Tornado and Damaging Winds in Alabama, May 10 to 12, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
301 PM EDT Sat May 10 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
So far this afternoon, convection has remained progressive with
rainfall amounts generally light. Although some heavier rates have
been noted on dual-pol, the window for any flooding concerns is
gradually closing as convection is expected to diminish after sunset
and there are currently no signs of any training occurring.
Overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s are expected with the
possibility of some fog developing late tonight.

.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
Sunday...The period begins with full amplitude trough over Wrn
states and weak ridging over Ern states. At surface...high well east
of Carolina Coasts with ridge WSW including Gulf region. Some
early fog will linger. Otherwise...remnants of upstream shortwave
will pivot across the Tri-State region. This will likely combine
with some form of a disturbed sea breeze front to provide us with
a good chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly
northern counties closest to shortwave. Fog will again develop
late Sun night.

Monday...Deep Wrn trough begins to pivot EWD allowing Ern ridge to
amplify. Front over Plains shifts Ewd but slows down as it
runs into strengthening Ern upper ridge. Surface ridge remains in
place. So wdly sct-low scattered aftn storms will be possible and
remain confined to mostly the Atlantic sea breeze front, and more
isolated along the Panhandle sea breeze front.

Will go with 40-10% and 20-10% NW-SE POP gradient Sun and Sun night
and 30-10% N-S POPs on Mon. Expect highs mid to upper 80s on Sun and
upper 80s to low 90s on Mon. Lows in the mid to upper 60s each
night.

.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
The period commences highly amplified with ridging over Wrn and Ern
states and trough in between. At surface...strong Bermuda high
centered high off Carolina Coast with ridging WSW across Gulf
region. Low over Wrn Great Lakes with cold front Swd across
ARK/Ern TX. Locally this translates to fair weather although
winds will veer to onshore by nightfall advecting moisture into
region.

During the rest of the period...there is a noted model difference so
confidence in timing not high. The GFS is noticeably faster than
ECMWF with front as latter advertises surface low developing over
Lwr Miss Valley on Wed that slows down boundary by at least 12 hrs.
If ECMWF verifies then low would move NEWD across SE region on Thurs
with wrap around moisture and a cooler airmass wrecking havoc on
temps especially NW third of CWA delaying clearing into Fri. For now
since neighboring offices vary in their preferences...will blend
both solutions with a slight lean towards GFS.

Thus...upstream trough will move Ewd on Wed pushing Ern ridge into
extreme Wrn Atlc. This kicks front Ewd eroding surface ridge with
winds veering to SWLY. Front should cross west half of CWA during
the late day and east half at night. At present...as a broad upper
level trough digs very slowly across the SE on Thurs...this front
brings scattered showers and at least isold thunderstorms mainly
Wed night thru Thurs and given upper support cant discount some
strong storms. By Thurs eve...front limps E/SE of CWA with high
pressure building in resulting in dry and cooler conditions and
lower humidity thru Sat.

Will go with NIL-Slgt Chc POPs Tues and Tues night...Slgt Chc-Chc
Wed...Sct Wed night into Thurs then NIL POPS thru Sat. Temperatures
will be several degrees above normal at the beginning of the week
with readings around 90 inland, dropping closer to mid-May normals
in the mid 80s by the end of the week.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Sunday] Scattered convection is expected across the
western half of the area this afternoon with the highest
concentration around DHN. Convection is expected to diminish after
sunset with areas of fog and/or low ceilings developing late tonight.

&&

.Marine...
Sub cautionary southeasterly winds will prevail for the next
several days with seas in the 2 to 4 foot range, highest west of
Apalachicola. Hazardous marine conditions are not expected through
at least Wednesday.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are unlikely for the next several days.

&&

.Hydrology...
All area rivers will continue their downward trend over the next
several days. Only the lower Suwannee remains in flood as of this
morning.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   66  87  67  89  65 /  20  30  10  10   0
Panama City   71  80  71  82  69 /  30  30  10  10  10
Dothan        66  86  66  88  66 /  40  50  20  20  10
Albany        66  87  66  89  66 /  30  40  20  30  10
Valdosta      67  88  67  92  65 /  20  40  20  20   0
Cross City    67  87  66  90  64 /  10  30  10  10   0
Apalachicola  72  80  73  81  69 /  20  20  10  10   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-South Walton.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...BLOCK/DVD
SHORT TERM...BLOCK
LONG TERM...BLOCK
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...BLOCK
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...BLOCK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
227 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014

ALZ066-067-101915-
DALE AL-HENRY AL-
127 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR DALE AND HENRY
COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 215 PM CDT

AT 122 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR PINCKARD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN DALE AND WESTERN HENRY COUNTIES...SHOULD MONITOR
THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT (8 5 0) 9 4
2 8 8 3 3...OR CONTACT LAW ENFORCEMENT.

LAT...LON 3161 8544 3148 8520 3130 8552 3135 8561
TIME...MOT...LOC 1827Z 220DEG 22KT 3134 8551

17-GOULD