Drought in California, April 1 to 30, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1110 PM PDT MON MAR 31 2014

.UPDATE...
EXTENDED WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
LOWERED SNOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DROP DOWN THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AGAIN INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE STORM EXITS TO THE EAST.

&&

.UPDATED DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS SHOW THE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND MOVING
THROUGH KERN AND TULARE COUNTIES AT THIS TIME WITH WINDS INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL /HRRR/
FORECASTS THE WINDS TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGH 11Z /0400 PDT/
TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH. THEREFORE...WINDS OVER THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ARE LIKELY TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BY
MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE KERN MOUNTAINS AND MOVES INTO
THE DESERTS. PER COORDINATION WITH WFO OXNARD...HAVE EXTENDED THE
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS THROUGH 10Z /0300 PDT/
TUESDAY MORNING. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS WAS
SUPERSEDED BY THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WHICH TOOK EFFECT AT 05Z
TUESDAY /2200 PDT THIS EVENING/.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY HAVE MOSTLY DIMINISHED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. HAVE
THEREFORE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY TO EXPIRE.

SPOTTERS IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS HAVE REPORTED SNOW
FALLING AS LOW AS 3000 FEET IN THE COLD AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT.
HAVE UPDATED THE SNOW LEVEL AND WEATHER GRIDS FOR 06Z-12Z TUESDAY
/2300 PDT MONDAY-0500 PDT TUESDAY/ FOR THE LOWER SNOW LEVELS.

AT 05Z TUESDAY /2200 PDT THIS EVENING/ CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WERE AT OR NEAR THIS
MORNING/S LOW TEMPERATURES. EXPECT THAT MOST...IF NOT ALL...VALLEY
SITE MAY HAVE LATE LOWS TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS THIS
EVENING AS THE PRECIPITATION BAND MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. SPOTTER IN COARSEGOLD REPORTED A THUNDERSTORM
WITH PEA-SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND...AND THE LIGHTNING DETECTION
NETWORK GRAPHIC SHOWS NUMEROUS IN-CLOUD AND CLOUD-GROUND STRIKES.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING TO EXTEND THE AREA OF
THUNDER SOUTHWARD INTO FRESNO...KINGS AND TULARE COUNTIES...AND
CHANGED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO MATCH
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT CONTINUE JUST BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT WANT TO DROP THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS PREMATURELY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THROUGH 05Z WEDNESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN PRECIPITATION THROUGH 00Z WED. MVFR
DUE TO CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY...SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE NORTH FACING SLOPES
OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS...CONTINUING AT TIMES THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO PRECIPITATION AND CEILINGS IN THE
SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z WED OVER MUCH OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SIERRA FOOTHILLS. BLOWING DUST...WITH VISIBILITY
AT OR BELOW A MILE AT TIMES...IS POSSIBLE OVER THE KERN COUNTY
DESERT DUE TO GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...
WIND GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS OR GREATER WILL OCCUR THROUGH AND BELOW THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND IN
KERN COUNTY AS WELL AS THE SIERRA CREST THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 327 PM PDT MON MAR 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PACIFIC MOISTURE-LADEN STORM CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND EXPECTED TO DROP INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. REGIONAL DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING LIGHT PRECIP
ROLLING THROUGH STANISLAUS COUNTY AND EXTENDING INTO MERCED
COUNTY. WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL TRYING TO MOISTEN-UP...
PRECIP WILL BEGIN FALLING BEFORE 500 PM PDT. MOREOVER...WITH THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING INTO SANTA CRUZ/SANTA CLARA...THE CHANCES
OF WET WEATHER HITTING MERCED ARE VERY GOOD. AHEAD OF TODAY/S COLD
FRONT...WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY...THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. WILL EXPECT WINDS
TO WESTERLY WINDS TO REACH THE 35 TO 45 MPH SPEED THRESHOLD FOR
ADVISORY CRITERIA. WHILE STRONG WINDS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVER THE
WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...THE LACK OF RAIN OVER THE
MOJAVE DESERT WILL MAKE BLOW DUST A BIG PROBLEM FROM RIDGECREST TO
ROSAMOND AND BORON. THE HRRR MESOSCALE MODEL HAS THE WINDS
INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVEL AT AROUND 200 PM PDT AND ENDING AT
AROUND 10 PM PDT TONIGHT.

BEYOND THE WINDS IN THE SHORT TERM...RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE DISTRICT TONIGHT. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC
MODELS TIME THE ONSET OF PRECIP TO NEAR 400 PM PDT...WITH THE BULK
OF THE PRECIP PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT. CURRENT ESTIMATES
HAVE BETWEEN ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH ACROSS THE VALLEY
AND 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET.
WHILE SNOW MAY NOT STICK TO THE ROAD OVER TEJON PASS...THE
GRAPEVINE WAS INCLUDED IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SLICK
ROADS MAKING DRIVING DIFFICULT.

AFTER TONIGHT/S COLD FRONT...THE MAIN AREA OF ENERGY MOVES INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY. MODELS STILL SHOWING 500MB TEMP OF
MINUS 28 DEG-C PUSHING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEHIND TONIGHT/S
COLD FRONT. WHILE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SOME WEAK WIND
SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.

BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO TEMPORARY DRY OUT AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER
STORM. WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY SEE THE LAST OF THE LINGERING SHOWERS
WITH RIDGING EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY. WHILE CURRENT LONGER RANGE
PROGS SHOW THE THIRD STORM MOVING FURTHER NORTH...SOME OF ITS
ENERGY COULD REACH THE DISTRICT. CURRENTLY...WILL PLACE A MENTION
OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE DISTRICT AND ACROSS
THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE. WILL CONCENTRATE ON THE NEXT STORM AND
FINALIZE THIS NEXT STORM AFTERWARD.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 03-31       89:1966     50:1967     58:1986     31:1905
KFAT 04-01       90:1966     49:1982     56:1939     32:1975
KFAT 04-02       87:1985     56:1907     57:2011     34:1982

KBFL 03-31       90:2003     50:1925     60:1969     32:1908
KBFL 04-01       88:2011     54:1998     62:1900     32:1917
KBFL 04-02       90:1985     57:1981     60:2002     35:1999

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO THE KERN COUNTY LINE /CAZ096-097/.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS /CAZ095/.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS
/CAZ098-099/.

&&

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...SANGER
PREV DISCUSSION...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
705 PM PDT MON MAR 31 2014

CAZ090-092>094-011730-
EAST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-SOUTHEASTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
MARIPOSA MADERA AND FRESNO COUNTY FOOTHILLS-
TULARE COUNTY FOOTHILLS-
1027 AM PDT MON MAR 31 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS.

...THUNDERSTORMS ON TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. EXPECT LOCALLY BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

* THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
  ON TUESDAY. EXPECT LOCALLY BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS
  AND SMALL HAIL.

* STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE NEWS
  SOURCE...FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT OR
UNUSUAL CONDITIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

CAZ089-091-011730-
WEST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-SOUTHWESTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
705 PM PDT MON MAR 31 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY.

WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PDT
THIS EVENING.

...THUNDERSTORMS ON TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

UPGRADED TO WIND ADVISORY. PLEASE SEE SFONPWHNX FOR DETAILS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. EXPECT LOCALLY BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

* THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
  ON TUESDAY. EXPECT LOCALLY BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS
  AND SMALL HAIL.

* STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE NEWS
  SOURCE...FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT OR
UNUSUAL CONDITIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD