Winter Weather in Arkansas, February 10 to 11, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
549 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR AT KHRO AND KBPK WITH ONLY SCT FLURRIES. FOR KHOT...KADF...
KLIT...KPBF...AND KLLQ CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR THIS EVENING THEN
IMPROVING TO MVFR AROUND MIDDAY TUE. OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUE
MORNING...AREAS OF -PL/-SN AT KLIT...KHOT...AND KADF. AREAS OF
-FZRA/-PL/-SN AT KPBF AND KLLQ.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES...LOCATION AND
AMOUNTS OF WINTER PRECIPITATION FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AR. THIS
WOULD MAINLY BE THE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY PERIODS. THEN OVERALL A
DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW AND CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AR TO SOUTH MO
MOVED EAST OUT OF AR...AND CLOUDS THINNED OVER THE AREA. EARLIER
UPDATE TO THIN CLOUDS AND END ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP. ALSO QUICK
LOOK AT EARLY MODEL RUNS HAVE LESS QPF AND AREA OF CONCERN HAS
BEEN PUSHED FARTHER SOUTH. SO DID UPDATE FORECAST AND WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY EARLIER TO MOVE MORE SOUTH AND LOWER AMOUNTS TO 1
TO 2...WITH ICING A TENTH TO TWO. ALOFT THE UPPER PATTERN HAS
BECOME ZONAL...WHICH WILL ALLOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HENCE THE CHANCE OF PRECIP LATER THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE CONSISTENCY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE GFS
THE OUTLIER. THE WINTER PRECIP TO EFFECT AR WILL BE LATER TONIGHT
AND THE OVERNIGHT...TO TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. THE EURO...NAM AND CAN ARE SIMILAR WITH MORE
OF A FOCUS OF PRECIP OVER SOUTHERN AR...WHILE GFS THE OUTLIER WITH
A FOCUS MORE OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTH AR. TIMING LOOKS GOOD WITH ALL
THE MODELS BEING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE MORE FAVORED AREA
SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN AR. FORECAST HAS AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW AND AROUND A TENTH OR TWO OF ICING...MAINLY SOUTHERN AR. WRF
AND GFS DO SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF ENHANCED LIFT...WHICH
COULD BRING A BIT HIGHER SNOW...WINTER PREICP AMOUNTS...BUT PIN
POINTING THE LOCATION HAS BECOME PROBLEMATIC. ZONAL FLOW SHOULD
KEEP THE SPEED OF THE SHORT WAVE MOVING AND THIS WILL ALSO KEEP
AMOUNTS LOWER. OTHERWISE TEMPS TONIGHT WILL LOWER BELOW FREEZING
QUICKLY AFER SUNSET...REACHING THE TEENS TO 20S OVERNIGHT. MODELS
DO FOCUS THE ENERGY MORE OVER S TO SE AR BY TUESDAY AM. ON TUESDAY
THIS SHORT WAVE AND SOME ADDITIONAL SOUTHERN STREAT ENERGY LINK UP
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...AND DO KEEP SOME PRECIP IN FAR S TO SE
AR MUCH OF TUESDAY...TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY AM...SO HAVE SOME
PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE SE AR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALL PRECIP SHOULD
EXIT AR BY WEDNESDAY AM.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN BASIC ENOUGH AGREEMENT THAT ONE
SOLUTION IS NOT PREFERRED VERSUS ANOTHER AND A BLEND OF FORECAST
SOLUTIONS IS PREFERRED. BOTTOM LINE REMAINS THE FORECAST CONTINUES
TO POINT TOWARDS A DEFINITE MODERATING TREND AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST WILL BE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL WITH TIME. GIVEN THIS PATTERN...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM...AS WINDS GAIN A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WITH THE MERCURY
ACTUALLY CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. SEVERAL
WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD BUT MOISTURE
APPEARS LIMITED AND WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     15  24  13  34 /  40  30  10  10
CAMDEN AR         23  34  21  40 /  70  50  60  10
HARRISON AR       14  27  15  37 /  20  20  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    21  33  19  40 /  60  30  30  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  20  31  19  37 /  70  20  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     23  34  21  37 /  90  60  60  30
MOUNT IDA AR      21  32  18  41 /  50  30  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  15  26  14  36 /  20  20  10  10
NEWPORT AR        15  25  15  33 /  50  30  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     21  33  20  37 /  70  40  50  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   20  32  17  40 /  70  30  10  10
SEARCY AR         17  27  16  35 /  70  20  20  10
STUTTGART AR      19  29  19  35 /  70  30  40  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-
FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-YELL.

&&

AVIATION...28

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
145 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-111100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
145 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A STRAY FLURRY OR A FEW SLEET PELLETS CAN BE NOT DISCOUNTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH BUT NO
ACCUMULATION OR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE
STATE...WITH MORE OF A WINTRY MIX OVER THE SOUTH. ACCUMULATIONS OF
AN INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR
AND ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY...WITH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE
NORTH. OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH.

WHILE WIDESPREAD TRAVEL ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION...ROADS
WILL LIKELY BECOME SLIPPERY.

A WINTER WEATHER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL NOON TUESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

PRECIPITATION WILL END OVER THE SOUTHEAST EARLY IN THE DAY TUESDAY
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BELOW FREEZING. TRAVEL CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
BY WEDNESDAY...AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE A LITTLE ABOVE
FREEZING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT THEIR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IF POSSIBLE.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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