Blizzard, Baldwin Pen. & Selawik Valley
- When
- November 8, 10:53 AM AKST to 6:27 PM AKST
- Where
- Baldwin Pen. & Selawik Valley forecast zone
- Reported by
- ASOS
Blizzard and Coastal Flood in Alaska, November 8 to 10, 2015
A 959 mb low pressure center moved into the northern Bering Sea early on the 8th of November. The associated weather front moved across the west coast during |the afternoon and evening hours of the 8th.
The toll
- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- $40,000
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 5
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
What happened
The episode as NWS AFG wrote it up.
A 959 mb low pressure center moved into the northern Bering Sea early on the 8th of November. The associated weather front moved across the west coast during |the afternoon and evening hours of the 8th. This resulted in a swath of strong southwest winds across the Yukon Delta which lasted into the 9th. As the weather front moved north on the 8th blizzard conditions developed across the Baldwin Peninsula in the late morning and lasted until evening. In addition, the mid-level winds for the entire system extended east to the Alaska Range where strong chinook flow produced high winds in passes during the afternoon and evening of the 8th.
High winds were reported at:
Zone 214: A peak wind of 67 kt (77 mph) was measured at the Cape Romanzof Mesonet site during the afternoon of the 8th. Additionally, the AWOS at Mountain Village reported a gust to 45 kt (52 mph) and the AWSS at Scammon Bay reported a gust to 47 kt (54 mph).
Zone 225: A peak wind gust to 65 kt (75 mph) occurred at the Antler Creek DOT site at MP 244 along the Parks Highway.
Zone 226: The strongest wind at the Texas Condo U.S. Army Mesonet Site was 68 kt (78 mph).
Coastal Flooding or Storm Surge: |Zone 214: Scammon Bay: The winds raised water levels 5 to 7 feet above normal along the coast of the Yukon Delta and at Scammon Bay the surge was an estimated 7 feet above normal water levels on the 9th of November. Five boats sank, 2 drifted away and 1 was lost due to this storm surge. Damage amount for these boats is estimated.
Blizzard:|Zone 209: Blizzard conditions were reported at Kotzebue, along with high winds. The wind gusted as high as 64 kt (74 mph) at the ASOS.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fairbanks, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 8, 3:59 AM AKST, 6 hours 54 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 8, 3:59 AM AKST, 6 hours 54 minutes before
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 359 AM AKST SUN NOV 8 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES WITH GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY THROUGH THE MID RANGE. INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. USING A BLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH A STRONG LEAN ON CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE WHILE NUDGING PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES UP WITH THE SREF. WILL LEAN MORE ON THE GFS IN THE MID RANGE WHILE MAINTAINING CONTINUITY. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR AND WILL MOVE EAST INTO CANADA LATER THIS MORNING. RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE EXTENDS FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA OVER POINT LAY TO MANLEY HOT SPRINGS TO ANCHORAGE AND WILL CONTINUE EAST TODAY TO LIE FROM OVER THE ARCTIC NEAR SHORE WATERS OVER BARTER ISLAND TO EAGLE TO YAKUTAT BY LATE THIS EVENING...THEN INTO CANADA. A 487 DAM LOW 200 WEST OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL MOVE OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND THIS EVENING...THEN OVER THE WESTERN SEWARD PENINSULA BY MONDAY MORNING AT 489 DAM. MODELS DISAGREE A BIT ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE LOW AFTER THAT...BUT IT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER NORTON SOUND...THEN NORTHEAST OVER THE ARCTIC NEARSHORE WATERS NEAR BARROW BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING WITH ZONAL FLOW NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE. AT 850 HPA...A SHOT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY AS SHORTWAVE SHOOTS ACROSS THE STATE...THEN WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. SURFACE...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO CANADA WITH THE AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE ALCAN BORDER LATE MONDAY EVENING. THE LOW OVER THE BERING SEA WILL MOVE FROM 150 NM NORTHWEST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY LATE THIS EVENING...THEN OVER PORT CLARENCE ON THE SEWARD PENINSULA BY MID DAY MONDAY. A TROUGH THAT LIES OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS MONDAY EVENING. THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE YUKON AT 981 MB AS A 983 MB LOW DEVELOPS JUST WEST OF BARROW. THE LOW OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON WILL MERGE WITH THE LOW NEAR WAINWRIGHT WEDNESDAY MORNING. A 996 MB HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WRANGEL MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR TONIGHT WITH UP TO 0.30 INCH OF PRECIPITATION FALLING ACROSS THE AREA. MARINE...MODELS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE JUMPY WITH THE SURGE VALUES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THEY ARE POINTING TOWARD PRETTY HIGH SURGE VALUES SOUTH OF THE BERING STRAIT AND NORTH OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. HIGHEST VALUES CONTINUE TO BE AROUND GOLOVIN AND IN NORTON BAY. IT APPEARS MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT GOLOVIN WILL TAKE THE BRUNT OF THE STORM WITH AREAS WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE TANK FARM IN GOLOVIN BEING INUNDATED WITH STORM SURGE. OTHER AREAS THAT WILL SEE SURGES OF 4 TO 8 FEET WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT EROSION ALONG THE BEACHES WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL WAVE RUN UP. WARNINGS ARE REPLACING THE WATCHES FOR ZONES 211 212 AND 214. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM BARROW EAST...BUT TO THE WEST OF BARROW WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE BROOKS RANGE AND NORTHWEST COAST AS THE LOW MOVES TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. WINDS GUSTING AROUND 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED SOUTH OF WAINWRIGHT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHTER WINDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOW SPREADING OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST AND WESTERN BROOKS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. BAND OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST WITH A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE FROM WAINWRIGHT TO DEADHORSE TONIGHT. A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THEN A COOLING TREND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...BIG MESS OUT HERE TODAY. RAIN AND SNOW...VERY WINDY...AND COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS...SEE MARINE SECTION ABOVE AND HAZARD PRODUCTS FOR MORE DETAIL. LOW IS WINDING UP PRETTY GOOD AND THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY GOOD ON THE POSITIONING OF IT THROUGH TIME. BIG QUESTION WILL BE THE HOW FAR WEST THE FETCH WILL TURN AS THE LOW MOVES OVER PORT CLARENCE THIS EVENING. STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE JUST OFF THE COAST OF ZONE 214 THIS EVENING...SO WINDS AROUND SCAMMON BAY WILL BE VERY STRONG AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE A BIG MESS WITH RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW FROM NOME SOUTH AND EVENING JUST RAIN IN THE LOWER YUKON DELTA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL TURN IT ALL BACK TO SNOW BY MONDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM LESS THAN AN INCH TO OVER 5 INCHES IN SPOTS NORTH OF GALENA. GUSTY WINDS IN THE ALASKA RANGE TO NEAR 65 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...FRONT WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO THE INTERIOR THIS EVENING...HOW MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE DIRECTION OF FLOW. WEST FLOW WILL BRING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CHINOOK OUT SOME OF THAT MOISTURE. LATEST MODELS ARE PRODUCING UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR...SO WILL GO WITH THAT FOR NOW BUT NEXT MODEL RUN COULD DRAMATICALLY CUT THAT OR INCREASE IT A BIT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT...HOWEVER STRONG GAP FLOW WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR ALASKA RANGE PASSES AND MODERATE TANANA VALLEY JET WILL KICK WINDS UP AROUND DELTA JUNCTION. WILL ISSUE WARNINGS FOR THE PASSES AND ADVISORY FOR THE DELTA JUNCTION AREA. && COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ214. WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ227. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ216-AKZ217. HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ214-AKZ225-AKZ226. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245. && SDB NOV 15
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Nov 8, 10:50 AM AKST, 3 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 1050 AM AKST SUN NOV 8 2015 AKZ207>217-082200- CHUKCHI SEA COAST-LOWER KOBUK AND NOATAK VALLEYS- BALDWIN PENINSULA AND SELAWIK VALLEY- NORTHERN AND INTERIOR SEWARD PENINSULA- SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA COAST- EASTERN NORTON SOUND AND NULATO HILLS- ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND BERING STRAIT COAST-YUKON DELTA- LOWER YUKON VALLEY-LOWER KOYUKUK AND MIDDLE YUKON VALLEYS- UPPER KOBUK AND NOATAK VALLEYS- INCLUDING...POINT HOPE...SHISHMAREF...KIVALINA...ESPENBERG... NOATAK...KIANA...RED DOG MINE...KOTZEBUE...SELAWIK...NOORVIK... BUCKLAND...DEERING...CANDLE...COUNCIL...HAYCOCK... PILGRIM SPRINGS...SERPENTINE HOT SPRINGS...TAYLOR...NOME... WHITE MOUNTAIN...GOLOVIN...UNALAKLEET...STEBBINS...ST MICHAEL... ELIM...KOYUK...SHAKTOOLIK...GAMBELL...SAVOONGA...BREVIG MISSION... TELLER...WALES...DIOMEDE...MOUNTAIN VILLAGE...EMMONAK... ALAKANUK...KOTLIK...PILOT STATION...ST MARYS...SCAMMON BAY... MARSHALL...NUNAM IQUA...PITKAS POINT...RUSSIAN MISSION... GRAYLING...HOLY CROSS...SHAGELUK...ANVIK...FLAT...GALENA... NULATO...HUSLIA...KALTAG...RUBY...KOYUKUK...AMBLER...SHUNGNAK... KOBUK 1050 AM AKST SUN NOV 8 2015 ...STRONG STORM AFFECTING THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY... A STRONG WEATHER FRONT MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA TODAY IS CAUSING VERY STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ARE OCCURING FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA NORTH...WHILE THE SNOW IS MIXING WITH RAIN FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTH. THE WEATHER FRONT IS SPREADING SNOW INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR TODAY. THE WEATHER FRONT EXTENDS FROM A VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NOW IN THE NORTHERN BERING SEA AND WILL MOVE OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA MONDAY. THIS STORM HAS STRONG SOUTH WINDS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER BATCH OF STRONG WINDS AND SNOW TO THE WEST COAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE STRONG SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING COASTAL FLOODING TO THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA FROM THE YUKON DELTA TO NORTON SOUND STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A STORM SURGE PUSHING WATER LEVELS UP 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ALONG ALONG THE COAST FROM THE YUKON DELTA NORTH TO NOME.
Event by event
3 high wind, 1 blizzard, 1 coastal flood. Local standard time, as filed.
High Wind, Yukon Delta
- When
- November 8, 12:55 PM AKST to 6:00 PM AKST
- Where
- Yukon Delta forecast zone
- Measured
- 67 kt (77 mph) measured gust
- Reported by
- Mesonet
High Wind, Denali
- When
- November 8, 3:51 PM AKST to 10:21 PM AKST
- Where
- Denali forecast zone
- Measured
- 65 kt (75 mph) measured gust
- Reported by
- Mesonet
High Wind, Ne. Slopes of the Ern Ak Rng
- When
- November 8, 4:40 PM AKST to 11:50 PM AKST
- Where
- Ne. Slopes of the Ern Ak Rng forecast zone
- Measured
- 68 kt (78 mph) measured gust
- Reported by
- Mesonet
Coastal Flood, Yukon Delta
- When
- November 8, 9:00 PM AKST to November 10, 11:00 AM AKST
- Where
- Yukon Delta forecast zone
- Property damage
- $40,000
- Reported by
- Public
What these are
- Blizzard
- Sustained winds or frequent gusts of 35 mph or more with falling or blowing snow that cuts visibility below a quarter mile for three hours or longer.
- High Wind
- Sustained non-thunderstorm winds of 40 mph or more for an hour, or gusts of 58 mph or more.
- Coastal Flood
- Flooding of coastal land by the sea, from storm surge, onshore wind or high tides.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
The same day elsewhere
More
Every storm in Alaska in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, November 2015
Sources
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 607739, 604852, 607741, 607742, 604905.