Drought in Texas, March 12 to 31, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1250 AM CDT TUE MAR 12 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY
THIS MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT
IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE LATER TODAY
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT MON MAR 11 2013/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 155 PM CDT MON MAR 11 2013/

SHORT TERM/NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH PRESSURE TO
DOMINATE IN THE SHORT TERM. THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO LIE IN
BETWEEN A BROAD RIDGE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND A DEEP TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. A VERY DRY NORTHWEST TO WEST MID TO UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TO PERSIST THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE VALLEY TONIGHT SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY AND
BECOMES REINFORCED BY ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO THE
ARKLATEX REGION. WE WILL ENJOY CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WEATHER AND
GOOD EVENING COMET VIEWING AS SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR. SLOW HUMIDITY
RECOVERY WITH DRY AIR ENTRENCHED OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
GULF. SOME SLOW MODIFYING OF THE AIRMASS TO TAKE PLACE WHEN WINDS
SHIFT EASTERLY AND INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT. ANY FIRE WEATHER THREAT
IS SUBDUED WITH A LACK OF WIND BUT THE EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS
WOULD ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT BURNING OF ANY FUELS. INHERITED
TEMPERATURES ARE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH COOL NIGHTS AND A MILD DAY
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE
FORECAST NUMBERS EQUAL OR ARE IN BETWEEN THEM. ONLY HAZARD TO
MENTION IS THE LINGERING ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK. STILL HIGH
RISK WITH SOME NORTHEAST SWELL AND HIGHER WINDS OFFSHORE. THE RISK
TO LOWER TUESDAY BUT COULD STILL BE AT A MODERATE RISK WITH
LINGERING NORTHEAST SWELL APPROACHING THE BEACH.

LONG TERM/WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... BENIGN WEATHER CONTINUES
FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. RIDGE OVER
THE PACIFIC COAST WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW HELPING PUSH SURFACE HIGH SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WEDNESDAY. THIS BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST/SOUTHEAST KEEPING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY UNDER EASTERLY FLOW
INCREASING WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE BETWEEN 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL RANGING
FROM 80 TO 85 OR HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND AND DOMINATE MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE GULF OF MEXICO VEERING THE GULF WINDS TO
THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTER OVER
THE NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE BORDER OF NEW MEXICO AND ARIZONA. THIS
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL SLOWLY INFILTRATE GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
ALLOWING FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
SIERRA MADRE THIS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
MOISTURE IS CONFINED OVER SOUTHERN PART OF THE GULF. LEFT THE
SILENT 10 PERCENT FOR THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AT THIS TIME AS THE SOUTH TEXAS REGION
WILL MAINLY BE INFLUENCE BY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SATURDAY
SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER IN
THE AREA AND SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A WEAK
LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD OVER THE SOUTH TEXAS COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THE SPREAD
NORTHEAST TUESDAY. WINDS ACROSS THE LAGUNA AND OFFSHORE TO DROP
OFF QUICKLY TONIGHT WITH SEAS STEADILY FALLING. AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST WINDS ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TO
VEER EAST. REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE TO PUSH SOUTH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY POSSIBLY INCREASING EAST WINDS BUT
REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW
COULD ALLOW FOR A LONG PERIOD EAST SWELL TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
BENIGN WEATHER FOR THE MARINE FORECAST THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY AS RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST WITH SEAS REMAINING BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET OVER
THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE
THURSDAY ALLOWING SEAS TO INCREASE UP TO 5 FEET. A SCEC MAY BE NEED
FOR THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS BUT THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE
MODELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A WEAK TROUGH OR CUT OFF LOW
DEVELOPING OVER BAJA CA. AT THIS TIME IT WILL NOT BE MUCH OF AN
IMPACT TO SOUTH TEXAS OR THE COASTAL WATERS AS THERE IS VERY LIMITED
HUMIDITY IN THE AREA TO WORK WITH. NO SCA CONDITIONS IS NOT EXPECT
AT THIS TIME FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  54  78  59  79 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNSVILLE          53  79  58  81 /   0   0   0  10
HARLINGEN            51  81  56  81 /   0   0   0  10
MCALLEN              54  82  59  83 /   0   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      54  83  58  84 /   0   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   56  77  61  78 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     TXZ251-256-257.

GM...NONE.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
713 PM CDT MON MAR 11 2013

TXZ251-256-257-130015-
KENEDY-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
713 PM CDT MON MAR 11 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENT RISK LOWERS TO A LOW THREAT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THEN
BECOMES ELEVATED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-130015-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
713 PM CDT MON MAR 11 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

TXZ248>250-252>255-130015-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-
713 PM CDT MON MAR 11 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

GB/MC