Drought in Arizona, November 1 to 30, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
940 PM MST FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLDEST LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED ISOLATED 30-45 DBZ ECHOES JUST
NE OF SAN CARLOS RESERVOIR AT 0435Z. THE REST OF SE AZ WAS VOID OF
PRECIP ECHOES AT THIS TIME. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT
CLOUDS WERE GENERALLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS ERN SECTIONS.
MEANWHILE...CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED FROM TUCSON
WWD INTO WRN PIMA COUNTY. CIRRIFORM CLOUDS JUST WEST OF THIS
FORECAST AREA WILL INCREASE ACROSS WRN SECTIONS DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REDUCE THE PROSPECT OF SHOWERS
THE REST OF TONIGHT. HAVE CONFINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
OCCUR FROM THE VICINITY OF SAFFORD NEWD ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR ELSEWHERE THE REST OF TONIGHT.
BASED ON THE 01/00Z NAM/GFS...HAVE INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY SAT MORNING. A COOLING TREND WILL
BEGIN SAT ALONG WITH GUSTY GENERALLY SWLY WINDS AS A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH ADJACENT THE WEST COAST MOVES INTO THE SWRN CONUS.

PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/06Z.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEST OF KTUS SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES THE REST OF TONIGHT...THEN FEW-BKN CLOUDS
AT 5-10K FT AGL AND SCT-OVC CLOUDS ABOVE 15K FT AGL FROM LATE
SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SURFACE WIND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE GENERALLY SWLY 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS THE REST OF TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE
AREA. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
TUCSON. EXPECT SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A STRONG
WEST COAST TROUGH SATURDAY. STRONGEST ENERGY AND BEST MOISTURE
LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS GETS
HERE...HOWEVER MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT BRINGING A
DECENT SECONDARY IMPULSE THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARIZONA
SUNDAY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS ARIZONA SUNDAY AS
WELL...SAVING OUR PART OF THE STATE FOR LAST WITH MUCH OF OUR CWA
SPENDS MOST OF SUNDAY STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS WOULD CREATE
THE UNUSUAL SITUATION OF PLACES LIKE DOUGLAS ENDING UP WARMER THAN
YUMA AND PHOENIX.

BEST ENHANCED GRADIENT FOR OUR AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS POSSIBLE FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS COMING TOGETHER FOR PHOENIX AND FLAGSTAFF
OFFICE AREAS...BUT WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WELL...MAINLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING JUST AHEAD OF AND WITH THE
FRONT. THIS WILL PROBABLY INCLUDE THE FIRST SNOWFALL IN SOME HIGH
MOUNTAIN ZONES WITH 2 INCHES OR SO CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR HANNAGAN
MEADOW IN NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
EVENING AS SNOW LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE 8000 FEET.

MUCH COOLER AIR SETTLING ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BY MONDAY
WITH THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE YEAR SO FAR EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. COLDEST EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD SEE THE FIRST FREEZE
OF THE SEASON...INCLUDING AREAS AROUND WILLCOX AND SULPHUR SPRINGS
VALLEY AS WELL AS A FEW OTHER SPOTS.

ECMWF CLINGING STUBBORNLY TO A CUT OFF SAGGING BACK INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF US TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WRAPPING THE EDGE OF
SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTH AS IT DOES SO. THIS IS NO
LONGER QUITE THE OUTLIER IT WAS BEFORE WITH AN INCREASING NUMBER OF
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTING SOMETHING LIKE THIS AS WELL AS
SOMETHING SIMILAR FROM THE NEW CMC. GFS IS EVEN A TAD SLOWER AND
DEEPER THAN IT WAS BEFORE. WE ARE GOING TO MASSAGE A LITTLE MORE OF
THE 12Z ECMWF INTO OUR FORECAST THAN WE DID BEFORE...KEEPING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON AND
SLOWING THE REBOUND WARMING TREND WITH THE IDEA THAT THE NEW RIDGE
MAY BE A TAD DIRTIER THAN WE WERE PREVIOUSLY THINKING FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...WARMEST LOW FOR THE DATE AT TUCSON THIS MORNING AT
64...BEATING THE OLD RECORD OF 62 FROM 1987. THE LOW OF 55 AT
DOUGLAS TIES FOR WARMEST.

RECENT HALLOWEENS HAVE BEEN QUITE WARM ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. FOR
TUCSON...FROM 1894 TO 2007...THERE WERE ONLY TWO HALLOWEENS /1916
AND 1999/ WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. HOWEVER...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE OF 91 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON MAKES TODAY THE THIRD
OCCURRENCE IN THE PAST SEVEN YEARS /2008 AND 2011/ WITH HALLOWEEN
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

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FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER