Hail and Damaging Winds in Arizona, June 25, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
847 AM MST THU JUN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAKING IT INTO MORE VALLEY LOCATIONS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WE WILL KEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. SOME STORMS WILL
GENERATE STRONG WINDS WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE. A
STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BRING BETTER
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SUSTAINING STORMS
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
POTENTIAL OF HEAVIER RAIN IN VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL INCREASE AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH CONSIDERABLE RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS
OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PIMA COUNTY. MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE INCREASED
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS PER THE LATEST 12Z KTWC SOUNDING/REGIONAL GPS
DATA WITH PWAT VALUES AVERAGING ABOUT 1.3 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE 12Z KTWC SOUNDING IS ALSO DEPICTING FAVORABLE
EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW AND A FAIRLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.

THE LATEST HRRR AND 12Z UOFA WRF SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TODAY...INITIALLY DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OF SANTA CRUZ AND
COCHISE COUNTY...PERHAPS AIDED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER SONORA.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE WHITE AND THE
GILA MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO THAT PUSH TO THE WEST AS WELL DURING
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE IS CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM THESE
THUNDERSTORMS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
EVENT TO ISSUE ANY KIND OF ADVANCE BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FOR OUR
HIGHER RISK DUST CORRIDORS IN PINAL/CENTRAL PIMA COUNTIES.
REGARDLESS...FOLKS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR DUST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE
TODAY...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCAL HEAVY RAINERS ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT WITH QUICKER STORM MOTIONS THAT
WILL KEEP RAIN AMOUNTS IN CHECK. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...NO
UPDATES THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/18Z.
OVC CLOUD DECK ABV 10K FT AGL WEST OF KTUS WILL BE CLEARING THRU
25/17Z. EXPECT ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA EAST OF KTUS DEVELOPING BY
25/19Z BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AND MOVING WNW THRU 26/03Z. SOME TSRA
COULD HAVE GUSTS OF 40-50 KTS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SE WINDS BECOMING
NW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SE AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 12 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN DAILY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN SE AZ.  FRIDAY MAY BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAY BUT THIS
WEEKEND SHOULD SEE SUBSTANTIAL STORM COVERAGE. INITIAL THUNDERSTORM
HAZARDS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOWS AND DRY LIGHTNING UNTIL
MOISTURE BECOMES MORE ENTRENCHED.  WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH WILL BE
FAIRLY COMMON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE STRONGEST AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING STORMS TO PRODUCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PUBLIC...GL
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...KD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
111 PM MST THU JUN 25 2015

AZZ508-252045-
EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY BELOW 5000 FEET INCLUDING DOUGLAS/WILLCOX AZ-
111 PM MST THU JUN 25 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY
UNTIL 145 PM MST...

AT 110 PM MST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM OVER DOUGLAS...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DOUGLAS...PIRTLEVILLE AND BISBEE-DOUGLAS AIRPORT.

LAT...LON 3149 10966 3149 10941 3134 10940 3133 10940
      3133 10969
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 077DEG 8KT 3137 10952

GL