Flooding in Indiana, July 1 to 30, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
724 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 724 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION ONLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

LARGE AREA OF SMOKE ESTIMATED TO BE 10-15K/FT THICK ACROSS THE
REGION SLOWING CU DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS STILL CLIMBING SO NOT ENOUGH
TO AFFECT THAT ELEMENT. CU SEEN BECOMING MORE PREVALENT IN WEST
KY. COULD BE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HERE. MEANWHILE ENERGY MOVING
SE MAY BRING CONVECTION AS WELL TO THE KEVV TRI-STATE REGION LATE
TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH LOWER POPS WEST. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SLIM
POPS INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK FROM SW IL INTO SEMO. STILL HAVE A
SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM SPC FOR OUR NE COUNTIES. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
WIND SPEEDS DECENT FOR LATE JUNE. QUESTION WILL BE INSTABILITY AS
BEST CAPES ARE CURRENTLY ACROSS WEST KY AND TO OUR NORTH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A FAA
(FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH) PRODUCT. MODELS STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY
PIN POINTING MCS DEVELOPMENT/PROPAGATION AND WHERE BEST QPF AXIS
WILL ACTUALLY END UP. SUCH LOW CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES A WATCH AT
THIS TIME. THAT...AND WE THINK PROBLEMS WOULD REALLY NOT DEVELOP
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE WE CAN STILL ACHIEVE SOME LEAD
TIME IF WE NEED ONE. NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE GIVEN
MARGINAL LAPSE RATES...SUPPRESSED CAPE/INSTABILITY GIVEN PERIODIC
CLOUDS AND CONVECTION. CHANCE IS NOT ZERO...BUT NOT TOO HIGH. BEST
POPS WILL TRANSLATE SE THUR/THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MODEL CONSISTENCY REMAINS VERY GOOD DURING THE LONG TERM. THE 500 MB
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL VERY SLOWLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLOW DOWNWARD TICK IN PRECIP
COVERAGE AND AN UPWARD TICK IN TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...THE SMALL
CHANGES WILL BE MAINLY AFTER THE IMPORTANT FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY.

ON FRIDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE OVER CENTRAL
KENTUCKY. OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL YIELD PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
AND PROBABLY SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS OR STORMS. IN ADDITION...THE
NEXT 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MISSOURI
VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RATHER MEAGER WITH THE CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD OR STRONG.

ON THE FOURTH OF JULY...THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...THEN MOVE NORTHEAST OF OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY. WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN RESIDENCE OVER
OUR AREA. POPS WILL REMAIN ABOUT 50 PERCENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE TREND TOWARD
HIGHER 500 MB HEIGHTS AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW.
DESPITE THE RISING HEIGHTS...SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRUSH PAST OUR REGION.

TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB EVER SO SLOWLY DURING THE
PERIOD...FROM AROUND 80 FRIDAY TO THE UPPER 80S TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RISE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 724 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SMOKE IN A LAYER BETWEEN 5K AND 20K FT WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO
OUR REGION FOR ABOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD...RESTRICTING
SLANT VSBYS. THERE IS A LIMITED POSSIBILITY THAT MID LEVEL ENERGY
MAY CAUSE A SHOWER OR TSTM TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE NERN QUADRANT
THIS EVENING. CIGS THERE SHOULD REMAIN VFR...AND ANY VSBY
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE BRIEF. BY MIDDAY WED...AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GENERATE MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS MAINLY
FOR THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA. OUTSIDE OF TSTMS...WINDS WILL BE QUITE
VARIABLE AND BELOW 10 KTS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CN
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...DB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
159 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-011000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
159 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A
FEW STRONG OR BRIEFLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS...HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM MOUNT VERNON ILLINOIS TO HOPKINSVILLE
KENTUCKY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

FLOODING CONTINUES ON SEVERAL AREA RIVERS. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND
BECOME WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HEADING SOUTHEAST THURSDAY.
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME FLOODING. THE
TRACK OF HIGHEST RAINFALL IS STILL UNCERTAIN. A FEW STRONG OR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WITH WIND AND HAIL THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS. THE DAILY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE. REFER TO THE FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR
DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MAINTAIN A BASIC WEATHER WATCH IN CASE THEIR
ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.