Tornado and Flood in Kansas, May 10, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
205 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND SEVERE POTENTIAL ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF MOTHERS DAY WEEKEND. FOR THIS EVENING...A
WINDOW FOR SEVERE CONVECTION LOOMS ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE DEVELOPMENTAL SURFACE WARM FRONT. THE
LATEST SPC MESO PARAMETERS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A SUPERCELL STORM
MODE WITH A SIGNAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND EVEN A TORNADO. IF
INITIATION IS EARLY ENOUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THIS COULD
IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE FLINT HILLS. AN
ISOLATED STORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE FURTHER WEST ALONG THE DRY-LINE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. OTHERWISE...THE BETTER FOCUS FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT NORTHWARD WITH THE WARM FRONT
LATER THIS EVENING AND MAINLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE STRONG
COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRY-LINE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
INTENSE SURFACE HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 90F WILL
LEAD TO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS JUST EAST OF THE FRONT...WITH
VERY IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS IN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF STORM
INITIATION...FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE PARALLEL WITH THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD TEND TO RESULT IN TRANSITION TO A LINEAR
MODE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES ON SUNDAY. THAT SAID...BESIDES
THE RISK FOR SUPERCELL TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL...A TORNADO
RISK COULD CONTINUE WITH THE TRANSITION TO A QUASI-LINEAR
MODE...ESPECIALLY PREFERENTIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN MOST CELLS
AS THEY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. THE SEVERE RISK SHOULD
DIMINISH ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND HOPEFULLY MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL EXPERIENCE MORE NUMEROUS COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.

MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS STILL ON TAP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE MEAN LONGWAVE UPPER TROF SLOWLY MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS. LINGERING PRECIP WILL MAINLY AFFECT FAR EASTERN KANSAS
ON MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER FOR ALL AREAS ON TUESDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OUTER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST WITH A
COOL AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN AS THE DEEP UPPER
LONGWAVE MIGRATES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

THE STUBBORN STRATUS OVER SE KS HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED. THERE ARE
NO CONCERNS UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN ISOLD TSRA MAY DEVELOP OVER SE
KS. THE ISOLD NATURE DICTATES KEEPING VCTS OUT OF KCNU...FOR NOW.
SCT/WDLY SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER PART OF CNTRL KS (NAMELY KSLN)
06-09Z WHERE CLOSEST TO MOIST CONVERGENT AXIS ALONG DEVELOPING E-W
ORIENTED WARM FRONT. AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE KS/NEBRASKA
BORDER THE TSRA SHOULD LIKEWISE BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BUT N OF KSLN
& KRSL. HAVE LEFT SUCH MENTION OUT OF BOTH TERMINALS BUT WOULD
REQUIRE ATTENTION ON THIS EVENING WITH 11/00Z & 11/06Z EDITIONS.
AS THE WRN PLAINS SFC CYCLONE DRIFTS E ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES
HIGH OCTANE LWR-DECK MOISTURE WILL SURGE N OVER PRIMARILY SC & SE
KS WHERE IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY VERY LATE TONIGHT/VERY EARLY SUN
MORNING.

ES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

STRONG SOUTH WINDS AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL ELEVATE THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INTO
THE VERY HIGH AND POSSIBLY EXTREME CATEGORY DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO
THE MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW
TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER IF CURRENT
EXPECTATIONS HOLD...THEN A RED FLAG WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE ISSUED WITH THE NEXT ROUTINE FORECAST UPDATE EARLY SUNDAY.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    68  91  56  64 /  20  20  60  40
HUTCHINSON      65  91  52  60 /  20  40  70  30
NEWTON          66  89  54  62 /  30  30  70  50
ELDORADO        67  88  59  64 /  30  10  70  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  90  60  67 /  20  10  60  50
RUSSELL         61  89  46  55 /  20  50  60  30
GREAT BEND      62  91  45  56 /  20  50  60  30
SALINA          63  90  52  61 /  30  50  70  40
MCPHERSON       64  90  52  60 /  30  40  70  40
COFFEYVILLE     69  88  68  72 /  20  10  40  70
CHANUTE         67  87  67  69 /  30  20  50  70
IOLA            66  87  67  69 /  40  20  60  70
PARSONS-KPPF    68  87  68  71 /  30  10  40  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
252 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-112000-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
252 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. THE
MAIN RISKS WILL BE HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDS
TO 70 MPH.

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. WHILE THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL DIMINISH...A FEW
STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER IS STILL
EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE STRONGEST STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...DAMAGING WINDS
TO 75 MPH AND TORNADOES. THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. HOWEVER STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED.

VERY HIGH TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...GENERALLY FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 14.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR AREAS EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. ACTIVATION IS MORE
LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL KANSAS...AND OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

KED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
313 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

KSZ069-092-093-102045-
BUTLER-COWLEY-SUMNER-
313 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
  NORTHWESTERN COWLEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
  NORTHEASTERN SUMNER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT

* AT 310 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR OXFORD...OR 9 MILES EAST OF
  WELLINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WINFIELD...OXFORD...UDALL AND ROCK.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORM INTENSIES AND
BECOMES SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3726 9739 3748 9718 3748 9715 3750 9715
      3758 9708 3732 9679 3712 9723
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 227DEG 23KT 3725 9722

ES