Heavy Snow and High Wind in California, December 2 to 3, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
349 AM PST TUE DEC 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
BRING SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS TO THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR WITH HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SIERRA
ABOVE 8000 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL
DWINDLE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE STORM
WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...OUR BLOCKBUSTER STORM APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED FULL
MATURITY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS MORNING ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND IT WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE THAT DELIVERS A VERY
HEALTHY DOSE OF WATER INTO THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE
NEXT 24 HRS. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE STORM EDGES CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN CA COAST
AND A POWERFUL SOUTHWESTERLY 250 MB JET LADEN WITH RICH TROPICAL
MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE CWA. THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE SIERRA
WILL GET SLAMMED WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WILL THE TEHACHAPI
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME. FOLKS RESIDING DOWNSLOPE OF MAJOR
BURN SCARS SHOULD STAY ALERT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MUD AND DEBRIS
FLOWS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CONSIDERING THE ENERGY AND TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
STORM SYSTEM...SOME LIGHTNING AND THUNDER COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY OUR
WET WEATHER TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIP WILL FALL AS HEAVY SNOW
ABOVE 8000 FEET WITH ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF
THE SIERRA AMOUNTING TO 3 FEET OR MORE BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY ALONG
WITH LOCAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. THE FAUCET WILL REMAIN WIDE OPEN
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR UNTIL THEN AND BRING A THOROUGH
SOAKING EVEN TO THE NORMALLY DRIER REGIONS SUCH AS THE KERN COUNTY
DESERT. A BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY JET ALOFT WILL SUPPORT IMPRESSIVELY
STRONG WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW THE PASSES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
SJ VLY AND OVER THE GRAPEVINE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. WIND
ADVISORIES AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS WERE LAUNCHED EARLIER THIS
MORNING FOR THESE REGIONS. WINDS HAVE ALREADY GUSTED TO 52 MPH
ALONG I-5 THROUGH THE GRAPEVINE AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN THE
ADVISORY AND WARNING AREAS WHEN THE JET MAX MOVES OVER CENTRAL CA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...THE BULK OF OUR PRECIP WILL BE OVER AS THE
STORM WEAKENS AND TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE PAC NORTHWEST.
NONETHELESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS MAY LOWER
SOMEWHAT BY THEN...DOWN TO ABOUT 7500 FEET WITH RELATIVELY MINOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SIERRA. THE MODELS FORECAST A
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL CA THROUGH THURSDAY...
DURING WHICH TIME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. THE MODELS FORECAST WEAK RIDGING TO OCCUR ALOFT
OVER THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WHICH IS SLATED TO MOVE INLAND FRIDAY EVENING WITH A
RENEWED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATON MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

A RATHER FLAT SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS
TROUGH SATURDAY AND REMAIN OVER CENTRAL CA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR NIGHT AND MORNING
FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE SJ VLY IN THE 4 TO 7 DAY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CAL INTERIOR WILL
ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD MVFR...ALONG WITH AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURING
IFR CONDITIONS TODAY. LINGERING DENSE FOG NEAR MERCED WILL DIMINISH
AS STRONGER WINDS LATER THIS MORNING. THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE
GUSTS REACHING 45 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE FROM 18Z TUESDAY TO 06Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-02       74:1907     39:1972     60:2012     27:1906
KFAT 12-03       75:1979     43:1972     54:2012     30:2004
KFAT 12-04       72:1958     40:1963     54:1901     28:1897

KBFL 12-02       87:1915     42:1972     58:2012     28:2004
KBFL 12-03       83:1979     45:1972     53:1979     27:1908
KBFL 12-04       82:1939     44:1965     54:1938     28:2004
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM PST
WEDNESDAY ABOVE 8000 FEET FOR THE CAZ096-097.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON PST WEDNESDAY CAZ089-091.

&&

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD