROUGH ALONG THE NORTHERN STREAM AND WITH THIS FEATURE...THE CLOSED LOW OPENS AND EJECTS INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION BRINGING YET ANOTHER SHOT OF RAINFALL. NEAR THE SURFACE...A REMNANT SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE THE SOUTHEAST EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND STRETCHING NORTHEAST INTO THE TN VALLEY AND INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AS A FEW WEAK COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER OH VALLEY IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW WILL BRING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. IN FACT...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOOK TO REACH A MAX OF 1.30 TO 1.50 INCHES BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW CREEPS EAST AND A STRONG SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHEAST. THIS AS THE MENTIONED NORTHERLY STREAM BRINGS A STRONG WAVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH KY AND TN. AFTERWARD...A STATIONARY BOUNDARY SETS UP ALONG THE TN AND KY BORDER PROVIDING A CONTINUED AREA OF DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY TIME FRAME OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THERE ARE SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS AND EURO...ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER OUT INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. DID STAY NEAR THE SUPER MODEL BLEND SOLUTION THROUGH THE EXTENDED. STILL THE OVERALL WET PATTERN LOOKS LIKELY...LEAVING POPS IN MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER EACH DAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT A GENERAL DECLINE IN CONDITIONS THROUGH DAWN AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FEED NORTHWARD. TAFS SHOULD TREND TOWARD IFR AT ALL LOCATIONS BY DAWN WITH ONLY A SMALL WINDOW OF IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING AGAIN TO THE IFR LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL START OUT LIGHT BUT INCREASE DURING THE DAY FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE CUMBERLAND RIVER VALLEY. THESE HIGHER WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AGAIN AFTER DARK. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE CENTERED ON THE RED RIVER BASIN...WITH MODELS INDICATING THIS BAND SHIFTING SOUTHWARD LATER THIS MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO ADD UP TO TWO TO THREE INCHES IN A STRIPE SOUTH OF I-64 AND NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A GENERAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL OF AERIAL FLOODING...THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR FLOODING ON THE RED RIVER AND ALSO ON THE KENTUCKY DOWNSTREAM OF BEATTYVILLE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-083. FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ080-084>088-104- 106>120. && SHORT TERM...ABE LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...ABE HYDROLOGY...ABE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 402 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-083-151115- FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE- JACKSON-PULASKI-WAYNE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO... JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD... IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BRODHEAD... MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET... MONTICELLO 402 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAIN WILL FALL HEAVILY AT TIMES THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS AND POOR DRAINING AREAS. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY SOME RIVER POINTS WILL APPROACH FLOOD STAGE DUE TO RUNOFF FROM THIS RAINFALL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WITH THESE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THERE MAY BE SOME INSTANCES OF FLOODING...ESPECIALLY WHERE LOCATIONS RECEIVE NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF RAINFALL. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING OR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN JACKSON KENTUCKY. KYZ080-084>088-104-106>120-151115- LAUREL-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON- WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE- LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LONDON...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY... CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE... CUMBERLAND...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE... CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT... BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN...PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE... HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ... COAL RUN...ELKHORN CITY...PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON 402 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAIN WILL FALL HEAVILY AT TIMES THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS AND POOR DRAINING AREAS. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY SOME RIVER POINTS WILL APPROACH FLOOD STAGE DUE TO RUNOFF FROM THIS RAINFALL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WITH THESE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THERE MAY BE SOME INSTANCES OF FLOODING...ESPECIALLY WHERE LOCATIONS RECEIVE NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF RAINFALL. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING OR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN JACKSON KENTUCKY. ABE
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
39 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A creek washed out Middle Fork Road.
Local law enforcement reported that a local small stream in the Salt Lick area had overrun its banks and flooded a home. The resident of the home had to be rescued.
Several inches of water was covering the intersection of Town Branch Rd and Spring Meadows Drive.
Dark Hollow Road was under water.
Little Rock Road was under water.
Flood waters were blocking Hwy 650 in the Elkfork area.
Water was observed covering Hwy 460 near Means.
The Estill county EM reported that multiple roads around the county were under water including: Dark Hollow Rd., Clear Creek Rd., and Little Rock Rd. Water was also observed flowing across Main St. in Irvine and at Estill Springs School and Hwy 89 just outside of Irvine city limits.
The city park in Brodhead was flooded. Water was also covering Burton Lane and Owens Street.
Highway 615 had a foot of water covering it.
Water of unknown depth was observed flowing across roadways in the Arkansas Creek area.
Highway 52 was closed due to flooding in the Sandfield area, near the Estill county line.
Parking lots at the Natural Bridge State Park were flooded.
North Fork Rd was under water.
Adams Ridge Rd was under water.
One lane of Maple Street was under water.
Pitts Road was flooded due to a clogged culvert.
Sunrise Valley Rd was flooded.
New Fox Rd was flooded due to a clogged culvert.
Little Doe Creek Rd was flooded.
Clear Creek Rd was flooded.
Water was covering Mark Welborn Rd.
The left fork of Abbott Creek Rd was closed due to flooding from Abbott Creek.
Several inches of water were covering Smith Branch Rd on the south fork.
Several inches of water were observed flowing across North Harper Rd.
Highway 486 near Isonville had 8 to 10 inches of water covering it.
Green Briar Rd was flooded.
Hamilton Branch Road was flooded.
Salyers Branch Road was flooded.
Middle Creek was at bankfull and about to flood the surrounding area.
Highway 15 at the Middle Fork Fire Dept was covered by 2 feet of water.
Two feet of water was observed over Highway 15 at the Middlefork Fire Department.
Highway 40 near Blacklog Fork was flooded.
Stephens Branch and Bucks Branch were both flooded.
Kentucky Hwy 613 was flooded and impassable.
Kentucky Hwy 1184 was flooded in a low lying area and was impassable.
Water was covering Driftwood Drive and KY Millers Creek Road, making the road impassable.
The entire length of KY 1329 was impassable due to flooding.
Kentucky Hwy 89 was blocked due to flooding near the Laurel county line.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, April 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 569891, 569892, 569893, 569894, 569895, 569896, 569898, 569899, 569900, 569901, 569902, 569903, 569905, 569906, 569907, 569908, 569909, 569910, 569911, 569912, 569913, 569949, 569950, 569951, 569952, 569953, 569954, 569955, 569956, 569957, 569958, 573631, 569960, 569961, 569962, 569963, 569964, 569965, 569966.