Several severe thunderstorms moved across northern Arizona on the first day of July. These storms produced damaging hail and high winds.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
Several severe thunderstorms moved across northern Arizona on the first day of July. These storms produced damaging hail and high winds.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 1, 9:42 AM MST, 4 hours 18 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 942 AM MST WED JUL 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. && .DISCUSSION...THIS MORNINGS UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM FLAGSTAFF AND SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATES REVEAL SIMILAR ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE VALUES AS YESTERDAY. OBSERVED AND MODEL ESTIMATES INDICATE BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL DEVELOP TODAY, WITH THE GREATEST INSTABILITY FORECAST TO BE FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM SOUTH - ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY MAY BE OVERESTIMATED ACROSS SOUTHERN YAVAPAI COUNTY DUE TO OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ALSO SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THE GREATEST DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES EXIST FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM SOUTH, WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER TOPPED BY AN EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM, STEERING FLOW IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS. NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM, STEERING FLOW IS LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE LARGEST CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY IS THE AMOUNT OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. MOST OF YAVAPAI COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST ARIZONA EXPERIENCED THUNDERSTORMS AND OUTFLOWS OVERNIGHT. THIS OFTEN MEANS AT LEAST A DELAYED START TO CONVECTION THERE. HI-RES MODEL RUNS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA ACTUALLY FORECAST THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OCCURRING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM TODAY, WITH STRONG OUTFLOWS INITIATING CONVECTION IN THE LATE EVENING IN THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FROM CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST. WHILE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS ACROSS YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES, WHEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE THERE IS SOMEWHAT UP IN THE AIR. && .PREV DISCUSSION /413 AM MST/...LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN SHIFT TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH COVERAGE TODAY MAY BE SLIGHTLY LESS, ENHANCED WIND SHEAR CONTINUES WITH S-SW LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO NORTHEASTERLY ALOFT. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY, MAINLY FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM/WHITE MTNS SOUTHWARD INTO GILA AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. HAIL TO 1" IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH BEING THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WIND SHEAR DECREASES AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE STATE. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE ONLY SLIGHTLY, SO EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE STRONGER E/NE STEERING FLOWS OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS WILL DECREASE, SO STORMS WILL BE LESS LIKELY TO ROLL OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE LOWER VALLEYS AND POPS IN THESE AREAS ARE LOWER. BY SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE MID LEVEL HIGH IS FORECAST TO RE- POSITION SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA RESULTING IN A FEW DAYS OF A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MTNS. THIS STEERING FLOW IS NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS SOUTH OF THE RIM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INITIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE TO THE WEST. ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH WINDS OF 45-50 KTS AND HAIL TO 1" DIAMETER. THE AREA MOST LIKELY FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM/WHITE MTNS SOUTH INTO GILA AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE AFT 06Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY AND THURSDAY. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && PUBLIC...RR/JJ AVIATION...MCS FIRE WEATHER...MAS FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 523 AM MST WED JUL 1 2015 AZZ004>018-037>040-020330- KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY- COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY- CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS- NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS- OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- 523 AM MST WED JUL 1 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO... NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE WEST INTO THE VALLEYS. A FEW STORMS FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTH ACROSS YAVAPAI AND GILA COUNTIES COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MONSOONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 149 PM MST WED JUL 1 2015 AZZ010-011-040-012130- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-CHINLE VALLEY- CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- 149 PM MST WED JUL 1 2015 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL APACHE COUNTY UNTIL 230 PM MST... AT 146 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SAWMILL...OR 28 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHINLE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...KINLICHEE CHAPTER HOUSE...FORT DEFIANCE...GANADO...AND SAWMILL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. && LAT...LON 3570 10959 3602 10922 3595 10905 3551 10905 TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 018DEG 7KT 3587 10920 RR
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 101 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:01 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind, 2 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorms produced large hail north and west of Flagstaff. Hail reports (inches in diameter) include: Snowbowl 1 (200 PM), Parks 1.75 (227 PM), 2 miles northwest of Parks 1.50 (230 PM), Fort Valley 1 (240 PM), and Bellemont 1 (300 PM).
A picture posted on Facebook indicated that 1.50 inch diameter hail fell about 15 miles west of Window Rock.
The Arizona Department of Transportation wind sensor on State Route 77 (mile 14) reported a peak wind gust of 59 MPH.
The Arizona Department of Transportation wind sensor along Interstate 40 at Jackrabbit reported a wind gust of 64 MPH.
The Arizona Department of Transportation wind sensor at Two Guns and Interstate 40 recorded a peak wind gust of 63 MPH at 912 PM MST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, July 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 596429, 596433, 596432, 596431, 596434.