Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, June 14, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
652 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2014

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

Overall, not that overly impressed with severe potential versus looking
at data yesterday. A few things to note. 1) the wave driving all this
is still located across southern Utah and won't eject out across the
Central Plains until late tonight. 2) surface winds continue to veer
this afternoon, which will limit discrete storm potential as mean cloud
layer wind is basically parallel to the sfc boundary/dryline/eventual
front. 3) the overall trend in convective allowing models is to slow
initiation down until later tonight.

In looking at various convective allowing models (both cores of the
WRF, HRRR, 4 km NAM), I have slowed down pops and resultant weather
impacts. Think two areas will see storms first... 1) in the upslope
/post-frontal area across NE Colorado into NW Kansas. 2) and along the
frontal boundary across south-central Nebraska. The first area to impact
my forecast area will be along the I-70 corridor late this evening.
Here, the potential is for the largest hail size. The front will eventually
begin to undercut any surface based instability with elevated CAPE left
over. As mentioned, mean flow and frontal boundaries are basically parallel,
and this favors storms to line out. Seeder/feeder mechanisms and increased
beneficial competition along with marginal anvil SR flow should limit
hail potential. I do think that storms will develop fairly strong cold
pools and microbursts will remain a more significant threat through
the overnight period. Given the southwesterly momentum already in place,
think that areas along and east of Highway 283 stand the chance to see
the most significant severe weather impacts. Anticipate that the most
interesting/discrete behaving storms will remain north of the forecast
area. Convection should be out of the region by early tomorrow morning
as MCS cold pools and forward propagating accelerations are increased
and strengthened.

For tomorrow, will see much cooler temperatures in the wake of the fropa
with highs in the 80s. There will be another chance for thunderstorms
across south-central Kansas along the front. Drier/more stable will
advect in, so will keep low chance pops in for now.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

From Monday into Wednesday, southwesterly upper level flow prevails,
bringing warmer temps, and little to no chances of significant
rainfall. A dryline may set up each day across southwest Kansas with
only a slight chance for a thunderstorm east of the dryline across
parts of south central Kansas. With 850 mb temps in the mid to upper
20s to near 30 Celsius far west, highs will be in the 90s each day.
Currently Monday looks the warmest with highs near 100. South winds
will also pick up by each morning into the afternoon at 20 to 30 mph
with partly cloudy to mostly clear skies. Overnight lows will be in
the mid 60s on Monday morning, then around 70 into Wednesday morning.

For Thursday into Friday, an upper low and trough moves across the
Plains with a slightly better chance for rainfall and cooler temps
with a cold front. Highs cool into the 80s with lows in the 60s.

For Saturday, the upper low is forecast to be east of the Plains
with temps warming back to around 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

Thunderstorms will likely be in the vicinity of GCK, DDC, HYS
terminals during the late evening hours for a 2 or 3 hour period
as a cold front moves through. The HYS terminal has the best
chance at seeing the strongest thunderstorm activity, and will
include a TEMPO group for HYS. Otherwise, will handle with VCTS
for this event and ammend as appropriate once storms develop and
are trackable. After the thunderstorm threat moves east, we will
see north winds 10 to 15 knots through the mid morning hours with
winds decreasing and shifting more to the northeast during the day
Sunday with VFR prevailing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  85  65  98 /  30  10  10  10
GCK  56  85  64  98 /  30  10  10  10
EHA  55  85  63  98 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  58  87  64  98 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  58  83  64  97 /  60  10  10  10
P28  66  88  69  95 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 10 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ031-045-046-
064>066-078>081-088>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Umscheid

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
222 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-151930-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
222 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014 /122 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA UNTIL
10 PM CDT. SEE WEATHER MESSAGE FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.

LATE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 283. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
GOLF BALLS...OUTFLOW WINDS GUSTS OF AT LEAST 60 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
...AND LIGHTNING. THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR STANDS TO SEE THE LARGEST
HAIL WHILE SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS STANDS TO SEE THE HIGHEST WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEPART THE OUTLOOK AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
KANSAS SUNDAY EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND OUTFLOW WINDS ARE THE MAIN
THREATS...AS WELL AS LIGHTNING.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
MID WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF SEVERE
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

&&

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