Lake-Effect Snow in Wisconsin, March 12 to 13, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
654 AM CDT TUE MAR 12 2013

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY BE VFR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT TUE MAR 12 2013/

SHORT TERM.../NOW - TONIGHT/

A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND LIFT
INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT. ITS PASSAGE WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A
WRAPAROUND LOBE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA TODAY...MAKING THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA THE
FOCUS FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TODAY AND THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION...THE SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN THE
NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE COMBINATION OF THE
COLD TEMPERATURES AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ACROSS NW WISCONSIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE THE MOST ACROSS THE GOGEBIC RANGE IN IRON
COUNTY WHERE A TOTAL OF ABOUT 2 TO 4 INCHES IS LIKELY BY LATE
TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
TODAY...TOO...BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN NW WISCONSIN SHOULD PEAK THIS
AFTERNOON...BEGIN TO WIND DOWN THIS EVENING...AND END BY LATE
TONIGHT.

RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED LOWER TEMPERATURES
TODAY...PROBABLY DUE TO THE CLOUDY SKIES...SO LOWERED THE HIGHS A
COUPLE DEGREES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND OR SLIGHTLY LESS THAN 10 DEGREES.

LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY - MONDAY/

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHLAND EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...ALLOWING SOME PARTIAL CLEARING DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THE CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE
SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER ALONG THE GOGEBIC RANGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS A WAVE IN NW FLOW PUSHES FROM THE DAKOTAS AND THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PRAIRIES...TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AT THIS
POINT...NOT LOOKING FOR TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW ON THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES...AND THE GFS WOULD
SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. A MUCH STRONGER CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM WILL DESCEND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS BY
FRIDAY MORNING...MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM.
THE GEM AND ECMWF TEND TO FAVOR THE SW HALF OF THE CWA WITH THE
GFS TAKING AIM AT THE ENTIRE CWA. BY LATER FRIDAY THE ECMWF AND
GFS ARE IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING ABOUT 3 TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF LIQUID QPF THROUGH THE DULUTH AREA. HAVE RAISED POPS QUITE
A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND WILL POSSIBLY NEED
TO CONTINUE TO RAISE POPS NORTHWARD WITH TIME IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND BUT
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ANY AMOUNTS WITH THIS WOULD BE MINIMAL. WILL ALSO NEED TO
WATCH FOR THE SYSTEM MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF BRINGING A LARGE QPF SHIELD ACROSS
THE REGION...BUT THE SURFACE LOW IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AND
STRONGER ON THE ECMWF. DESPITE THIS THE PCPN SHIELD IS MUCH LARGER
AND MORE BROAD ON THE ECMWF. SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR SURE AND RAISE
POPS WITH TIME.

AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/

MVFR CIGS WITH SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW E OF A SFC TROF
BISECTING THE FA WITH VFR W OF THE TROF AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
FORECAST. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST UNTIL AFTER 12Z WHEN
AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE DLH AND
HYR WHERE MVFR WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 21Z AT DLH AND LAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AT HYR WITH PERIODS OF LES SHOWERS.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  26  10  30  16 /  30  10   0  10
INL  26   5  29  14 /  20  10   0  20
BRD  29   9  30  17 /  30  10  10  20
HYR  29   9  32  14 /  70  50  10  10
ASX  28  13  30  15 /  70  60  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM....DAP
AVIATION...DAP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
408 AM CDT TUE MAR 12 2013

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-131200-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
408 AM CDT TUE MAR 12 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND IT COULD ACCUMULATE TO ABOUT 2 TO 4 INCHES
ACROSS THE GOGEBIC RANGE IN IRON AND ASHLAND COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A PASSING LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING UP TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SNOWFALL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

GROCHOCINSKI

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)