Flood in Nevada, February 10, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
358 AM PST MON FEB 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN AND SNOW WILL DIMINISH TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA. MOST OF THE REMAINING PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING
WILL BE CENTERED OVER LANDER...EUREKA...AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES.
THE REGION WILL HAVE A COUPLE DAYS TO ABSORB THE RECENT HEAVY
RAINS BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE BEGINS TO IMPACT NORTHERN
NEVADA WEDNESDAY ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
DIMINISHED OVER MOST OF HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES...WITH MOST OF
THE REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THIS MORNING FOCUSED ON
LANDER...EUREKA...AND WESTERN WHITE PINE COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS MORNING WITH LINGERING SHOWERS OVER
CENTRAL NEVADA BEING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
HAVE CONTINUED THE ELEVATION BASED SNOW ADVISORIES FOR LANDER
EUREKA AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES THROUGH 9AM THIS MORNING...HOWEVER
NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO OF NEW SNOW BEFORE THE
SHOWERS END LATER THIS MORNING. SIMILARLY...HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE
ENDING TIME FOR THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW IN THE RUBY
MOUNTAINS OF ELKO COUNTY. MOST NEW SNOW THIS MORNING IN THE RUBIES
WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE RANGE AS THE MOISTURE
TRENDS SOUTHEAST.

A BRIEF DRYING PERIOD SETS UP LATER TODAY WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING INTO EXTREME NORTHERN NEVADA WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY
REACHING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ELKO COUNTY. CENTRAL NEVADA WILL
REMAIN DRY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LOTS OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER SOUTHERN HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES
AS WELL AS LANDER AND EUREKA COUNTIES THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...WITH
SOME RECORD AMOUNTS BEING REPORTED. HAVE KEPT THE HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOK...PRODUCT RNOESFLKN...ACTIVE TO ADDRESS POTENTIAL IMPACTS
TO STREAMS AND RIVERS AS WELL AS OTHER LOW LYING AREAS THAT HAVE
RECEIVED HEAVY PRECIPITATION. SO FAR THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN TWO RIVER
GAUGES THAT HAVE SHOWN SIGNIFICANT RISES THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. ONE
OF THESE IS THE GAUGE ON THE OWYHEE RIVER NEAR MOUNTAIN CITY IN
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. THE FLOW ON THIS RIVER HAS CLIMBED FROM JUST
OVER 4 FEET ON SATURDAY TO NEARLY 5.5 FEET EARLY MONDAY. MINOR
FLOODING STAGE IS 8 FEET. WITH SHOWERS ENDING A LITTLE EARLIER
ACROSS NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...NOT EXPECTING THIS RIVER TO GET
ANYWHERE CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE. THE RIVER SHOWING THE GREATEST RISE
OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS IS THE SOUTH FORK OF THE HUMBOLDT RIVER
ABOVE TEN MILE CREEK...WHICH FLOWS INTO SOUTH FORK RESERVOIR.
THE FLOW ON THIS RIVER HAS CLIMBED FROM AROUND 4 FEET ON SATURDAY
TO 7.7 FEET EARLY MONDAY. MINOR FLOOD STAGE IS 9.5 FEET.
SIGNIFICANT RAINS THAT COULD IMPACT THIS RIVER HAVE
ENDED...HOWEVER RAINS UPSTREAM OF THIS GAUGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
RAISE THE LEVEL OF THIS RIVER THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS. AT THIS TIME THIS IS
THE MOST CONCERNING RIVER IN THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL ALLOW
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF PACIFIC MOISTURE TO STREAM ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN
NEVADA BRINGING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50
WILL REMAIN DRY. RIDGE BEGIN TO AMPLIFY THURSDAY NIGHT AND BY FRIDAY
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAINING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. DRY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. ECMWF/GEM MODELS DIG SHORT WAVE FURTHER SOUTH ON
SUNDAY BRINGING IT ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA FOR SOME SHOWERS WHILE THE
GFS KEEPS IT MUCH FURTHER NORTH FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS LEND SUPPORT TO THEIR DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS SO LEANED TOWARDS THE MAJORITY ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION AND HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. VERY MILD CONDITIONS
THRU SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE KWMC
TERMINAL THRU 14Z, KELY THRU 15Z, AND KEKO THRU 17Z. VFR CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 6000
FEET FOR SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...
WHITE PINE COUNTY.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR RUBY
MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 5500
FEET FOR NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY.

&&

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