Hail in Oklahoma, October 8, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
401 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG THE ELEVATED
FRONTAL ZONE AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MID MORNING
HOURS WHILE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AS THE SFC BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD AND FOCUSES
CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

THE SFC BOUNDARY AND/OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WILL PUSH NEAR THE
OK/KS BORDER ON THURSDAY...WITH CONVECTION EXPANDING NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY AND EXPANDING FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
FORCING ALOFT WILL ALSO BE INCREASING AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE THAT
WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY WHILE TAPPING AN AXIS OF
DEEPER MOISTURE. THE RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD PRECIP THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

DATA HAVE COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER UPPER WAVE
FOLLOWING QUICKLY BEHIND THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM. WHILE THIS IS A
RECENT CONVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...IT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED IN
SOME WAY FOR SEVERAL DAYS BY THE ECMWF/UKMET THUS THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE THAT THE SCENARIO PANS OUT. THE RESULT WOULD BE ANOTHER ROUND
OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING THEREAFTER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  68  87  64 /  10  10  20  60
FSM   88  67  87  66 /  20  10  20  50
MLC   89  67  86  69 /  10  10  10  40
BVO   87  62  86  60 /  10  20  30  70
FYV   85  60  84  63 /  20  10  30  50
BYV   84  62  83  63 /  20  20  30  60
MKO   87  65  87  65 /  10  10  20  50
MIO   85  64  85  61 /  10  20  50  60
F10   89  65  87  66 /  10  10  20  50
HHW   88  67  87  68 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM....07

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
440 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2014

ARZ010-019-OKZ069-081015-
ADAIR OK-CRAWFORD AR-WASHINGTON AR-
440 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 515 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD AND SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN ADAIR

AT 440 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF STILWELL...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...STILWELL AND ODELL.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. RESIDENTS
IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3563 9444 3572 9476 3584 9473 3581 9435
TIME...MOT...LOC 0940Z 284DEG 15KT 3575 9465