Funnel Cloud in Mississippi, December 1, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1030 AM CST MON DEC 1 2014

.UPDATE...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY OOZING SOUTH TOWARD THE
ARKLAMISS DELTA WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR 40 DEGREES AT
CLARKSDALE AND NEAR 70 DEGREES AT GREENVILLE. THIS VERY SHARP
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT ENTERS THE ARKLAMISS DELTA AREAS OF THE CWA...AND THEREFORE
THE COLDER TEMPS AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BE VERY EVIDENT WHEN THE
ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES A SPECIFIC LOCATION. ALSO ANTICIPATE
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED POST-FRONT DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS IN THE DELTA AS
WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BUT OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONDITIONS
QUITE DIFFERENT...AS IN PARTIALLY SUNNY AND EXTREMELY MILD WITH
HIGHS IN MOST OF THESE SPOTS BUMPED UP 1 TO 3 DEGREES IN RESPONSE TO
DRAMATIC MORNING WARMING. AS MENTIONED...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE POST-FRONTAL ALTHOUGH ISOLATED (INSTABILITY-FUELED)
SHOWERS ARE DEFINITELY POSSIBLE IN AT LEAST SOUTHWESTERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY NEAR THE FRONTAL
ZONE THIS AFTERNOON TO SPARK A STRAY THUNDERSTORM...BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS VERY LOW. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CST MON DEC 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF DENSE FOG
REDUCING VISIBILITIES BELOW A QUARTER MILE HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH AND EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING. A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 9 AM WHEN VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE. ELSEWHERE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE PROVIDING
ENOUGH MIXING TO RESULT IN LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 1028MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST RIDGING WEST ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES WHILE A COLD FRONT WAS NOTED OVER THE ARKLATEX AND ACROSS THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY APPROACH
OUR NORTHWEST ZONES BY DAYBREAK AND BE NEAR A GREENWOOD MS TO
BASTROP LA LINE BY NOON. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL BE POST FRONTAL AND GENERALLY LIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
LIMITED AND WL NOT CARRY MENTION OF THUNDER. THE SHALLOW COLD AIR
NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL HOLD AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 60 DEGREES OVER
OUR NORTHWEST ZONES WHILE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TODAY OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS MID 70S WILL BE REACHED. THE COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY LOSE ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TODAY AND BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY THIS EVENING JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE.
A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER OUR CWA TUESDAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
NUDGE THE WEAKENED FRONT SOUTH OF OUR CWA BY TUESDAY EVENING. LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT TONIGHT AND LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT TUESDAY BUT DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES MAY NOT SEE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE SHORT TERM. COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT NORTH OF THE
FRONT WHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SOUTH OF THE FRONT. /22/

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THE MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT
WILL MAINLY BE DRY AND A WIND SHIFT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S.

THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE MAINLY ZONAL ON FRIDAY...BUT AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY ON
FRIDAY MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH PWATS CLIMBING ABOVE 1.5
INCHES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A SHORT WAVE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL DRIVE A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH OF I-20. THE
ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND
DRIVES THE COLD COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THE ECMWF ALSO INDICATES
ABOUT 25-30KTS OF H850 FLOW...100-200 OF ML CAPE AND 60-63F
DEWPOINTS. DUE TO THIS WILL GO WITH AT LEAST CHANCE THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. IF THIS SCENARIO HOLDS TRUE A
STRONG STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALSO.

THE GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE ON THERE SOLUTIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY WITH THE GFS WARMER/WETTER WHILE THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
COOLER/DRIER. THE MODEL BLENDS KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA./15/

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG HAS ABOUT DISSIPATED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...BUT LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE PLAGUE SOME SITES.  AS A
RESULT...AND WITH A FRONT DROPPING INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOOK FOR A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SOME SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...AND
COULD CAUSE FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO FALL TO MVFR/IFR PERIODICALLY IF
OBSERVED WITHIN A SITE'S AERODROME.  SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SHIFTS SOUTH THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE PERIOD. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       76  47  61  47 /  14  34  17   7
MERIDIAN      75  49  68  47 /   9  20  14   7
VICKSBURG     78  43  56  45 /  31  46  16   7
HATTIESBURG   77  51  73  49 /   8  10   4   5
NATCHEZ       77  47  61  47 /  28  41  10   7
GREENVILLE    69  38  50  44 /  78  37  13   7
GREENWOOD     73  40  54  44 /  57  52  18   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

BB/19/22/15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1035 AM CST MON DEC 1 2014

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
021645-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
1035 AM CST MON DEC 1 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

50

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

NO SHORT TERM HAZARDS EXPECTED.

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