Precipitation was below normal for most locations across north Texas during the month of November, leading to a continuation of the persistent drought conditions across the region.
Every event with a place to put it; 24 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FWD wrote it up.
Precipitation was below normal for most locations across north Texas during the month of November, leading to a continuation of the persistent drought conditions across the region.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 31, 10:42 PM CST, 1 hour 18 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1142 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014 .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 7 KNOTS AT 0430Z WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST BY 15Z SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. EXPECT ONLY SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THEREAFTER. 58 && .UPDATE... WE/VE ADDED AREAS OF FROST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWA AND PATCHY FROST OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 9 AM ON SATURDAY. ONCE TEMPS FALL BELOW 38 DEGREES LATER TONIGHT AND WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 5 MPH...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL COMMENCE. IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR BEFORE DAYBREAK...THEN EXPOSED SURFACES SHOULD BE ABLE TO COLLECT FROST. WHERE RAIN FELL ON THURSDAY...THE FROST COULD BE HEAVIER. THE REST OF THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY PLEASANT WITH TEMPS TURNING WARMER ON SUNDAY. NEXT WEEKS STORM SYSTEM LOOKS VERY PROMISING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA AND A STRONG POSITIVE TILTED UPPER TROUGH...POSSIBLY A CLOSED UPPER LOW PER THE ECMWF...TRACKS ACROSS THE STATE. THE RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DUMP 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE CWA BEFORE ENDING AND SHOULD HELP IMPROVE SOME LAKE AND RESERVOIRS LEVELS. 75 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/ ...HEADLINES...DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN A GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAIN BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK... SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS SOLIDLY IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER OVER THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THIS RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO STAY IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE ONLY REAL WEATHER OF POTENTIAL IMPACT THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS EVENING WILL BE JACKET WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AREA WIDE BY 9PM AND TEMPS CONTINUING TO PLUMMET OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR EVERYWHERE EXCEPT EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT AS TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT. FOR THE METROPLEX AND AREAS SOUTH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY DRY TONIGHT AND IN TAKING A LOOK AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS THE LOWEST 100MB THERE IS A GOOD 5-15 DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT SO THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR FROST TO FORM. HOWEVER SOME VERY PATCHY FROST COULD BE POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS WHERE MOISTURE COULD POOL UP. MEDIUM RANGE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BY LATE SUNDAY THIS UPPER LOW WILL SPLIT OFF INTO TWO PIECES OF ENERGY...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOOTS NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE NORTHERN TROUGH WILL SPAWN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SOUTHERN CANADA BY MONDAY WITH A TRAILING SURFACE FRONT DRAPED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE SOUTHERN TROUGH WILL BECOME ELONGATED AND POSITIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO BE TAPPED FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT OVER THE PLAINS AND ALSO TAP INTO MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENT TROPICAL STORM VANCE WHICH WILL BE APPROACHING NORTHERN MEXICO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION GULF MOISTURE WILL BE FLOWING INTO NORTH TEXAS OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND ON THE BACK SIDE OF A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. LENDING FURTHER EVIDENCE TO THE MOIST AIR MASS THAT IS EXPECTED IS THE FACT THAT THE GFS IS SHOWING PWATS IN THE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE FOR TUESDAY. THIS IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS HIGHER THAN THE NORMAL PWATS WE SEE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IF YOU ADD ALL OF THIS UP THIS IS LEADING US TO A VERY FAVORABLE SET UP FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER NORTH TEXAS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. TIMING AND IMPACTS OF THE RAIN NEXT WEEK...RAIN CHANCES ARE INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING ON MONDAY WITH 20 TO 30 POPS MONDAY MORNING FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INCREASING TO 40 TO 60 POPS BY LATE MONDAY. THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AREA WIDE IS TUESDAY WHERE WE HAVE 60 TO 80 POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. THIS IS A VERY HIGH POP FOR A DAY 5 EVENT WHICH REFLECTS THE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE HAVE THAT WE ARE GOING TO GET RAIN. THE BIG CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST COMES AFTER TUESDAY WHERE THE MODELS DIVERGE. 12Z OPERATIONAL HAS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSING OFF OVER EAST TEXAS BY THURSDAY AND THEN ADVANCING EASTWARD BY FRIDAY. THIS WOULD GIVE US CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY WITH LINGERING RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS A MUCH DIFFERENT SOLUTION AS IT CLOSES OFF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND MERGES IT WITH THE REMNANTS OF VANCE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF THEN HAS THIS STORM SYSTEM TAKING A VERY SLOW TREK EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS OVER A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD FINALLY CLEARING THE LONE STAR STATE BY SATURDAY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN SEVERAL DAYS OF RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF TEXAS INCLUDING THE LOCAL AREA. UNFORTUNATELY THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE NOT MUCH HELP AS ABOUT HALF OF THEM HAVE THE GFS OPERATIONAL SOLUTION AND HALF HAVE THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL SOLUTION. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NOT MUCH CERTAINTY IN THE SOLUTION BEYOND TUESDAY THE IMPACTS ARE DIFFICULT TO ASSESS AT THIS TIME. AT THE VERY LEAST IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH SO BENEFICIAL DROUGHT RELIEF WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE IS SHOWING A 4O TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE THAT OUR AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST 1 INCH OF RAIN IN THE MONDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THIS IS VERY PROMISING TO SAY THE LEAST. POTENTIAL FLOODING IMPACTS ARE DIFFICULT TO ASSESS AT THIS TIME BUT GIVEN THE RICH MOISTURE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING TO OCCUR MOST LIKELY IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. IF THE RAIN LINGERS INTO THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD AS THE ECMWF SOLUTION THAT COULD LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING IMPACTS...BUT ALSO ADDITIONAL DROUGHT RELIEF. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE HAVE A GOOD CHANCE FOR AREA WIDE BENEFICIAL RAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE FORECAST IN THE DAYS TO COME TO ASSESS ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL IMPACTS. HOETH && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 36 61 43 70 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 WACO, TX 35 65 41 73 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 PARIS, TX 30 57 36 66 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 DENTON, TX 31 61 41 69 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 MCKINNEY, TX 32 60 39 69 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 DALLAS, TX 36 61 43 70 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 TERRELL, TX 34 61 39 69 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 CORSICANA, TX 35 62 40 72 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 TEMPLE, TX 37 64 41 73 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 MINERAL WELLS, TX 32 65 42 69 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ091>095- 100>107. && 58/75
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 306 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-011230- MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN- HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS- ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL- JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO- FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE- LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON- 306 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM GRAHAM TO SULPHUR SPRINGS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS FROM MONDAY INTO THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT AT THIS TIME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 721 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014 TXZ115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-010900- STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN- VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-JOHNSON-ELLIS- HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-FREESTONE- ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-LEON- MILAM-ROBERTSON- 721 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014 ...PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT... WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...DECREASING WINDS AND DRIER AIR WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION...PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE SATURDAY. YOU MAY WANT TO COVER YOUR SENSITIVE PLANTS/VEGETATION TO PROTECT THEM FROM THE PATCHY FROST.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
24 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
D2/Severe drought conditions covered Montague County for all of November, 2014.
D2/Severe drought conditions were in place county-wide at the beginning of the month. Conditions were upgraded to Moderate/D1 across the northern half of the county by week two of November due to nearly 2 inches of rain which fell early in the month.
Severe/D2 drought conditions were in place county-wide at the beginning of the month. Conditions were upgraded to Moderate/D1 by week two across all but the southern third of the county due to nearly an inch and a half of rain which fell during the first week of the month.
Severe/D2 drought conditions were in place across Hopkins County for all of November 2014.
Young County spent all of November with Exceptional/D4 drought conditions over the southeastern quarter of the county and Extreme/D3 across the rest of the county.
Extreme/D3 drought conditions covered Jack County for all of November 2014.
Wise County experienced Severe/D2 conditions over the northern third of the county, while Extreme/D3 conditions persisted across the rest of the county for all of November, 2014.
Denton County experienced Severe/D2 conditions over the northern third of the county, while Extreme/D3 conditions persisted across the rest of the county for all of November, 2014.
Collin County experienced Extreme/D3 drought conditions over the southwestern quadrant of the county, while Severe/D2 conditions covered the rest of the county for all of November, 2014.
Stephens County began November with Exceptional/D4 drought conditions over the eastern two-thirds of the county, and Extreme/D3 across the rest. Conditions improved from west to east as some beneficial rainfall affected parts of the area. By the end of the month, D4 conditions affected only the northwestern corner of the county, D3 across central portions of the county and Severe/D2 conditions over the southwest corner.
Exceptional/D4 drought conditions over all of Palo Pinto County for most of the month improved to Extreme/D3 across the southern half of the county during the last week of November.
Exceptional/D4 drought conditions covered all but the far northern portions of Parker County, where Extreme/D3 conditions resided, during November 2014.
Exceptional/D4 drought conditions covered all but the far northern portions of Tarrant County, where Extreme/D3 conditions resided, during November 2014.
Dallas County spent all of November, 2014 with Exceptional/D4 conditions over the far western portions of the county, Extreme/D3 across central portions, and Severe/D2 across the eastern reaches of the county.
Severe/D2 drought conditions covered Rockwall County for all of November, 2014.
Eastland County experienced Extreme/D3 drought conditions over the eastern part of the county, Severe/D2 across the central portions and Moderate/D1 over the western reaches of the county during November of 2014.
Extreme/D3 drought conditions covered Erath County for all of November 2014, with the exception of the far northern reaches, where Exceptional/D4 conditions resided.
Severe/D2 drought conditions in place county-wide at the beginning of November improved to Moderate/D1 across the southern half of the county during the second week of the month. The county remained split between Severe/D2 conditions across the northern half and Moderate/D1 across the southern half for the rest of the month.
Exceptional/D4 drought conditions covered Hood County for all of November, 2014.
Extreme/D3 drought conditions covered Somervell County for all of November, 2014.
Extreme/D3 drought conditions existed across the majority of Johnson County for all of November 2014. The exceptions were the far norther sections, where Exceptional/D4 conditions resided, and the far southern locations where Severe/D2 conditions existed.
Severe/D2 drought conditions covered all of Ellis County during November, 2014.
Bosque County was split between Severe/D2 drought conditions across the northern two-thirds of the county and Moderate/D1 across the southern third of the county during November, 2014.
Hill County was split between Severe/D2 drought conditions across the northern two-thirds of the county and Moderate/D1 across the southern third of the county during November, 2014.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2014Every state in 2014This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, November 2014
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 547965, 547966, 547967, 547969, 547970, 547971, 547972, 547973, 547974, 547975, 547976, 547977, 547978, 547979, 547980, 547981, 547982, 547983, 547984, 547985, 547986, 547987, 547988, 547989.