Flash Flood and Damaging Winds in Missouri, June 25 to 26, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
637 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 637 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

Convection is firing on a number of boundaries across
northern/central portions of Kansas and Missouri at this time.
Generally along and north of the I-70 corridor. The atmosphere is
plenty unstable, but there just isn't much in the atmosphere to
give any of this activity a nudge to the south at this point. As a
result, our area will likely be in watch and wait mode, with only
Benton and Morgan counties at risk for observing thunderstorm
activity over the next 3 to 6 hours.

Even heading into the late evening and overnight hours, both cell
motion and system motion vectors are predominately oriented from
west to east. As a result, activity to our north will only sag
southward with time, affecting areas mainly along/north of
Highway 54. Will adjust PoPs accordingly for the rest of tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)

The summertime high was breaking down over the southern Plains
this afternoon as zonal westerlies were sagging deeper into
Missouri.

A surface front was positioned over northern Missouri. South of
this feature across the Ozarks, temperatures were once again
warming into the lower 90s, as dew points were in the lower 70s.
This created humid and uncomfortable weather across the region.

The chances for pulse thunderstorms are very low this afternoon.
The 12Z RAOB measured a very dry airmass through the mid levels,
which will mitigate updrafts from maturing into deep convection.

For tonight, it will be warm and muggy while most locations
remains dry. Locations along and north of Highway 54 will
experience increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms.

This complex of storms will impact much of central and northern
Missouri tonight, creating a risk for flooding for areas north of
Highway 54. Therefore a Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for
Benton, Morgan, Miller, and Maries counties through Friday
morning.

Not much southward movement in these storms are expected Friday
morning, however, by Friday afternoon, models suggest that a mid
level speed max will approach from the northwest, forcing a cold
front to sweep southern Missouri. This will occur as afternoon
heating is taking place, providing sufficient instability for
robust thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening.

With deep layer shear increasing to around 30 to 35 knots, several
organized storms are expected. -20 levels will be quite high, so
the primary risk with the stronger storms Friday will be damaging
wind gusts up to 65 mph.

Locations along and south of Interstate 44 will experience the
better chances for severe storms tomorrow.

Most if not all of this rain will exit south of the Ozarks by
midnight Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)

A major pattern change will have occurred as the weekend unfolds
on Saturday and Sunday. The Ozarks will be positioned underneath
deep northwest flow, bringing a cooler and drier airmass to the
area.

Look for dry weather with afternoon highs only in the upper 70s
and lower 80s both Saturday and Sunday. This will be a great
weekend for outdoor activities.

By Sunday night, the GFS has a strong signal for another frontal
passage. This feature should trigger showers and thunderstorms
that will linger into Monday morning. However, most of Monday will
be nice with highs in the low to mid 80s.

From Tuesday on, northwest flow continues as a series of weak
disturbances migrate through. Anyone of these features could
trigger showers or scattered thunderstorms.

As we draw closer to the 4th of July weekend, it appears as though
a low level frontal system will be stalled out either directly
over or near the Ozarks Region. This will be a focus for daily
showers and thunderstorms.

A stormy pattern could evolve into that holiday weekend forecast
so stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

See the above mesoscale discussion for thunderstorm expectations
for this evening and tonight. VFR conditions are expected into
Friday morning as thunderstorm activity remains north of the TAF
sites. South/southwest winds tonight will shift to the west by
midday Friday. Thunderstorm chances will increase during the late
morning and persist through Friday afternoon. Will need to monitor
for the potential for a few strong to severe storms. Otherwise,
winds will shift to north/northwest as a cold front passes through
the area during the afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 10 PM CDT this evening through Friday
     morning FOR MOZ055>058.

KS...NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gagan

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
840 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-270145-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
840 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONT THAT WILL
SHIFT FROM NEAR INTERSTATE 70 TO THE HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAIN COULD POSE
A FLOOD RISK FOR MARIES...MILLER...MORGAN...AND BENTON COUNTIES.

ANOTHER COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NEBRASKA WILL
LIKELY ENTER PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND WEST
CENTRAL MISSOURI PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING. SOME STORM
REDEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SEVERE STORMS CONTAINING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
MORNING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI WITH MORE LIMITED CHANCES
ELSEWHERE.

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG AND
 NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE)

THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAGAN