High Wind in Texas, February 28, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
520 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide during the next 24 hours.
Gusty west to northwest winds will occur at all Taf sites will
occur today, but winds will decrease after 01/00Z.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Fairly tranquil and very warm conditions into Saturday before sharply
colder temperatures arrive Sunday behind a strong cold front.

A s/w crossing the TX Panhandle this morning will keep winds on the
strong side over the northern half of the Permian Basin today. This
combined with low rh's will present a fire danger risk. Please see
the discussion below. Temperatures should warm well into the 70s and
80s today with a downsloping, westerly sfc wind. Similar sfc
conditions are expected Saturday while mid level flow begins to
shift to southwesterly ahead of an approaching West Coast trough.
This will be the warmest day with temperatures will into the 80s to
near 90 along the Pecos River. Mid level winds also increase across
the Guadalupe Mountains and adjacent plains on Saturday, but high
level clouds may prevent much mixing. Guidance suggests winds should
stay below warning criteria at GDP while possibly reaching
advisory levels in parts of Eddy Co.

Sunday presents a forecast challenge with major disagreement in the
models when it comes to frontal timing. As the upper trough
approaches the area from the west, a fast moving s/w will move
across the Northern Plains Sunday morning. The former wave should
give a strong cold front a good push south. The GFS and ECMWF are
weaker with the northern wave and thus keep the cold air lodged
north of the area until the western trough passes late Sunday.
The NAM however pushes the front quickly south into the region
Sunday morning. Given what happened this past Tuesday with the
last front and the very cold airmass sitting across the northern
U.S., will side more with the NAM and bring the front through
early Sunday. This will greatly affect highs Sunday with
temperatures likely falling or remaining steady behind the front.
Have lowered highs several degrees across most of the Permian
Basin with the possibility of temperatures being even colder.
There could also be a few showers across the east on Sunday with
the trough passage.

Temperatures will be well below normal Monday with a quick rebound
by midweek. Several waves will pass just to our north next week
within northwesterly flow aloft. Will keep the forecast dry for now,
but this will need to be watched, especially across eastern areas.

Fire Weather...

A strong mid level jet will move over the northern Permian Basin and
Western Low Rolling Plains this morning, and although it will move
east of the region by afternoon, think it will contribute to gusty
westerly winds in these areas.  Since there will be a fairly tight
surface pressure gradient through 28/18Z, and conditions will be dry
enough for RH/s around 15 percent, will issue a Red Flag Warning for
Dawson and Howard counties, and the counties to the east.  The
Warning will be in effect from 28/16Z until 01/00Z.  Near critical
fire weather conditions will be possible over much of the rest of
the forecast area, to the north of Interstate 10.  But RH/s will
struggle to drop below 15 percent in these areas, not to mention 20
foot winds will struggle to stay above 20 mph sustained.  Recovery
tonight will be fair in most locations.

Southwest winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph across much of the
forecast area Saturday, while warmer than normal temperatures result
in minimum afternoon RH/s of 10 to 20 percent.  However, the
stronger winds will occur in the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast
New Mexico Plains where RH/s will likely stay above 15 percent, for
the most part.  RH/s will dip to 10 to 15 percent from the Davis
Mountains, northeastward through the Permian Basin.  But 20 foot
winds in these areas will struggle to surpass 20 mph sustained.
Therefore, will call for elevated fire weather conditions over most
of the area, but expect critical conditions will be few and far
between.  Recovery Saturday night will be poor to fair generally
west of a Hobbs to Fort Stockton to Sanderson line, and good or
better to the east.

On Sunday, a cold front will move into the area and limit even
elevated fire weather conditions.  There could be gusty westerly
winds in the Guadalupe an Davis Mountains, but minimum afternoon
RH/s look to stay above 15 percent.  Cooler than normal temperatures
will prevail over the region Monday, and possibly Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 80  48  84  45  /   0   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              82  46  86  45  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                83  48  88  50  /   0   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  84  52  86  55  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           85  54  88  51  /   0   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          73  50  76  45  /   0   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   77  45  80  43  /   0   0   0  10
MARFA TX                   76  36  78  41  /   0   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  48  86  44  /   0   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  82  50  85  46  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                    86  46  89  47  /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Borden...Dawson...
     Howard...Mitchell...Scurry.

&&

67/29

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
330 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-010930-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
330 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014 /230 AM MST FRI FEB 28 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND THE NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN TODAY DUE TO
DRY, WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS.  A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF A LAMESA TO BIG SPRING LINE FROM
10 AM UNTIL 6 PM CST.

WESTERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS TODAY.  GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

WESTERLY WINDS WILL AGAIN RISE TO AT LEAST 30 TO 40 MPH IN THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY.  GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55 MPH WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE.  SOME OF THE ADJACENT PLAINS OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
COULD SEE SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH, WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 45 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND