Extreme Cold in North Dakota, February 28, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
225 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WIND CHILL
HIGHLIGHTS. HAVE LEANED TOWARD COLDER ECMWF/GEM GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES.

CURRENTLY...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS ARE
STILL GUSTING TO AROUND 35 MPH IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA AND OVER SOME
OF THE ELEVATED LOCATIONS. MOST AREAS HAVE SUBSIDED INTO THE 20 T0
30 MPH RANGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. WIND CHILLS ARE AROUND
30 BELOW ACROSS THE NORTH...AND DROPPING TO AROUND 15 TO 20 BELOW
SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL DROP THE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL. WILL ALSO DROP THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN THE
NORTH. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO ISSUE WIND CHILL WARNING/ADVISORY
HIGHLIGHTS FOR TONIGHT AS ARCTIC AIRMASS CONTINUED TO BUILD OVER
THE STATE. HIGHLIGHTS WILL EXTEND INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS EVEN
THOUGH WE MAY DROP BELOW CRITERIA FOR A PERIOD SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WE DROP RIGHT BACK DOWN SATURDAY EVENING. THUS
HIGHLIGHTS WILL RUN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

ON THE EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. THIS AREA HAS BEEN NEARLY STEADY FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA
INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. MODELS DO INDICATE THE AREA
UNDULATING A BIT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE BEING SUPPRESSED FARTHER SOUTH. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
ARCTIC SYSTEM...THINK THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION AND
AMOUNTS MAY BE TOO HIGH. THEREFORE CUT BACK ON POPS...TO MAINLY
CHANCE CATEGORY FAR SOUTHWEST AND A SLIGHT CHANCE SPREADING EAST
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014

A RETURN TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE/UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...HOWEVER TIMING AND LOCATION OF INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS
REMAINED UNRESOLVED BEYOND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
MODERATE INTO THE 20S BY THE MID AND END OF THE WEEK.

THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE H5
PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM. AN UPPER LOW WILL PINCH OFF ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...WITH A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
AROUND IT...SENDING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THE
GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HANDLING AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
AND PUSH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE WEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY. UPWARDS OF AROUND ONE INCH ESPECIALLY
IN THE WEST CAN BE EXPECTED.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE GFS SENDS ANOTHER PUSH
OF SNOW MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
ON TUESDAY. TIMING ISSUES ARISE HERE AS THE GEM/ECMWF ARE DRY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT THEN SHOW AN AREA OF SNOW ACROSS THE WEST
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. UTILIZED THE ALLBLEND WHICH CARRIES A SLIGHT
CHC/CHC OF SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MORE CHANCES OF SNOW OCCUR THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH DIFFERENT INTENSITIES...TIMING...AND LOCATIONS IN
THE SNOW DETAILS. STAYED WITH THE ALLBLEND WHICH ADVERTISES A CHANCE
OF SNOW FOR MOST AREAS. AT THIS TIME...CANNOT GET MORE SPECIFIC DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTIES MENTIONED ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT KISN.
PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AT KDIK...KBIS KMOT AND KJMS 18-24 UTC
TODAY BEFORE LOWER LAYERS CLEAR...THEN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER WITH SUCH A COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS...CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME THIN STRATUS REPORTING AS A BROKEN LAYER. STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST /3 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NDZ011-012-019>023-025-033>037-040>048-050-051.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ001>004-
009>012.

&&

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH

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