A storm force low developed in the Western Gulf of Alaska on the morning of Tuesday the 29th. A strong cold front approached the Eastern Gulf coast on the afternoon of the 29th that included a very long fetch for seas and strong winds.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AJK wrote it up.
A storm force low developed in the Western Gulf of Alaska on the morning of Tuesday the 29th. A strong cold front approached the Eastern Gulf coast on the afternoon of the 29th that included a very long fetch for seas and strong winds. This coincided with Spring tides which got to 13 FT near Yakutat. Damage occurred for the fish camps near Strawberry Point which persistent high winds swept though Skagway all the way though Wed the 30th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 29, 5:01 AM AKST, 6 hours 59 minutes earlier.
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
601 AM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...STRONG STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST WITH 2 MAIN FRONTAL WAVES DUE INTO THE PANHANDLE DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE FIRST WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
NOW WHILE THE SECOND WILL MOVE IN LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. BOTH CONTAIN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND ENHANCEMENT OF
SURFACE WINDS WITH A MINOR SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTIONS ANTICIPATED.
CURRENT PRESSURE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE STRONG SURFACE LOW AT ABOUT
975 MB JUST SOUTH OF KENAI WHICH IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN
PREVIOUS PROGS. HAVE TWEAKED WIND SPEEDS IN APPROPO AREAS IN THE
INNER CHANNELS DUE TO ANTICIPATED SLIGHTLY STRONGER GRADIENTS
MOSTLY IN THE EAST-WEST PORTIONS...NW-SE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY
STRONG OVER ALL BUT SOUTHERNMOST AREAS THROUGH ABOUT 03-06Z WED.
VARIOUS GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
OFFSHORE ZONES (AND 310) AS WELL AS IN LYNN CANAL, ICY STRAIT,
GLACIER BAY, FREDERICK SOUND, CLARENCE STRAIT AND STEPHENS PASSAGE
FOR VARIOUS TIMES IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AREAS NOT IN GALES WILL
SEE SCA-LEVEL WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ALSO A HIGH WIND
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LOCAL ACCELERATIONS IN THE SKAGWAY
ZONE AND VARIOUS STRONG WINDS ARE PROGGED FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE PANHANDLE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR CHANNELED FLOW AND
EXPOSED COASTAL LOCATIONS. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS SUBTROPICAL
CONNECTION NICELY TO THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
ALONG WITH AN IMPRESSIVE ENHANCED DEFORMATION ZONE/BAROCLINIC LEAF
OVER THE MAINLAND. MODEL QPF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GENERALLY
1.5-2.5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN 3/4 OF THE PANHANDLE WITH
YAKUTAT STILL AT OVER 5 INCHES. HEAVY RAIN RATES SHOULD MODERATE
BY ABOUT 06-09Z WED.
UTILIZED AN EC/NAM REFRESHER FOR THERMODYNAMIC UPDATES ALONG WITH
AN ADJUSTMENT TO OROGRAPHIC QPF FOR THE PREDOMINANT SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND DIRECTION. AFTER THE PRIMARY FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS
EVENING THE DOMINANT PRECIP SHOULD EVOLVE TO SHOWERY ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS COLD ENOUGH
FOR MIXED SNOWFALL IN THE WHITE PASS VICINITY LATE TUE NIGHT
ALTHOUGH NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...HEAVY RAIN EVENT WILL BE ALL BUT OVER BY THE START OF
THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES AND THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST ZONES. ONCE THE
SHOWERS DO END, DRY WEATHER SHOULD LAST THROUGH SATURDAY FOR
YAKUTAT AND POSSIBLY THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PANHANDLE. GFS IS A SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER IN THIS REGARD, PUSHING IN
ANOTHER STRONG FRONT WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY. OTHER MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT, SO
HAVE OPTED FOR A CONSENSUS BLEND THAT BRINGS IN ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN ON SUNDAY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF.
COLD LOW AND MID LEVEL AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW CURRENTLY
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY GETTING DOWN TO THE MID 30S OR LOW
40S. THREAT OF SNOW WILL BE MITIGATED BY A LACK OF POP, HOWEVER.
A RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLE COMBINED WITH THE LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL KEEP A STRONG SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLE AND GALES OR SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER MOST OF
THE EASTERN GULF. SEA HEIGHTS OVER THE GULF RANGING FROM 23 FEET
TO 12 FEET FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING, BUT NOT DROPPING BELOW 8 FEET UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.
BY THURSDAY, THE GRADIENT WILL REVERSE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
OVER THE YUKON AND THE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY WITH
WINDS 15 KTS OR LESS ON THE INSIDE FOR THIS WEEKEND.
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TO LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES
OVERNIGHT. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...WIND PROGS OF 35-50 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET MSL HAVE
PROMPTED WIND SHEAR ALERTS IN MOST OF THE TAFS THROUGH 18 TO 24
HOURS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...CURRENT RAINFALL OBSERVATIONS OVER THE LAST 6-12
HOURS ARE MOSTLY IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS PREDICTIONS. YAKUTAT HAS
RECEIVED ABOUT 1.5 INCHES IN THE LAST 4 HOURS WITH JUNEAU GETTING
0.4 IN THE LAST 3 HOURS OR SO. SITKA'S RATE HAS INCREASED JUST IN
THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS SIGNIFICANTLY. WITH THIS LATEST INCREASE
IN RAINFALL RATES THE TAIYA AS WELL AS JUNEAU RIVERS ARE BEGINNING
TO RESUME RISES ALTHOUGH STILL AT 1-2 FEET BELOW MINOR FLOOD
STAGE. WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE CONTINUED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. YAKUTAT'S COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
CONTINUED ALSO DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE EXPECTED HIGH
TIDE.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ018>026.
STRONG WIND FROM 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR AKZ027.
STRONG WIND FROM 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR AKZ025.
STRONG WIND FROM 1 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR AKZ022.
STRONG WIND FROM 1 PM TO 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ023.
STRONG WIND FROM 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR AKZ028.
STRONG WIND FROM 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
FOR AKZ019.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR AKZ018.
STRONG WIND UNTIL 1 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018.
STRONG WIND FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
AKZ018.
STRONG WIND FROM 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR AKZ017.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM TO 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AKZ017.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-021-031-034-036-042-043-051>053.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-032-033-035-041.
&&
WESLEY/FRITSCH
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU1 high wind, 1 coastal flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Strong winds hit Skagway on the 29th through daytime on the 30th. The peak gust was 66 mph at 1300 on the 29th. Gusts around 50 mph were common during the period. No damage was reported. White Pass probably had higher winds.
A long fetch of building sea impacted the Eastern Gulf Coast near Yakutat on the afternoon of the 29th. This coincided with one of the highest astronomical tides of the year. Damage to the fish camps at Strawberry Point was documented by a survey with photos. The estimates were are around $20000.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, September 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 603240, 603236.