Flash Flooding and Heavy Rain in Florida, November 8 to 9, 2015

Name: Flash Flooding and Heavy Rain in Florida, November 8 to 9, 2015
Start: 2015-11-08T00:00
End: 2015-11-09T12:34
Location: Florida

November 8 to 9, 2015 · NWS JAX · 7 events in 1 county or zone

A classic heavy rainfall scenario set up along the NE Florida Atlantic Coast where a stationary surface front meandered in the lower levels with strong onshore flow on the northern side of the boundary. Aloft deep layer SW flow and strong upper level divergence within the right-rear quadrant of a strong upper level jet enhanced deep layer lift over the stationary front.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: $802,000
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 7

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 7, 9:06 PM EST, 2 hours 54 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 7, 9:06 PM EST, 2 hours 54 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
906 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015

...BREEZY/WINDY AND MUCH COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS...

...ROUGH SURF/MINOR BEACH EROSION AND ELEVATED TIDAL LEVELS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...

.UPDATE...SURFACE ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING A COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING SE
GA. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SE GA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ACROSS NE
FL SUNDAY MORNING. A SWATH OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
WILL MOVE INTO INLAND SE GA BY LATE THIS EVE AND CONTINUE OVERNITE
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU SE GA. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL
ALSO OVERSPREAD  THE AREA OVERNITE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.
ON SUNDAY...A NE SURGE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
BREEZY/WINDY NE WINDS TO THE COAST ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS DUE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...ALONG WITH SPOTTY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT
RAIN...WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. HAVE IFR CONDITIONS BEGINNING AT SSI AT 04Z
AND MOST OF THE OTHER TAF SITES AT 06Z. THE EXCEPTION IS THAT SGJ
WILL BE MVFR AFT 06Z AND IFR AT 12Z SUN. IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
RAIN AND GUSTY NE WINDS IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR SUNDAY. AN
ISOLATED EMBEDDED STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT BRINGING
A STRONG SURGE OF NE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL LEGS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SE GA WATERS. LOW CLOUDS...AREAS OF FOG...SPOTTY
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONT.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE TO HIGH RISK EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  61  63  57  64 /  60  60  60  40
SSI  68  69  61  68 /  50  80  80  60
JAX  68  71  64  70 /  50  80  80  60
SGJ  71  76  68  74 /  50  70  70  60
GNV  69  75  68  76 /  50  70  70  50
OCF  69  77  69  79 /  40  70  60  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE
     FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

PP/AE

Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 7, 10:36 AM EST, 13 hours 24 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1036 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-081545-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-
WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-
ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
1036 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015

...WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND ATLANTIC WATERS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

...ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND AREA-WIDE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

STRENGTHENING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. HEAVY RAINFALL AND BRIEF LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN COASTAL LOCATIONS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY ALONG THE COAST AND
ATLANTIC WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE POSTED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
MORNING. ROUGH SURF...MINOR BEACH EROSION AND AN ELEVATED RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS WILL IMPACT THE COAST...ALONG WITH A POSSIBILITY OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL
LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

NELSON

The radar

The Jacksonville radar (KJAX), 29 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 04:58 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

5 heavy rain, 2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.

Heavy Rain, Duval

When: November 8, 12:00 AM EST to 7:00 PM EST
Where: Duval County, 0.69 mi N of (Nrb)nas Mayport
Reported by: ASOS
Coordinates: 30.390, -81.420

As of 7 pm, the ASOS at Naval Station Mayport measured 10.16 inches if daily rainfall.

Heavy Rain, Duval

When: November 8, 12:00 AM EST to 8:15 PM EST
Where: Duval County, 1.38 mi S of Greenfield
Reported by: Trained Spotter
Coordinates: 30.330, -81.450

A spotter measured 8.4 inches of daily rainfall.

Heavy Rain, Duval

When: November 8, 12:00 AM EST to 9:32 PM EST
Where: Duval County, 0.91 mi NE of Neptune Beach
Reported by: Broadcast Media
Coordinates: 30.310, -81.390

The public measured 8.7 inches of rainfall within 16 hours.

Heavy Rain, Duval

When: November 8, 12:00 AM EST to 2:00 PM EST
Where: Duval County, 0.69 mi N of (Nrb)nas Mayport
Reported by: ASOS
Coordinates: 30.390, -81.420

Mayport ASOS measured 2.77 inches of rainfall within an hour. The site measured 5.47 inches of rainfall since midnight.

Heavy Rain, Duval

When: November 8, 12:00 AM EST to 6:00 PM EST
Where: Duval County, 1.5 mi SSW of Ft Caroline Shrs
Reported by: Public
Coordinates: 30.350, -81.480

At least 7 inches of daily rainfall was measured since midnight in East Arlington.

Flash Flood, Duval

When: November 8, 7:00 PM EST to November 9, 10:41 AM EST
Where: Duval County, 0.81 mi SE of Ft George Is to 1.58 mi WSW of Wonder Wood
Cause: Heavy Rain
Property damage: $800,000
Reported by: Emergency Manager
Coordinates: 30.392, -81.420

Widespread and significant flash flooding impacts occurred from Mayport southward to Neptune Beach during the evening hours with over 10 inches of rainfall measured at Naval Station Mayport for the day, but of which fell within 6 hours. The first report of flooding was reported around 7:26 pm by Fire Dept/Rescue with a road flooded just south of the Wonderwood Expressway. By 8:15 pm, the county emergency management (EM) reported water flooded homes and apartments off of Mayport Road near the 2100 block. Around 9 pm, EM received multiple reports of roads flooded between 1st and 3rd Streets in Jacksonville Beach. EM also reported apartments were flooded between 2130 and 2160 Mayport Road, roads were flooded in Mayport Village along Broad Street and Ribault Street, numerous streets were closed in Neptune Beach due to flooding, and several residences along Forest Avenue, Oak Street and Magnolia Street has water within them. A vehicle drove into the ditch along the 100 block of Penman Road because the driver could not make out the edge of the road due to flooding. Also around 9 pm, EM relayed that flooding impacted all of Atlantic Beach with the worst hit areas including Aquatic Drive, Cavella Road, Skate Road, Selva Marina Drive and the north end of the city in the area of 19th Street and 20th Street. Many of these roads were completely inundated with water and water flowed into some residences along these streets. The police department responded to several calls for stranded vehicles due to flood water. At 9 pm, EM reported a few units at the Admirals Walk Apartment complex were affected by flood waters. Units at Mariners Village Apartments were also flooded. The Arium Apartments at 2160 Mayport Road at 32 units affected by flooding last night. The Red Cross set up a service center to assist affected residents. Six condos along Seminole Road had water flow inside. Around 10:12 pm, a spotter reported water across the Days Inn parking lot near Atlantic and Aquatic drive with about 3 ft of standing water in the lot. Cars were submerged in the parking lot. Water entered part of the hotel. Aquatic drive was closed due to flood water about 2 ft deep in some areas. At 10:41 am on Nov. 9th, EM reported Palm Avenue in Atlantic Beach was impassable due to flooding. The street runs into Howell Park which was under water. The creek near city hall along Seminole Road and Palm Avenue is still very high but has subsided some and the parking lot for city hall and Russell Park is not longer flooded. The cost of damage was unknown, and is likely an underestimate.

Flash Flood, Duval

When: November 8, 7:00 PM EST to November 9, 12:34 PM EST
Where: Duval County, 1.84 mi SSW of Jacksonville to 1.98 mi SSW of Jacksonville
Cause: Heavy Rain
Property damage: $2,000
Reported by: NWS Storm Survey
Coordinates: 30.325, -81.681

An NWS JAX storm survey determined that flash flooding occurred during the evening and overnight hours within the McCoy's Creek basin on Sunday Nov. 8th as runoff from heavy rainfall was backed up by the evening high tide. On Monday Nov. 9th, flooding occurred during the morning hours within the basin. The primary flooding source east of Stockton Street was due to tidal departures of 1-1.5 ft above normal tides. West of Stockton Street fresh water rainfall runoff was expected to be the primary cause of flooding. Kings Street was also flooded. Parts of McCoys Creek Blvd were closed due to flood waters. Cost of damage was unknown but estimated for Storm Data.

What these are

Heavy Rain: Rainfall totals unusual for the place and season that did not produce a flood.
Flash Flood: Flooding that begins within six hours of the rain that causes it, or of a dam or levee failure or ice jam release, often with deadly speed.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Florida in 2015 Every state in 2015 This day in weather history Warnings in Florida, November 2015

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 604722, 604724, 604725, 604726, 604727, 604717, 604729.