Damaging Wind in South Dakota, June 14, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
708 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014

CLUSTER OF TSTMS MOVING MOVING OUT OF NERN WY INTO SWRN
SD/BLKHLS...AND THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO
PROGRESS EWD ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES THIS EVE SO HAVE UPPER THE POPS
CONSIDERABLE FOR THAT AREA. REST OF FCST MOSTLY UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS CLOSED LOW OVER MONTANA WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COMPLEX OF MORNING STORMS HAS
EXITED THE AREA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WHILE ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING AND
SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND IS MOVING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AT THE
MOMENT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TROF HAS SHIFTED INTO
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH NORTHERN ROCKIES HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE 60S...WITH SOME 50S ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS. WINDS ARE BREEZY IN SPOTS OUT OF THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND THEN START TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET IN
MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY COULD LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE CLIPS THE AREA. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME 30S
POSSIBLE IN THE BLACK HILLS.

SUNDAY...ZONAL FLOW/WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA FOR A
BRIEF TIME AS CLOSED LOW LIFTS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THIS
WILL BRING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. BRISK
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA ON BACK EDGE OF EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS
WILL FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS
DIFFERENT SOMEWHAT ON THE EXACT DISPOSITION OF EACH SHORTWAVE...AS
WELL AS ANY 500MB CUTOFF LOWS. BUT THE PATTERN STRONGLY SUGGESTS
ACTIVE WEATHER WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AND AT LEAST A
COUPLE DAYS OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL WAVER
SOFTLY ON EITHER SIDE OF SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014

SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH LOCAL
IFR CIGS/VSBYS. OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
649 AM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-151300-
BENNETT-BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-
HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-
WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-ZIEBACH-
649 AM MDT (749 AM CDT) SAT JUN 14 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE DAY WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY.
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY
SEVERE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...
OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/RAPIDCITY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
448 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014

WYZ055-142330-
SOUTHERN CAMPBELL WY-
448 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CAMPBELL COUNTY
UNTIL 530 PM MDT...

AT 445 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES WEST OF PINE TREE JUNCTION...OR 29 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF WRIGHT...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  PINE TREE JUNCTION...

&&

LAT...LON 4366 10602 4369 10539 4348 10542 4349 10601
      4350 10603 4365 10604
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 274DEG 30KT 4356 10598

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
533 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0457 PM     HAIL             24 SSW SAVAGETON        43.54N 105.97W
06/14/2014  E1.00 INCH       CAMPBELL           WY   PUBLIC

&&

POJORLIE