The month of March was another dry month for the Texas Panhandle, with most areas receiving less than one quarter inch of precipitation during the month. Short-term precipitation deficits worsened especially in the eastern Panhandle.
Every event with a place to put it; 20 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AMA wrote it up.
The month of March was another dry month for the Texas Panhandle, with most areas receiving less than one quarter inch of precipitation during the month. Short-term precipitation deficits worsened especially in the eastern Panhandle. Extreme (D3) to Exceptional (D4) Drought conditions expanded to cover all of the Texas Panhandle by the end of March. The worst conditions were located in the central Panhandle from approximately Hartley County to Carson County. Amarillo recorded 0.20 inches of precipitation for the month (1.19 inches below normal), Dalhart recorded 0.09 inches of precipitation (1.08 inches below normal), and Borger recorded 0.07 inches of precipitation (1.34 inches below normal).
Soil moisture was rated mostly very short by month's end. High winds dried out soils and caused some areas of blowing dust problems, which limited farmers preparing for the upcoming summer season. Winter wheat under irrigation was progressing well, with growers running center pivots more frequently as days warmed. Dryland winter wheat declined in many areas. Rangeland remained dormant, and producers were still supplementing cattle. Stocker cattle were placed on graze-out wheat or moved to feed yards. Upper soil zones remained at extremely dry levels in the southeastern and western parts of the Panhandle, while slightly less dry in the central Panhandle. Deeper soil moisture was less than 30 percent of normal in most of the Panhandle, but values of 70 to 90 percent of normal were scattered across the eastern Texas Panhandle. The Palmer Drought Severity Index indicated a a rating of Severe Drought conditions for the Texas Panhandle. Countywide burn bans were supported in most counties.
Stream flows across the majority of the Panhandle were at below normal to much below normal levels, causing Moderate Hydrologic Drought especially in the southern Texas Panhandle. The reservoirs of Palo Duro and Greenbelt Lake were below 5 percent and 15 percent capacity respectively, and Lake Meredith was at zero percent capacity. Water watches for several public water systems persisted through March while voluntary to mandatory mild water restrictions have been enacted.
Economic losses due to the drought through March were predominately the result of supplemental watering, winter wheat losses, reduction of cattle herd sizes, and supplemental feed for cattle on drought-thinned rangeland and pastures.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Amarillo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 28, 11:56 PM CST, 4 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 1156 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014 .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BACK SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING BEHIND IT. LOW CLOUDS ARE ALREADY NEARING KGUY...AND IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL IN AT KGUY OVERNIGHT AND LAST INTO LATE SATURDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR AND VFR FOR A TIME AT KGUY LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE QUICKLY DETERIORATING AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS CIGS FALL AND PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF -FZRA. FOR KAMA AND KDHT...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL MAKE IT OVERNIGHT. DO THINK THE LOW CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT INTO KDHT AND HAVE INTRODUCED SOME IFR CONDITIONS ACCORDINGLY. KAMA LOOKS TO BE RIGHT ON THE EDGE WITH SOME VERY SHALLOW MOISTENING DEPICTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THUS HAVE INTRODUCED SOME MVFR VSBYS WITH FOG...BUT CONDITIONS COULD CERTAINLY GO LOWER THAN THIS IN THE 11-15Z TIMEFRAME. INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SCOUR OUT ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG AT KAMA AND KDHT BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SOME -RA POSSIBLE. KB && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014/ UPDATE... ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE. LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW APPEARS CONDUCIVE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT...AND MODEL LOW-LEVEL RH PROGS...SREF VSBY PROBS...AND HRRR VSBY PROGS ALL SUPPORT THIS. MAY SEE A FETCH OF LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS WORK INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK PANHANDLE...LIMITING THE FOG THREAT AND SUPPORTING MORE OF A LOW CLOUD SCENARIO IN THESE AREAS /AND STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY DZ OR FZDZ TOWARD DAYBREAK IF THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST LAYER DEEPENS ENOUGH IN THIS FAR NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA/. FARTHER SOUTH HOWEVER...FOG LOOKS LIKE A BETTER BET ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES...BUT WARM GROUND TEMPS FROM THE RECENT WARM STRETCH SHOULD PREVENT ANY REAL ICING PROBLEMS ON ROADWAYS. NOT TO MENTION...THE GREATER PROBABILITIES OF DENSER FOG APPEAR TO BE FARTHER SOUTH WHERE TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING. KB PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014/ SHORT TERM... THROUGH TONIGHT: AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL OOZE ITS WAY INTO THE PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING. BEHIND THE FRONT, LOW CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PANHANDLES. ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY DEEPEN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE JUST ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES. IF THE DRIZZLE IS IN THE FROZEN FORM, IT SHOULDN'T CAUSE ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS AS GROUND TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RATHER WARM LATELY. NONETHELESS, IT COULD STICK TO ELEVATED AND METAL SURFACES. SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL PLAY HAVOC WITH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW, AND WE'RE A LITTLE CONCERNED THE FRONT COULD SEEP FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN WE'RE CURRENTLY FORECASTING. LIKE THE PREVIOUS SHIFT MENTIONED, IF THIS SCENARIO OCCURS, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAR TOO WARM OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE THERMAL GRADIENT WILL BE VERY IMPRESSIVE ALONG THE FRONT SUCH THAT TEMPERATURES MAY VARY BY NEARLY 40 DEGREES WITHIN A 50-MILE DISTANCE. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN INCREASING TOMORROW AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT TO SEE SOME HIGH-BASED SHOWERS, POSSIBLY EVEN A THUNDERSTORM, MOVE OUT OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO OUR NORTHWEST AREAS AFTER 2 PM. THESE HIGH-BASED SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH BENEATH THEM, BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, FORCING FOR ASCENT STRENGTHENS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. AS THE COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD, ARCTIC AIR WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN WITH TIME FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. AS THIS OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER FORCING, PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 60 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS VERY DIFFICULT AS THE NAM REMAINS THE FASTEST AND DEEPEST WITH THE ARCTIC AIR. IN FACT, IF THE NAM IS CORRECT, SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER ESSENTIALLY BECOMES THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER, ALL OTHER MODELS ARE NOT AS DEEP AND FAST WITH THE COLD AIR, MAKING FOR A MESSY PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST. AS A RESULT, WE THINK WE'LL INITIALLY SEE RAIN CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN FINE SNOW GRAINS AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS. ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE, FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPES. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY SNOW FOR THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS BECOMES FULLY ENTRENCHED, BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET CAN'T BE RULED OUT SUNDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 40 IN THE SOUTHWEST (NEAR SUNRISE) TO THE MID TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW MAY OCCUR. ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM FREEZING RAIN WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH. HOWEVER, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PART OR ALL OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BLOWING SNOW COULD ALSO LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SOME DRIFTING. LONG TERM... THE GFS IS DEPICTING SOME POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FREEZING FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS A LITTLE LOW TO INSERT INTO THE FORECAST CURRENTLY. MONDAY NIGHT A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS DEPICTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. MODELS AGREE THAT THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DRY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. HOWEVER SOME PRECIP MAY BE POSSIBLE A BIT NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WHERE THE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE SPLIT FLOW JET OVERLAP. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TUESDAY AND MOST OF WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT A BROAD TROUGH WILL DROP ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON WHERE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE FOR PRECIP TO OCCUR. THE ECMWF IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP WHILE THE GFS IS A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE. THE FORECAST LEANS CLOSER TO THE DRY GFS. NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM NICELY BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HINTED AT SOME PRECIP CHANCES FOR FRIDAY BUT THESE CHANCES HAVE BEEN PUSHED BACK TO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE GFS AND INTO SATURDAY FOR THE ECMWF. FIRE WEATHER... ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP TO 18 TO 20 PERCENT. TWENTY FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 17 TO 25 MPH RANGE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON FROM A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF THIS COMING WEEK...NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 950 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014 OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-011200- CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB- HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON- GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH- 950 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AREAS OF FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND BREEZY WINDS. A WINTRY MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TEXAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND ONE INCH OR LESS. ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. WIND CHILL VALUES ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO BETWEEN 5 DEGREES BELOW ZERO AND 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AS WELL AS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND BREEZY WINDS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AREA FIRE MANAGERS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. KB
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
20 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Extreme Drought (D3) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Extreme Drought (D3) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Extreme Drought (D3) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Severe Drought (D2) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Severe Drought (D2) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Extreme Drought (D3) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Extreme Drought (D3) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Extreme Drought (D3) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Extreme Drought (D3) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Extreme Drought (D3) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Extreme Drought (D3) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Exceptional Drought (D4) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Exceptional Drought (D4) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Extreme Drought (D3) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Extreme Drought (D3) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Extreme Drought (D3) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Extreme Drought (D3) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Extreme Drought (D3) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Extreme Drought (D3) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Extreme Drought (D3) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2014Every state in 2014This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, March 2014
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 509375, 509376, 509377, 509378, 509379, 509380, 509381, 509382, 509383, 509384, 509385, 509386, 509387, 509388, 509390, 509391, 509392, 509393, 509394, 509395.