Slow moving thunderstorms brought heavy rainfall to portions of western Arkansas during the early morning hours of the 13th. This heavy rainfall resulted in some flash flooding across portions of Polk County Arkansas.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LZK wrote it up.
Slow moving thunderstorms brought heavy rainfall to portions of western Arkansas during the early morning hours of the 13th. This heavy rainfall resulted in some flash flooding across portions of Polk County Arkansas.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 12, 8:23 PM CST, 7 hours 7 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 823 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015 .UPDATE... A LINE OF SHOWERS...WITH AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES HERE AND THERE...IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG THE ARKANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER AS OF 8PM. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION AND CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ARE FAVORING A NOTABLY SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS LINE OF CONVECTION. AS SUCH...REVAMPED THE POP GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS SLOWER TIMING WHICH IS EVEN SLOWER THAN THE FORECAST UPDATE SENT OUT EARLIER THIS EVENING. DO NOT HAVE ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES MAKING IT TO THE LITTLE ROCK METRO AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK...BUT WILL HAVE PROLONGED LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE WEST. LEFT THE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW AS IS FOR NOW SINCE IT LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AT THE PRESENT TIME. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015/ AVIATION... FORECASTS WILL REFLECT THE LATEST THINKING WITH REGARD TO THE DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION SHIELD...FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT. LIFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 12Z. 55 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015/ SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT HAVE CONTINUED TO SEE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY AROUND THE STATE TODAY...WITH ONLY A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NOTED ACROSS EXTREME SE ARKANSAS. BREEZY SE WINDS ARE BEING SEEN AROUND THE STATE...AND TEMPERATURES WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. HAVE BEGUN TO SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POP UP AROUND THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE ACTUALLY SHOWING SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES A BIT HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...HOWEVER SB CAPE VALUES ARE STILL 500 J/KG OR LESS. LIMITED SB CAPE COMBINED WITH POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT. HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TWO ROUNDS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION...WITH THE FIRST ROUND FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER...BOTH THE HIRES AND MORE COARSE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECPITATION FURTHER TO THE WEST. IN FACT THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAS MUCH OF ARKANSAS MISSING OUT COMPLETELY ON THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION. ALSO OF CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE BREEZY CONDITIONS. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY...AS WINDS SHOULD BE JUST BELOW LAKE WIND CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM OVERNIGHT...WITH READINGS DROPPING VERY LITTLE. MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL SEE SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES OCCUR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL BE NEAR DIURNAL AS THIS SYSTEM HAS SLOWED QUITE A BIT. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS EARLY MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST TO ROUND OUT THE SHORT TERM AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES ARKANSAS. LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY A NEW STORM SYS WL BE PASSING WELL N OF AR ON WED...WITH A SWD TRAILING CDFNT PUSHING E OF THE FA. A FEW SHOWERS WL LINGER OVR SERN AR EARLY WED...OTHERWISE COOLER AND DRIER CONDS WL PREVAIL. A WEAK UPR LVL SYSTEM WL TRACK EWD ACRS THE AREA THU NGT AND EARLY FRI...WITH JUST SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING IT. TEMPS WL BEGIN TO SLOLY MODERATE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS EWD...WITH LGT S/SWLY WINDS RETURNING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BATESVILLE AR 72 65 70 46 / 10 40 100 60 CAMDEN AR 77 67 69 44 / 20 50 100 20 HARRISON AR 70 63 65 42 / 20 100 100 40 HOT SPRINGS AR 74 67 68 44 / 20 80 100 20 LITTLE ROCK AR 75 66 69 45 / 10 50 90 40 MONTICELLO AR 77 68 72 48 / 10 20 100 40 MOUNT IDA AR 74 66 68 42 / 20 100 100 20 MOUNTAIN HOME AR 71 63 69 44 / 10 80 100 50 NEWPORT AR 72 64 71 47 / 10 20 100 60 PINE BLUFF AR 75 66 71 46 / 10 30 100 40 RUSSELLVILLE AR 74 66 67 43 / 20 100 100 30 SEARCY AR 72 65 70 44 / 10 40 100 50 STUTTGART AR 73 66 71 47 / 10 20 100 50 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && 64
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 620 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015 ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-131100- BOONE-MARION-BAXTER-FULTON-SHARP-NEWTON-SEARCY-STONE-IZARD- INDEPENDENCE-JOHNSON-POPE-VAN BUREN-CLEBURNE-JACKSON-LOGAN-CONWAY- FAULKNER-WHITE-WOODRUFF-SCOTT-YELL-PERRY-POLK-MONTGOMERY-GARLAND- SALINE-PULASKI-LONOKE-PRAIRIE-MONROE-PIKE-CLARK-HOT SPRING-GRANT- JEFFERSON-ARKANSAS-DALLAS-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-DESHA-OUACHITA-CALHOUN- BRADLEY-DREW- 620 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ON AREA TRIBUTARIES...ESPECIALLY THE CACHE...LOWER WHITE...AND OUACHITA RIVERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SOME AREA RIVERS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO ARKANSAS. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION AND RAIN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD WITH THE FRONT. IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SOMETIME SUNDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF. AS FAR AS RAINFALL...WIDESPREAD ONE TO THREE INCH AMOUNTS ARE IN THE FORECAST. LOCAL TOTALS COULD EXCEED FOUR INCHES IN THE WEST...MAINLY IN PORTIONS OF THE OUACHITA MOUNTAINS. GIVEN THIS MUCH RAIN IN THE WEST...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN. RIVERS WILL BE ON THE RISE ONCE AGAIN. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED DURING THIS UPCOMING EVENT. && VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS. 55/46
The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 71 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 09:31 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Several county roads were flooded, with nearly 3.5 inches of rainfall occurring in the past 3 hours.
A low water crossing was washed out near Bogg Springs.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, December 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 611643, 611644.