During the afternoon of January 3rd, a strong upper level low was moving through the central Plains and a cold front began to move into the region. Across the Lower Mississippi River Valley, peak heating and upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints contributed to decent instability in the developing warm sector in advance of the front.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAN wrote it up.
During the afternoon of January 3rd, a strong upper level low was moving through the central Plains and a cold front began to move into the region. Across the Lower Mississippi River Valley, peak heating and upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints contributed to decent instability in the developing warm sector in advance of the front. Strong low level wind shear and winds aloft were in place, which made a favorable environment for tornadoes. This helped to support widespread thunderstorms along with a few supercell storms.
A long lived, persistent, storm tracked across the southeastern counties (Lawrence, Jefferson Davis, Covington, Jasper and Lauderdale County) and produced eight tornadoes. Considerable damage occurred in Jasper County, north of Rose Hill, and also near Mount Olive in Covington County and Meehan and Bailey in Lauderdale County. Severe storms moved out of the region by early Saturday evening. The front slowly moved to the east through the area through the evening of January 3rd.
In addition to the severe storms and tornadoes, widespread flooding occurred in southeast Mississippi where 3-5 inches of rain fell. Record amounts of moisture for the month of January were observed in the evening weather balloon sounding at the Jackson International Airport, where precipitable water value of 1.74 inches tied the record last set on January 3, 1973. This led to widespread heavy rainfall and flooding. Water covered some roads and water was entering homes near Bay Springs, with one road washed out nearby. Some flooding also occurred by early afternoon in Chicot county. Most of the rural roads had flooding issues by early afternoon.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 3, 11:04 AM CST, 1 hour 11 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1104 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2015
.UPDATE...
THE PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING INCLUDES SHIFTING
THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK MORE INTO CENTRAL/ERN MS WHERE THE ELEVATED
THREAT FOR TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL CONTINUES. THE FORECAST IS
GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUING OVER
MOST OF THE AREA...AND ALL ELSE IS GENERALLY ON TRACK.
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY WITH MODEST HEIGHT FALLS APPROACH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE INCREASED FORCING WILL HELP TO REINVIGORATE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR AND
GUIDANCE BRINGS INTO ERN MS BY LATE THIS AFTN. THE BIG CONCERN
IS GREATER DESTABILIZATION TAKING PLACE OVER SE LA/SRN MS WITH
EFFECTIVE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/SRH (200+ M2/S2) AND SFC-BASED INSTABILITY
ON THE INCREASE THERE...WE CONTINUE TO BE CONFIDENT IN THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL AND ELEVATED THREAT AREA GENERALLY ALONG AND SE OF
THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR AS INTENSIFYING CONVECTION INTERACTS WITH
THE IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWING MID/
UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS UP TO THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AREA BY EARLY/MID AFTN.
THE LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT BROKEN LINEAR CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM MAY SOLIDIFY IN VICINITY OF CURRENT COLD POOL OVER WRN/CENTRL MS
AND GRADUALLY MOVE INTO ERN MS BY EARLY EVNG. AS THE SYSTEM SLOWS
DOWN...EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES PRODUCING LOCALIZED AREAS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER
WET GROUND. /EC/
&&
.AVIATION...A MIX OF CLOUDS AND CONVECTION WILL RESULT IN MAINLY
MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT TAF SITES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL...SOUTH...AND EAST MISSISSIPPI
(KHKS...KJAN...KGTR...KMEI...& KHBG)...AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND SOME TORNADOES. WHILE SOME LIGHT
RAIN WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION SHOULD BE
EXITING EAST AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI BETWEEN 01-03Z THIS EVENING.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH...BUT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. /19/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2015/
INCREASING RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC OUTBREAK NEXT WEEK...
SHORT TERM...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE EAST OF AREA BY EARLY MORNING
SUNDAY...AND IN THE WAKE OF IT COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE INTO AT
LEAST EARLY SUNDAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE SOME 20 DEG COOLER SUNDAY THAN
SATURDAY. WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION REGIONAL
CROSS SECTIONS HOLDS ON TO SOME LOW CLOUDS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. SO HAVE
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THAT PERIOD...WHICH WILL HINDER
RADIATIONAL COOLING. SO WENT CLOSER TO A MILDER SOLUTION FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT./17/
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM
CONTINUES TO BE THE MUCH COLDER AIR THAT IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE
ARKLAMISS REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS WEEKENDS STORM SYSTEM. A 1040MB
SURFACE HIGH WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT BUT WILL
ONLY GIVE A SHORT...GLANCING BLOW AS THIS SFC HIGH WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY. THIS SHOT OF
COLDER AIR WILL BRING SUBFREEZING LOWS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND
COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS FOR MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A SHORT MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY BEFORE A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. THE AIR BEHIND THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST WE HAVE SEEN YET.
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE IN A 1050+ MB SURFACE HIGH DIVING SOUTH
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL SPREAD A COLD AIRMASS DEEP INTO
THE SOUTH WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A HARD FREEZE...PARTICULARLY FOR
THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. THIS WOULD BRING OVERNIGHT LOWS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE TEENS AND DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY NOT
REACHING ABOVE FREEZING. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS AND 20S BUT SHOULD GET ENOUGH WARMTH ON
THURSDAY TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S/AROUND 40. GIVEN THE TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...THIS WILL CREATE WIND CHILL READINGS INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS. OVERALL THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO AN
EXTREMELY COLD AND RAW PERIOD AS THE SFC HIGH STICKS AROUND OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. /28/
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MSZ030-031-033-038-
039-045-046-051-052-056>058-064>066-072>074.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-
025>029-032-034>037-040>044-047>050-053>055-059>063.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-
016-023>026.
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.
&&HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 1000 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2015 ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-023-024-MSZ018-034-040000- ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND- FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-BOLIVAR-WASHINGTON- 1000 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. LAZ016-025-026-MSZ019-025>027-035-040>042-047-053-060-040000- MADISON LA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL- HUMPHREYS-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-WARREN-CLAIBORNE-ADAMS- 1000 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT TORNADOES THREAT...LIMITED TIMING...TODAY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...LIMITED TIMING...TODAY FLOODING THREAT...ELEVATED TIMING...TODAY THERE IS A LIMITED THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION...INTENSE RAINFALL RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTLOOK AREA. (WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1) (WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY. MSZ028-029-032-036-037-043-044-048>050-054>056-059-061>063-040000- MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CHOCTAW-HOLMES-ATTALA-MADISON MS-LEAKE-HINDS- RANKIN-SCOTT-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JEFFERSON-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN- LAWRENCE- 1000 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... TORNADOES THREAT...ELEVATED TIMING...TODAY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...ELEVATED TIMING...TODAY FLOODING THREAT...ELEVATED TIMING...TODAY THERE IS AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES OVER THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO AND THROUGH THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IN ADDITION...INTENSE RAINFALL RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT. (WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1) (WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY. MSZ030-031-033-038-039-045-046-051-052-057-058-064>066-072>074- 040000- CLAY-LOWNDES-OKTIBBEHA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-NEWTON- LAUDERDALE-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION- LAMAR-FORREST- 1000 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... TORNADOES THREAT...ELEVATED TIMING...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...ELEVATED TIMING...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT FLOODING THREAT...ELEVATED TIMING...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT THERE IS AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO AND THROUGH THE OUTLOOK AREA FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...INTENSE RAINFALL RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT. (WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1) (WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. 19 && ...HAZARD LEGEND... *TORNADOES* EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN STRONG TORNADOES WITH RATINGS EF2 OR GREATER. SIGNIFICANT...STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE WITH RATINGS EF2 OR GREATER. ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN TORNADOES. LIMITED...TORNADOES POSSIBLE. *SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS* EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL. SIGNIFICANT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL. ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL. LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL. *FLOODING* EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. SIGNIFICANT...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POSSIBLE. ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN FLOODING. LIMITED...FLOODING POSSIBLE. ...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)... NWS JAN HOME PAGE... WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE... WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK... WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER... @NWSJACKSONMS ...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES... STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)... WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ SPC...MESO ANALYSIS... WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/# SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS... WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/ SPC...STORM REPORTS... WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/ NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES... WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG ...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES... LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER RFC HOME PAGE... WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LMRFC/ NWS SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK... WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/NATIONALFLOODOUTLOOK/INDEX.HTML WPC DAY 1 THROUGH 3 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL... WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/EXCESS_RAIN.SHTML WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION... WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/DISCUSSIONS/QPFERD.HTML WPC DAY 1 THROUGH 7 QPF... WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML WPC QPF DISCUSSION... WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/DISCUSSIONS/QPFHSD.HTML NWS JAN OBSERVED PRECIPITATION IMAGES... WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=PRECIPMAPS PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Sixty percent of the rural roads were flooded.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, January 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 549194.