Winter Storm and Winter Weather in Arkansas, March 2 to 3, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1215 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR CEILING WITH AREAS OF MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH AND REACH NORTHERN
AR AROUND MIDNIGHT AND SWITCH WINDS TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO 5
TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS. ALSO LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL BE SEEN.
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AND ON
SUNDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT  DROPS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS AR. THE
FRONT WILL REACH CENTRAL AR SUNDAY MORNING...THEN TO SOUTHERN AR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN WITH PATCHY FOG WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH OVERALL MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AREAS OF IFR WILL
ALSO BE SEEN. ON SUNDAY...RAIN AND SHOWERS...WILL DEVELOP IN THE
MORNING AND CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AR. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO FALL AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND
CHANGE RAIN OVER TO FZRA AND SLEET ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN AR SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN PARTS OF CENTRAL AR SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EVENING. A
TRANSITION TO WINTERY PRECIPITTION WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN AR
SUNDAY EVENING. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 917 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014/

.UPDATE...
COMPLEX WINTER WEATHER SCENARIO SETTING UP. NEW GUIDANCE IS COMING
IN...AND 00Z NAM RUN IS COMING IN COLDER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOUT 2 DEGREES TOO WARM ACROSS
MISSOURI...BUT INITIALIZED BETTER ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT...AND SWITCH TO FREEZING RAIN AT HARRISON AN
HOUR OR TWO BEFORE SUNRISE. LITTLE ROCK WILL HAVE RAIN FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY BEFORE FREEZING RAIN DEVELOPS AROUND 3 PM. WITH GUIDANCE
TRENDING COLDER FASTER...THIS WILL SET UP A SLEET SCENARIO...AND
MAY LAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY IF A CONVECTIVE BAND SETS
UP JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT.

WITH THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM...THUNDER MAY BE HEARD AREA WIDE SUNDAY.
WHILE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE SOUTH...THE MUCH BIGGER STORY IS THE WINTER WEATHER.

CURRENT FORECAST MATCHES THIS THINKING...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
CHANGING ANY ICE/SLEET AMOUNTS UNTIL MORE GUIDANCE COMES IN.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
OVERALL THINKING HAS NOT REALLY CHANGED OTHER THAN TO UPGRADE THE
WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING AND TO EXPAND THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH. SHORT
TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER EVENT AND THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THEM ARE NOT GLARING
ENOUGH TO FAVOR ONE VERSUS ANOTHER AND A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS WILL BE
UTILIZED. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE VERSUS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS IS THE
SYSTEM APPEARS TO SPEEDING UP JUST A BIT.

LATEST MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWS THE SITUATION QUITE CLEARLY AT
THIS TIME. BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES
GIVES WAY TO A STRONG CUT OFF LOW NOW JUST MAKING ITS WAY ONTO THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND FINALLY BEING SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SHEAR OUT INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT QUICKLY
MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING.

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WHERE IT WILL REMAIN BASICALLY IN PLACE
UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST SYSTEM ARRIVES. MEANWHILE A
MASSIVE DOME OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS
CLOSE AS SOUTHERN IOWA. THIS ARCTIC HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY KICK KICK
THE FRONT OUT WITH MUCH COLDER AIR SPILLING BACK INTO THE REGION.

AS THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST APPROACHES...THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME WIDE OPEN WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE
STATE. MODELS ARE INDICATING PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES
FOR PARTS OF THE STATE. LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY BE OCCURRING OVER THE
NORTH COME SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN AREA QUICKLY EXPANDING AND
BECOMING MUCH HEAVIER AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE STALLED OUT
BOUNDARY. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE SPILLING INTO THE NORTH EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH A FAIRLY RAPID TRANSITION TO WINTER WEATHER IN THE
FORM OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. THIS TRANSITION WILL SLOWLY WORK
SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY REACHING THE LITTLE ROCK METRO BY LATE
AFTERNOON. BY THE TIME THE TRANSITION REACHES THE SOUTH...MOISTURE
WILL NOT BE AS IMPRESSIVE AND AN ADVISORY WILL DO AT THIS POINT.

MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTH. A CORRIDOR IN EASTERN ARKANSAS WILL BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO HEAVY ICING...WITH UPWARDS OF THREE QUARTERS OF AN
OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THERMAL STRUCTURE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE COMING BACK WITH A MORE SLEET LIKE APPEARANCE
SO A WINTER STORM WARNING WAS FAVORED VERSUS AN ICE STORM WARNING IN
THESE AREAS. PRECIPITATION COULD END AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTH BUT DID LOWER THE TOTAL AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT.

MODELS ALSO SHOWING A DRY SLOT COMING INTO THE WEST AND CENTRAL BY
MIDNIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION INTENSITY LIKELY DIMINISHING AFTER THAT.
ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE DONE BY MONDAY MORNING. VERY COLD AIR WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE MELTING
EXPECTED IN SPITE OF THE INCREASING MARCH SUN ANGLE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ZONAL FLOW WILL BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD TUESDAY OVER ARKANSAS.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS SET UP WILL BRING
AN UPPER TROUGH THROUGH ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. THURSDAY AND SPREADS EAST
FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS
INTO ARKANSAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE AFFECTING
ARKANSAS TUESDAY. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF TEXAS AND BRING
SMALL RAIN CHANCES TO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND LIGHT
SNOW OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH. THE LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTH...WITH RAIN
ELSEWHERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE STATE. WILL BRING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THE
PASSING OF A SHORT WAVE ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL TO BEGIN THE PERIOD BUT WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
ARKANSAS-CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-PERRY-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-IZARD-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-LINCOLN-
MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PIKE-POLK.

&&

58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1215 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-021115-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1215 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH INTO ARKANSAS AND BRING MUCH
COLDER AIR TO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. AROUND SUNRISE...THE LIGHT RAIN OVER NORTHERN
ARKANSAS MAY MIX WITH OR BECOME FREEZING RAIN...ESPECIALLY THOSE
AREAS NEAR THE MISSOURI STATE LINE...AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ARKANSAS ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...WITH ALL AREAS AFFECTED BY SUNDAY EVENING. IN
GENERAL...PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN...THEN CHANGEOVER TO
FREEZING RAIN. ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 40 AND HIGHWAY 167 CORRIDORS
EAST OF LITTLE ROCK...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN TO
LAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS SUNDAY EVENING.

AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE STATE...PRECIPITATION
WILL CHANGEOVER TO SLEET. THE SLEET HAS THE POTENTIAL TO LAST FOR
SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.
NORTHERN ARKANSAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MISSOURI BORDER...WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL OF RECEIVING TWO TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
STATE...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...WITH JUST A DUSTING
ON TOP OF THE OTHER WINTER PRECIPITATION.

IN ADDITION TO THE WINTER WEATHER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY IN AREAS SOUTH OF
LITTLE ROCK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER...ANY WINTER WEATHER
REPORTS WILL BE APPRECIATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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