Flash Flooding and Flood in Missouri, April 1 to 3, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1155 AM CDT Tue Apr 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2014

A cold front was in the process of moving southeast across
south-central Missouri during the predawn period. This front will
fold over and come to a screeching halt across northern Arkansas
this morning as height falls begin to overspread the central
Rockies. This front will then slowly return north as a warm front
today with front expected to be somewhere in a Joplin to Buffalo to
Rolla corridor by late this afternoon. Short range models indicate
some isolated to scattered shower/thunderstorm potential along the
returning front as a low level jet impinges from the south. We went
on the warm side with temperatures today...especially south of the
front with highs pushing 70 degrees across far southern Missouri.

That front will then continue its northward progress overnight as a
deep trough overspreads the Continental Divide. As this happens, a
low level jet stream will re-focus and strengthen across the
southern Plains. Confidence is high that an area of showers and
thunderstorms will develop across eastern Kansas. The southern
extent of this activity will be highly dependent on the position
of the warm front...but current indications are that the southern
extent of this activity may clip western portions of the Highway
54 corridor. MUCAPEs in the 1000-1500 J/kg range and effective
deep layer shear around 30 knots will support a low-end severe
hail threat. Temperatures tonight will not fall off all that much
south of that warm front. We again went on the warm side of
guidance for lows.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2014

From Wednesday onward...the forecast will become highly dependent on
smaller scale features which are difficult to resolve at this point.
Thus, there is high bust potential for both precipitation chances
and temperatures. With that being said, our first concern for
Wednesday will be what becomes of the overnight cluster of showers
and thunderstorms. Looking at wind fields (Corfidi vectors), the
main cluster should generally track east and may continue to clip
portions of central Missouri. Some models do want to break some
morning elevated convection out further south across the eastern
Ozarks as the low level jet veers and we see a brief period of
isentropic upglide/850 mb theta-e advection push across the Highway
65 corridor.

Meanwhile, the overall synoptic regime will support an increasingly
favorable setup for an elevated mixed layer spreading over the
Ozarks. This alone would argue for the atmosphere becoming capped to
surface based convection on Wednesday. Interestingly, the NAM and
even a few global models are hinting at weak short wave energy
pushing northeast out of northern Texas and potential serving as a
triggering mechanism. At this time, this looks like a long shot. We
will also have to watch for surface based convection developing
along the front from northeastern Kansas back down into south-
central Kansas Wednesday afternoon. Some of this could move off
the front and clip portions of extreme southeastern Kansas and
west-central Missouri Wednesday evening. Probably the more
favorable scenario will be the development of additional
nocturnal convection Wednesday night as a low level jet again
develops and veers into our general vicinity. Confidence on where
this convection may develop remains low and will be highly
dependent on low level jet placement and orientation. If the NAM
is correct, portions of extreme southeastern Kansas and west-
central Missouri (and points north) will see this activity. If the
global models are correct, much of the area will see showers and
thunderstorms later Wednesday night.

At this time, it appears that our best shot at strong/severe storms
will be on Thursday/Thursday evening. A cold front will likely
overtake the dry line as strong upper level energy begins to pivot
across the Plains Thursday morning. The general model consensus is
also to track a surface low from northeastern Oklahoma into northern
Missouri. This would argue for an initially slower progression of
the front across the area for much of Thursday. This would open
the door for supercell potential. As that upper level energy then
continues to pivot, that would support an accelerating front and
perhaps a transition to a QLCS as we get into late Thursday
afternoon and Thursday evening. Deep layer and low level shear would
also be on the increase by that time...perhaps supporting an
increased severe storm threat.

This system will then move out of the region later Thursday night
with cooler temperatures overspreading the area. Global models then
indicate more upper level energy traversing the region early next
week. Moisture availability does not look all that great, thus we
have kept PoPs at or below 30 percent.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2014

Surface front will begin to lift north as a warm front and through
the CWA with winds veering to the east, southeast and eventually
south by Wednesday morning. Thunderstorms will be possible along
and north of the warm front, mainly late tonight which will mostly
be north of the TAF sites although will throw in prob 30 group for
JLN/SGF. Lower ceilings will move in south of the warm front with
MVFR and eventually IFR conditions expected overnight into
Wednesday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Lindenberg

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
127 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-021830-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
127 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
  ALONG A LINE AND PUSH NORTH AND AFFECT LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG
  AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
  EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY STORMS WILL BE
  SCATTERED LIGHTNING STRIKES AND SMALL HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY IS
  EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING.

  A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS THEN EXPECTED TO
  DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS
  THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST INTO PORTIONS OF EXTREME
  SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. A FEW OF THESE
  STORMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS... GENERALLY
  ALONG AND NORTH OF A NEOSHO TO VICHY MISSOURI LINE LATE TONIGHT.
  FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
  THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY THEN PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
  MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
  STORMS WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...FREQUENT
  LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY THEN DEVELOP FROM
  WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM
  NORTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THERE IS
  THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO TRACK INTO
  EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND FAR WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI
  WEDNESDAY EVENING. IF THIS OCCURS...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
  HALF DOLLARS...WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...AND FREQUENT
  LIGHTNING WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.

  INDICATIONS ARE THAT ANOTHER CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY
  THEN DEVELOP ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
  FROM LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
  TIME...THERE REMAINS HIGH UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THIS
  CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK. LOCATIONS
  THAT ARE IMPACTED BY THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SEE A
  RISK FOR HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...FREQUENT
  LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

  A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN TRACK FROM NORTHERN
  OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN OR CENTRAL MISSOURI ON THURSDAY.
  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON
  THURSDAY ALONG A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS LOW.
  INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED THREAT
  FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE
  THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL THEN END FROM WEST TO EAST
  FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS THE COLD
  FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE REGION.

  IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
  INTO THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY NON THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
  AROUND 30 MPH CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

WFO SGF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
155 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014

MOZ088-093-094-011930-
JASPER MO-NEWTON MO-LAWRENCE MO-
155 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN NEWTON...NORTHERN
LAWRENCE AND SOUTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

AT 154 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF REEDS...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF CARTHAGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  REEDS AND SARCOXIE BY 200 PM CDT.
  LA RUSSELL AND 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AVILLA BY 205 PM CDT.
  STOTTS CITY AND 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RED OAK BY 215 PM CDT.
  MILLER AND 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF MOUNT VERNON BY 225 PM CDT.

INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 18 AND 53 WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN NEWTON...NORTHERN LAWRENCE AND SOUTHEASTERN
JASPER COUNTIES...INCLUDING SARCOXIE AND MILLER...SHOULD MONITOR THE
WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3696 9425 3712 9434 3729 9391 3728 9375
      3713 9367
TIME...MOT...LOC 1855Z 247DEG 35KT 3708 9419

LINDENBERG