Flood in Alaska, January 23 to 24, 2014

Name: Flood in Alaska, January 23 to 24, 2014
Start: 2014-01-23T10:00
End: 2014-01-24T12:00
Location: Alaska

January 23 to 24, 2014 · NWS AJK · 1 event in 1 county or zone

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

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The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: $17,000
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS AJK wrote it up.

A persistent anomalous high amplitude upper level ridge over the eastern Pacific and western North America started to build to the north and cutoff over Southeast Alaska in mid January. The series of atmospheric rivers that affected Southeast Alaska from the mid December through the end of January shifted to the west by the third week. This shift refocused the stream of moisture from the tropics to the west and was pointed right at the Northern Gulf of Alaska coast. This atmospheric river was evident from satellite imagery. When the warm front moved over the Yakutat area in the morning hours of the 23rd the weather sounding recorded the highest ever precipitable water value for that time of year, one point zero seven inches. There was about 36 hours of moderate to heavy precipitation as the front was slow to move across the area. The large amount of rain during that time period produced minor to moderate flooding over the Yakutat area.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 23, 5:45 AM AKST, 4 hours 15 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 23, 5:45 AM AKST, 4 hours 15 minutes before

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
545 AM AKST THU JAN 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...IT HAS BEEN A WET AND WARM NIGHT FOR THE PANHANDLE
AS A VERY MOIST WARM FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH. SOME 24 HOUR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN AROUND HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. YAKUTAT HAS BEEN THE BIG
WINNER THOUGH WITH 3.5 TO 4.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE LAST 24 HOURS
AND THE HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THEM. IN ADDITION
TO THE VERY WET WEATHER IT IS UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH TEMPS
REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT AND SNOW
LEVELS UP AROUND 8000 FT ACCORDING TO THE JUNEAU PROFILERS. WIND
HAS ALSO BEEN A FACTOR IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT WITH GUSTS
REACHING 40 TO 45 MPH FOR YAKUTAT, HAINES AND SKAGWAY THIS
MORNING AND GALE FORCE WINDS IN LYNN CANAL AND THE NORTHEAST
GULF.

 EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST, THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE
WILL SEE A GENERAL DRYING TREND THROUGH THE DAY AS WHAT IS LEFT
OF THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH INTO CANADA AND A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS EVEN FURTHER INTO THE AREA. FREDERICK SOUND NORTHWARD WILL
LIKELY SEE RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY JUST IN EVER DECREASING
AMOUNTS WHILE POINTS SOUTH WILL SEE MOST OF THEIR RAIN BEFORE
NOON. BY TONIGHT MOST OF THE PANHANDLE SHOULD BE DRY OR TO
GETTING TO THAT POINT AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD
NORTH AND WEST. YAKUTAT IS THE SOUL OUTLIER AS A STATIONARY FRONT
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL VERY
MOIST TROPICAL AIR INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ANOTHER 2 TO
4 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THERE TODAY WHILE ANOTHER 1 TO 3 IS
POSSIBLE FOR TONIGHT. SOME MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED AROUND
YAKUTAT BECAUSE OF THIS AS AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS WERE ALREADY
UNSEASONABLY HIGH FROM THE RECENT WARM AND WET WEATHER. THE SITUK
RIVER HAS ALREADY REACHED BANKFULL STAGE THIS MORNING AND IS
CURRENTLY HOVERING ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN BANKFULL AND MINOR FLOOD
STAGE. IT SHOULD BOUNCE AROUND BETWEEN MINOR AND BANKFULL FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY. THE MINOR FLOODING AND HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD
COME TO AN END FOR YAKUTAT LATER TONIGHT AS THE MOISTURE PLUME
GETS SHOVED OFF TO THE WEST BY THE RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLE AND A
WEAK WAVE THAT WILL BE RIDING NORTH ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT.

 THERE WAS ALSO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NOTED AROUND YAKUTAT BAY
AND MOUNT FAIRWEATHER LAST NIGHT. THIS WAS POSSIBLY DUE TO
ELEVATED CONVECTION AS THERE ARE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTIVE LAYERS
ON THE YAKUTAT RAOB AROUND 800 TO 600 MB OR IT IS JUST THE LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET STREAK SLAMMING INTO THE COAST MOUNTAINS AND
SPARKING OFF SOME TERRAIN FORCED CONVECTION. IN ANY CASE THEIR
HAS NOT BEEN MUCH ACTIVITY IN THE LAST FEW HOURS LENDING CREDENCE
TO THE TERRAIN FORCED CONVECTION BY THE LOW LEVEL JET, THE MAIN
CORE OF WHICH PUSHED ASHORE RIGHT AROUND THE TIME OF THE
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. STILL HAVE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE MORNING AROUND YAKUTAT AS THERE COULD STILL BE
ONE OR TWO STRIKES YET THIS MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STREAK
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.

 WINDS AROUND THE AREA SHOULD REACH THERE PEAK THIS MORNING AS
THE SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT PEAKS.
STRONG WIND HEADLINES REMAIN UP THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SKAGWAY
AND HAINES AS WELL AS A GALE WARNING FOR NORTHERN LYNN. WINDS
WILL STILL LIKELY BE BREEZY FOR THOSE AREA LATER TONIGHT AS THE
GRADIENT WILL TAKE A WHILE TO SLACKEN OFF. OUT IN THE GULF 30 KT
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS THE STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE IN
THE CENTRAL GULF. THOUGH THE WINDS IN YAKUTAT WILL CALM DOWN
BELOW STRONG WIND CRITERIA AS THE LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WEAKENS LATER TODAY.

 TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WARM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE PANHANDLE INTO TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S. TONIGHT LOW TEMPS COULD GET BACK DOWN INTO THE
UPPER TO MID 30S AS SOME BREAKS DEVELOP IN THE CLOUD COVER AND
THE WIND DIES OFF ALLOWING FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE
PLACE. THAT IS A DOUBLE EDGED SWORD HOWEVER AS THE COOLING COULD
ALSO CAUSE AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN MANY AREAS OF THE PANHANDLE SO
HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG IN THE PUBLIC FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

 SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
NOT MANY DIFFERENCES NOTED. DECIDED ON FAVORING THE ECMWF AGAIN.
AS IT HAS HAD THE BEST INITIALIZATION AND CONSISTENCY LATELY.

&&

.LONG TERM...MODELS REMAINED IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING
SOUTHEAST ALASKA. LOW LEVEL FEATURES WERE NICELY REFLECTED BY THE
ECMWF FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS AFFECTING THE
OUTER WATERS AND NORTHEAST GULF COAST....INCLUDING YAKUTAT AREA
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST
PACKAGE WITH THE ECMWF THROUGH SUNDAY AND MADE A FEW COSMETIC
TOUCHES FOR FINE TUNES.

 A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL MAKE THE UPPER RIDGE NARROWER AND
DRIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLE...THEN THE UPPER LOW WILL
INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA BY EARLY TUESDAY GENERATING A WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH THE MIDWEEK. THIS UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE WILL BE REFLECTED AT THE LOWER LEVEL AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
PASSAGE DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF ON SUNDAY THEN MOVE
ONSHORE OVER THE PANHANDLE BY MONDAY. THE ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE
CONTINUE HINTING SLOWER FORWARDING SPEED OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
KEPT THE FORECAST PACKAGE FOR NEXT WEEK AS THEY WERE INHERITED
WITH MINOR CHANGES FOR WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND SNOW
LEVELS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.

 UNDERNEATH THE PERSISTING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA WITH
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER...BUT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
THROUGH FRIDAY THEN SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST. PERSISTING
RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN MODERATE
INVERSION WITH GRADUAL DECREASE OF CLOUDINESS. RADIATION COOLING
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
PANHANDLE...EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

 THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GULF ON SUNDAY WILL
PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT WINDS ON SATURDAY THEN GALE FORCE WINDS ON
SUNDAY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS EXCEPT SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF ON SUNDAY...BUT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE
PANHANDLE THEN SHEARS APART THROUGH MONDAY. THE LONG RANGE MODELS
KEEP HINTING SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE AREA BY LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AKZ018-019.
         AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR AKZ017.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-043-051>053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031-033>036-041-042.

&&

EAL/AHN

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.

Flood, Yakutat Coastal

When: January 23, 10:00 AM AKST to January 24, 12:00 PM AKST
Where: Yakutat Coastal County, 7.66 mi NE of Yakutat to 25.55 mi W of Yakutat
Cause: Heavy Rain
Property damage: $17,000
Reported by: NWS Employee
Coordinates: 59.616, -139.554

The persistent onshore flow with numerous weather systems moving over the Yakutat area from mid December through the end of January produced thirty-four point forty-five inches in forty-four days with only two days of no rain. It was the 5th wettest forty-four day period on record for that time period with an daily average rainfall amount greater than three quarters of an inch. January was also the 4th wettest on record with three daily records on the, 5th(three point sixty one), 22nd(three point thirty six) and the 23rd(three point ninety five). Minor to moderate flooding was reported across the Yakutat area on the 23rd and 24th after seven point thirty one inches of rain fell at the airport and nine point ninety six inches fell at the Situk River gauge in just under 2 days. The combination of record rainfall amounts and very moist antecedent soil conditions produced a lot of runoff into streams and drainage ditches. The massive amount of runoff caused the Situk River to crest at seventy-two point seventy one feet which is the second highest crest in the 26 year record. The camp ground, trail and boat launch near the nine mile bridge along the Situk River flooded significantly. Forest Highway #10 going out to the upper Situk River and to the Harlequin Lake was flooded in certain areas with some spots along the road totally washed out. There was also flooding that took place along the lower portions of the Situk River with portions of the established trail system destroyed. The road going out to the lower Situk River landing near mile marker 4.2 was flooded and the road going out to Canon Beach was flooded with about a foot of water. The road going out to Tawa Creek and Lost River was also flooded.

What these are

Flood: Flooding that develops more slowly than a flash flood: rivers leaving their banks, or water standing over land for an extended time.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Alaska in 2014 Every state in 2014 This day in weather history Warnings in Alaska, January 2014

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 493055.