Flash Flood in Indiana, January 3, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
929 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA TO MICHIGAN
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO CENTRAL INDIANA.

EARLY ON SUNDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS INDIANA.
MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE NEWLY ARRIVED COLD AIR
MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO CENTRAL INDIANA.

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL AND
EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. A WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. AN EXTENSIVE RAIN SHIELD
STRETCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE...WITH THE BACK EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION FOUND NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WITH A STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGING AHEAD OF THE
LOW INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THAT THE ONGOING STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA WILL COME TO AN END AFTER 00Z. STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES REMAIN OVER 6
G/KG INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ALSO THE SURFACE LOW IS POISED TO
PUSH INTO NORTHEAST INDIANA. TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOWS SATURATION IN THE LOWER LEVELS AMID SOME WEAK
FORCING. THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHER FOR LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS
AFTER 00Z.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO LINGER FROM NE TO SW ACROSS
INDIANA...WITH LITTLE PROGRESSION OVERNIGHT. WITH CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED AND POSSIBLE RAIN...WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS.
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY WORK INTO THE LAF TOWARD 12Z AND ALLOW
ANY PRECIP TO CHANGE TO SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH SNOW CHANCES....THEN MORE SNOW
CHANCES ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ON
SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON
SUNDAY MORNING. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -12C BY 00Z WITH NW FLOW IN
PLACE, TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH MAINLY SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. THUS WILL CONTINUE TH TREND OF
FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH OUR DAILY HIGH EXPECTED NEAR
MIDNIGHT...AND FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE EQUAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
EXPECTED 12Z TEMPS...WITH TEMPS FALLING IN TO THE 20S THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GFS AND NAM FURTHERMORE SUGGEST A STRONG SHORT WAVE
ALOFT PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXCELLENT PVA
APPEARS IN PLACE ALOFT. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS A PROBLEM AS THESE
STRONG DYNAMICS PASS. HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE AMID THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
SEEM LIKE A REASONABLE CHOICE. THUS WILL CONTINUE HIGH CHC POPS
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...WITH ANY AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1 INCH.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...GFS AND NAM SHOW THE STRONG SHORT WAVE HAS
PASSED WELL TO THE EAST AS ANY AVAILABLE FORCING WILL HAVE BEEN
LOST. TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE EVENING...BUT CLEAR THINGS OUT OVERNIGHT. THIS
APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THE COLD SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS
INDIANA WITH A RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THUS WILL TREND
TOWARD A PTCLDY SKY OVERNIGHT. WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS
AS SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER AND PRESSURE GRADIENT SUGGESTS WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME MIXING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

DRY WEATHER IS THEN ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA. WEAK RIDGING
REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT BEFORE DRIFTING EAST AND ALLOWING A RETURN
OF SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION BY MONDAY EVENING. WILL TREND SKIES
PTCLDY ON MONDAY AND STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS FOR HIGHS.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM TO SWEEP THROUGH INDIANA. BEST TIME FRAME FOR PRECIP SHOULD
BE 08Z-16Z TUESDAY AS FORCING PUSHES THROUGH. 285K GFS ISENTROPIC
SURFACE SHOWS DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...BUT
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE A PROBLEM AS SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES ONLY REACH
AROUND 2 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HOWEVER HINT AT A NEARLY
SATURATED COLUMN ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH SOME DRY AIR IN
PLACE AT THE SURFACE. ENTIRE COLUMN REMAINS BELOW 0C...AND GOOD
SATURATION IS SEEN WITHIN THE -10C TO -20C RANGE OF THE COLUMN. BY
12Z TUESDAY THE LOWER PARTS OF THE COLUMN FINALLY APPEAR
SATURATED...BUT SUBSIDENCE IS QUICKLY DEVELOPING ALOFT AS THE
FORCING DEPARTS QUICKLY TO THE EAST. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD LIKELY
POPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY ON TUESDAY...WITH MEASURABLE
SNOW. AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITHE THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
WARMEST VALUES LIKELY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY ON TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 202 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2015

VAST MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD APPEARS DRY AS LARGE DOME OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SINKS THROUGH THE REGION. THIS HIGH WILL
LIKELY INCLUDE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR...WITH
GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SUB ZERO LOWS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -25 LOOK LIKELY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AS WELL...AND WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE AT LEAST A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE TIME APPROACHES.

SOME MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS GETTING BACK INTO THE 20S AND EVEN SOME LOW 30S
POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 040300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 929 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

WIDESPREAD LOW CEILINGS 005-008 AGL CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA.
RAINFALL HAS BECOME MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE AS LIFT PULLS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...HOWEVER SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER WAVE
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING CAUSING RAINFALL TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KIND/KBMG.

SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP SOME AFTER 040600Z IN THE WAKE OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO EXPECTING MOST OF THE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
AND PRECIPITATION TO END DURING THAT TIME...BUT IFR CEILINGS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY.

SURFACE WINDS A LITTLE CHAOTIC AT THIS TIME WITH LOW PRESSURE
NEARBY...BUT WINDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY SETTLE INTO 220-250 DEGREES AT
6-9 KTS THIS EVENING. SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 10-13 KTS AFTER
040600Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
610 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2015

INZ051>056-060>065-067>072-041100-
VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-JOHNSON-SHELBY-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-
BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
610 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

HAZARDS: NONE.

TIMING: NONE.

DISCUSSION: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK: LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

DISCUSSION: AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK BRINGING CHANCES FOR
LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TO LAST
THROUGH THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ037>042-045>049-057-041100-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-
MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-RUSH-
610 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

HAZARDS: NONE.

TIMING: NONE.

DISCUSSION: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK: LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH LESS THAN AN INCH
ACCUMULATION. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

DISCUSSION: AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK BRINGING CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TO LAST
THROUGH THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ021-028>031-035-036-043-044-041100-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
VERMILLION-PARKE-
610 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT.

HAZARDS: LIGHT SNOW.

TIMING: AFTER 5 AM.

DISCUSSION: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK: LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH UP TO AN INCH
ACCUMULATION. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

DISCUSSION: AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK BRINGING CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TO LAST
THROUGH THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

KOCH