Some strong and marginally severe thunderstorms developed south of a stationary frontal boundary draped from south central Illinois northeast to Pennsylvania. Marginal instability and weak wind shear limited the intensity of the storms.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Some strong and marginally severe thunderstorms developed south of a stationary frontal boundary draped from south central Illinois northeast to Pennsylvania. Marginal instability and weak wind shear limited the intensity of the storms.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 10, 2:33 AM CST, 2 hours 12 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 333 AM CDT Sat May 10 2014 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night) Issued at 330 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014 A frontal boundary currently stalled over the northwest sections of our CWA is forecast to lift back to the north as a warm front today. In the meantime showers and thunderstorms tracking northeast across the southern Purchase and Pennyrile regions of western Kentucky will gradually shift to the east of the area today along with the deeper moisture. However from midday through the early to mid afternoon hours showers and thunderstorms could pop up just about anywhere in the heat of the day. Model soundings are showing plenty instability and CAPE with no cap, so scattered convection will be possible. By late afternoon convection should be over for most of the CWA, but a weak short wave might generate a few showers and thunderstorms that could make it into the far northwest sections of our CWA by 00Z (7 PM). A few of these storms could become severe over the northwest sections of our CWA with large hail being the main hazard. Precipitation chances will spread across the northwest half of our CWA this evening. A few of these storms could become severe over the northwest sections with large hail being the main hazard. After midnight tonight with rising heights aloft precipitation chances begin to migrate northward. As the heights aloft continue to rise and mid level temperatures continue to warm from southwest to northeast, precipitation chances on Sunday shift to the northeast half of our CWA. A developing storm system over the plains will enhance the ridging aloft across the area Sunday night, so it should be dry. After a brief respite, precipitation chances make their way back into the forecast on Monday as the aforementioned storm system moves out of the plains and approaches and ultimately crosses the area. Consequently POPS increase substantially from Monday into Monday night. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 330 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014 The wet weather will linger into at least the first half of the long term as a deep longwave trough slowly trudges east across the nation. Rain is not expected all the time, but until the trough axis finally clears the region late in the week, the chance for rain will be present each day. Starting with 12Z Tuesday, the axis of the 500mb trough will be positioned over the Plains. A cold front will be draped along the Mississippi Valley from low pressure over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario. As the front makes gradual passage, showers and thunderstorms will be likely. Given the orientation of the synoptic features, the main concern during this time should be locally heavy rain, though an isolated strong storm certainly cannot be ruled out. A brief lull in the precipitation may arrive Tuesday night--and this is where the models diverge. The GFS combines the northern and southern streams into one large trough that sweeps most of the precipitation east of the area through the remainder of the week. On the flip side, the ECMWF and GEM keep the southern stream energy separate, and the slower passage of this energy results in the development of another wave of low pressure that yields more rain Wednesday into Thursday. Given the depiction by ensemble solutions and model forecast continuity, a slower solution makes the most sense at the moment. As a result, we will carry at least a low chance of rain showers through Thursday night--until the trough axis shifts east of the forecast area. Most of the instability appears to move east of the region beyond Wednesday, so will just carry a mention of showers Wednesday night through Thursday night. Much more certain is the drop in temperatures in the wake of the Tuesday cold frontal passage. A gradual cooling trend will take place through the remainder of the week as highs drop back into the 60s by Thursday and Friday, with lows dropping back into the upper 40s and lower 50s. Northwest flow on the back side of the departing trough will keep conditions cool but mainly dry as we head into next weekend. && .AVIATION... Issued at 330 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014 The cold front has basically ground to a halt east of the area, so south to southwest winds will prevail through the entire period. In addition, MVFR ceilings are a good bit through at least mid- morning at all locations. Some guidance advertises IFR ceilings, and would not discount it completely, but will leave things MVFR for now. It should scatter out in the late morning, and would expect VFR conditions for the second half of the period. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible throughout the area in the afternoon, but confidence is low in any development, and even then, the coverage would be too low to mention at any terminal at this time. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. MO...NONE. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM/FIRE WX...RP AVIATION...DS
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 404 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-110915- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 404 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THE QUAD STATE THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. DURING THIS PERIOD A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN HAZARD. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT...ON AND OFF CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. DURING THIS PERIOD A FEW STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ENTIRELY THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO OCCUR. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... IN THE NEAR TERM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM MOUNT VERNON ILLINOIS TO CAPE GIRARDEAU TO VAN BUREN MISSOURI. JP
The Ft Campbell radar (KHPX), 21 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 10:42 UTC.
1 heavy rain, 1 hail, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A line of thunderstorms progressed slowly east across the county. Water started to pool in low water crossings around the county.
Cross arms were broken off at a railroad crossing. Street signs were blown down.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2014Every state in 2014This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, May 2014
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 512572, 512220, 512222.