Name: Drought in Arizona, March 1 to 31, 2014
Start: 2014-03-01T00:00
End: 2014-03-31T23:59
Location: Arizona

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 6 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 6

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS TWC wrote it up.

Extreme drought conditions continued in parts of southeast Arizona through March. Other than one day of significant precipitation over parts of the drought area on March 1st, the month was generally dry.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 28, 8:45 PM MST, 3 hours 15 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 28, 8:45 PM MST, 3 hours 15 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
845 PM MST FRI FEB 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG...WET AND COOLER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THIS WEEKEND. STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 12 TO 17
DEGREES COOLER BY SUNDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND
MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...OVERALL FORECAST PACKAGE ON SOLID FOOTING. LONG AND
DEEP FETCH OF MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT 36-40 HOURS WITH SECONDARY
REINFORCING ENERGY PHASING IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING SUSTAINING THE PRECIP.

INITIALLY WE WILL RELY ON STRONG UPSLOPE AS WE MOISTEN UP OVER THE
NEXT 12-16 HOURS. PROBABLY WON'T SEE SIGNIFICANT ECHOS AROUND TUCSON
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOCUS ON BEST PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
AFTER 9 OR 10 AM SATURDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHARPENS THINGS
UP. 00Z KTWC SOUNDING CAME IN AT .61IN PRECIPITABLE WATER AND THAT
VALUES IS PROBABLY ALREADY MORE LIKE .68 AS PER CURRENT SATELLITE
ESTIMATES. 1.2 INCH VALUES BREACHING NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA
PENINSULA INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WHICH IS ABOUT 200 PERCENT OF
CLIMO. WE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SLOW FIRST PERIOD TRENDS DOWN A BIT
BUT SPOTTY UPSLOPE SHOWERS STARTING SHOW THEMSELVES.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT SNOW LEVELS. WE'RE FAIRLY CONFIDENT
ABOUT SIGNIFICANT SNOW ABOVE 8000 FEET BUT STILL NOT SURE HOW
QUICKLY RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW AT 7000 FEET LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE GRADUALLY SEWD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK SAT. FAR SERN COCHISE COUNTY MAY
REMAIN DRY THRU EARLY SAT. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES
EWD ACROSS SE AZ SAT AS AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP TO OCCUR. THE PERIOD FOR
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO OCCUR APPEARS TO BE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SAT. VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN TAPER
FROM WEST TO EAST SUN.

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IS IN EFFECT
FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM MST SUNDAY ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES...AND THE GALIURO/PINALENO
MOUNTAINS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM
SATURDAY TO 10 AM MST SUNDAY ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR THE CATALINA/RINCON
MOUNTAINS. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN THESE ZONES ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM 7 INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN MOST MOUNTAINS TO 22 INCHES
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE NEAR 8000-8500 FEET
MIDDAY SAT THEN LOWER TO AROUND 6500 FEET SUN MORNING. PLEASE REFER
TO WMO HEADER WWUS45 KTWC /AWIPS PRODUCT PHXWSWTWC/ FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAIL.

A WIND ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM MST SATURDAY
FOR SOUTHERN COCHISE COUNTY. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS NEAR DOUGLAS.
WINDS IN THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE WIND SPEEDS OVER
35 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH. PLEASE REFER TO WMO HEADER WWUS75
KTWC /AWIPS PRODUCT PHXNPWTWC/ FOR ADDITIONAL DETAIL.

THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL END BY SUN EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SUN EVENING. STORM TOTAL LIQUID
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.50"-1.25". DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL MON-FRI UNDER WLY/NWLY FLOW ALOFT.

HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGS F COOLER VERSUS TEMPS
ACHIEVED THIS AFTERNOON...THEN ANOTHER 2-6 DEGS F OR SO OF COOLING
IS ON TAP SUN. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR MON-THUR.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/03Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP NORTH TO WEST OF KTUS TONIGHT...THEN
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
SATURDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ESPECIALLY NEAR HIGHER
TERRAIN DUE TO CLOUDS/PRECIP. ISOLATED -TSRA WILL ALSO OCCUR
SATURDAY. SURFACE WIND EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE WLY/SWLY 12-18 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND LATE SATURDAY MORNING THRU SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE SWLY 12-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KTS. THE
STRONGEST WIND WILL BE ACROSS COCHISE COUNTY SE OF KTUS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW THIS WEEKEND. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR
SATURDAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR DUE TO THE AMPLE
MOISTURE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AREA WIDE STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND.

&&

.CLIMATE...BOTH FEBRUARY AND WINTER CLIMATE REPORTS HAVE BEEN POSTED
TO THE WFO TUCSON WEBSITE. FEBRUARY HEADLINES INCLUDE 2ND WARMEST
AND 11TH DRIEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD. WINTER HEADLINES INCLUDE WARMEST
ON RECORD AND 15TH DRIEST. PLEASE SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TWC FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM MST SUNDAY FOR
    AZZ510-511 ABOVE 7000 FEET.

    WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM MST SUNDAY
    FOR AZZ514 ABOVE 7000 FEET.

    WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM MST SATURDAY FOR AZZ507-508-
    512-513.

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/MEADOWS/FRANCIS

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

6 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Southeast Pinal County

When: March 1, 12:00 AM MST to March 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where: Southeast Pinal County forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 32.904, -111.345 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Extreme drought (D3) category persisted in eastern Pinal, western Graham, extreme northeastern Pima and much of northern Cochise counties through March. One precipitation event brought up to 150% of normal monthly precipitation in one day over parts of southern Graham and northern Cochise counties on March 1st, but the remainder of the month was dry. Soil moisture conditions were generally less than 30 percent of normal and San Carlos Reservoir was at less than 11 percent of capacity. Fuel moisture levels remained very low causing wildfire concerns.

Drought, Upper San Pedro River Valley

When: March 1, 12:00 AM MST to March 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where: Upper San Pedro River Valley forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 32.109, -110.569 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Extreme drought (D3) category persisted in eastern Pinal, western Graham, extreme northeastern Pima and much of northern Cochise counties through March. One precipitation event brought up to 150% of normal monthly precipitation in one day over parts of southern Graham and northern Cochise counties on March 1st, but the remainder of the month was dry. Soil moisture conditions were generally less than 30 percent of normal and San Carlos Reservoir was at less than 11 percent of capacity. Fuel moisture levels remained very low causing wildfire concerns.

Drought, Eastern Cochise County Below 5000 Feet

When: March 1, 12:00 AM MST to March 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where: Eastern Cochise County Below 5000 Feet forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 31.880, -109.751 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Extreme drought (D3) category persisted in eastern Pinal, western Graham, extreme northeastern Pima and much of northern Cochise counties through March. One precipitation event brought up to 150% of normal monthly precipitation in one day over parts of southern Graham and northern Cochise counties on March 1st, but the remainder of the month was dry. Soil moisture conditions were generally less than 30 percent of normal and San Carlos Reservoir was at less than 11 percent of capacity. Fuel moisture levels remained very low causing wildfire concerns.

Drought, Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys

When: March 1, 12:00 AM MST to March 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where: Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 33.074, -109.563 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Extreme drought (D3) category persisted in eastern Pinal, western Graham, extreme northeastern Pima and much of northern Cochise counties through March. One precipitation event brought up to 150% of monthly normal precipitation in one day over parts of southern Graham and northern Cochise counties on March 1st, but the remainder of the month was dry. Soil moisture conditions were generally less than 30 percent of normal and San Carlos Reservoir was at less than 11 percent of capacity. Fuel moisture levels remained very low causing wildfire concerns.

Drought, Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains

When: March 1, 12:00 AM MST to March 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where: Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 32.572, -110.328 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Extreme drought (D3) category persisted in eastern Pinal, western Graham, extreme northeastern Pima and much of northern Cochise counties through March. One precipitation event brought up to 150% of normal monthly precipitation in one day over parts of southern Graham and northern Cochise counties on March 1st, but the remainder of the month was dry. Soil moisture conditions were generally less than 30 percent of normal and San Carlos Reservoir was at less than 11 percent of capacity. Fuel moisture levels remained very low causing wildfire concerns.

Drought, Chiricahua Mountains

When: March 1, 12:00 AM MST to March 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where: Chiricahua Mountains forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 31.880, -109.751 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Extreme drought (D3) category persisted in eastern Pinal, western Graham, extreme northeastern Pima and much of northern Cochise counties through March. One precipitation event brought up to 150% of normal monthly precipitation in one day over parts of southern Graham and northern Cochise counties on March 1st, but the remainder of the month was dry. Soil moisture conditions were generally less than 30 percent of normal and San Carlos Reservoir was at less than 11 percent of capacity. Fuel moisture levels remained very low causing wildfire concerns.

What these are

Drought: A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Arizona in 2014 Every state in 2014 This day in weather history Warnings in Arizona, March 2014

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 509304, 509305, 509306, 509307, 509308, 509309.